My own guess is there is a 50% chance of it ever acheiving $20k, and then maybe not until 2020 at earliest.
You realize that statements like these are really conservative, and very long term bearish about bitcoin... which causes me to conclude that you have some lack of appreciation for bitcoin's potential upside.
I do agree with you that the higher the expected future price, the lower the probability that it is going to happen, but it seems to me that when you use words like "ever" in your prediction, you are attempting to predict too many legs in a chain of future events that you have to be nearly completely speculating about since it is nearly impossible to accurately predict more than a few legs into the future at a time... and the further out you go the more any prediction is going to be based on a lot of factors currently unknown.
Hopefully your bearishness is not rubbing too much off into me...
I entirely agree with you !
50% is the probability I am assigning. 'Ever' is not a prediction, just a part of one of the possibilities.
Of course, I omitted to say that another scenario (part of the other 50% if you like), is that $100k is achieved before 2022.
All these numbers and time frames are speculation, yes, and subject to evolving circumstance. That is what this thread is for.
Hopefully I can present ideas that give others food for thought, and also prevent ppl from making errors in trading by being too myopic. My apparent bearishness is only a comparitive with general bullishness, and the greatest mistake IMO would be too become too mentally committed to a bullish outlook (and thus disillusionment) when we are merely in a long bear market, which will eventually turn round.
Low predictions of $2-3k are merely realistic scenarios, and are helping to avoid the mental pain of HODling in a downtrand.
For some reason, your posts come off as describing and emphasizing the BTC downside and downplaying BTC upside scenarios. Surely, when pressed, and even sometimes on your own volition you do mention that you are a long term BTC bull - while feeling compelled to "save us" from our own too much bullishness.
Remember also that in much of 2017, you seem to have been distracted into a lot of alt coin postings, which causs me to conclude that you have been too much into believing that there is some kind of meaningful contributions and potential competition coming out of alt coin camps rather than the more likely scenario that a lot of them are distractions (the tail rather than the dog... meaning that bitcoin is the dog... and better to pay attention to the dog rather than the tail)...
Anyhow, it could be helpful to go through a probability list of both upside and downside price scenarios, however, currently, I can concur that it is becoming more and more apparent that our current correction is lasting a bit longer than what I had thought to be likely - but such lasting BTC correction still does not mean that long and drawn out continued correction is inevitable, as you repeatedly assert... and sure, you could end up being correct, but that would not either mean that the long and drawn out downward scenario was inevitable or that you had somehow seen the future...
Let's say, for example, that you had 10 bitcoins, and you decided to sell 8 of them int he $14k to $19k price arena, and you are waiting for $3k or below to buy them back. I would think such a strategy to be gambling too much, even if such strategy ends up playing out, the odds don't seem too good. Likely you have a bit of a more moderate strategy, and even if you sold some of your coins, I cannot recall you disclosing that you are playing with shorts, right?
i am happy i am the biggest BTC bagholder @our place 
