Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1394. (Read 26723337 times)

Could go to 40K but it's more likely we reach 50K by April.

Happy New years people of the wall.

I have to read over this rake strategy, as it may be time to confront my reckless allocation and "let it ride" mentality. Like others, though, I have a working cash flow job and other tradfi allocations so there was never much of a need to liquidate. I have favored the feeling of saving in bitcoin.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Chumchum or rasgulla?

 I don't know too much about this particular cuisine but I'm pretty sure I recognize chumchum on the left (that's what I call my youngest daughter - she's a sweety), tandoori naan bread in the center and various meat and rice dishes that would probably be waaaaaay too spicy for my liking.

edit: too many a's not enough o's (fixing a spelling mistake) 

 Privacy? One of the criminals was an acquaintance of the victim.

"One of the kidnappers knew the victim personally. Each of them already has a criminal record, including under articles of robbery and extortion."
*translated from: https://ren.tv/news/v-rossii/1176251-banda-pokhitila-mainera-v-izhevske-i-potrebovala-15-mln-vykupa

 I think Robert A. Heinlein said it best, "Destination Moon"... oops I meant, “An armed society is a polite society. Manners are good when one may have to back up his acts with his life.”

 

Happy new year WOers.

We're already off to a good start, up a grand and a half today.

Onward and upward. Go Bitcoin go.

They (Berkshire) are NOT diversified, really...see the link (more than 50% of equity in one stock-AAPL).
https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Berkshire+Hathaway

That's the 'crazy' thing about it. 50% of ALL equity portfolio in ONE stock (AAPL).

WB is being jelly of Michael Saylor?

BTW, see my edit3-currently 68.7% in btc (vs yours 75%)-we are truly moving in parallel, or so it seems: almost the same year to start, roughly the same current btc %.
There maybe more stories like ours (maybe simply bacause we started at approximately the same time). Loved the incremeltalism vs chunkenism, lol...currently I am in "doing nothing" state, though.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Jan 1 2023 = 16.6k

Jan 1 2024 = 43.4k

Jan 1 2025 = ? 


my guess is  $113,467.47

No worries. Just enjoy this adventure and stay safe.

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Just a day at local wedding ceremony. Sharing some traditional and continental dishes in the dinner menu. Anyone has idea about these one's?

   
Photo credit: WatChe

2024 will bring us a new ATH which works for me.

Happy new years.

I will admit that I have adjusted my BTC bottom in fairly conservative ways, and in accordance to my entry-level fuck you status chart, my bottom for 2036 would range anywhere between $345k and $420k, and so I have to go with my numbers if talking about bottoms, especially since projecting based on mining mumbo jumbo does not really fit into considerations of something that needs to be accounted.. .. it will work itself out. one way or another and we likely just stay on some kind of an ongoing upward trajectory, and if we need to tweak it a bit here and there (such as every 6 months) to verify that we are still within the trajectory, and the trajectory is accounting for actual world happenings (such as where the BTC price is - especially the 200-week moving average), then yeah the real world facts may end up changing the trajectory.. .. including that mining likely mostly follows price rather than the other way around.


It reads like a lot of gobble-dee-gook (noise) to me.


Yeah, but how do you get to your initial allocation, and let's just presume that it would have had been 10% for bitcoin, even though I get the sense that you might have initially allocated lower than that... probably closer to 5%.. but let's just imagine that you decided you were going to allocate 10%?  how would you get there? How do you lump sum in?

For me, I did not even know what my target was for nearly a year, because I initially assigned myself a 6 month amount (a dollar amount), which happened to be an amount that I knew that I would have available within the next 6 months, and the same thing happened after I had gone through the first 6 months in order to assign myself a similar amount for the next 6 months.  So for me, I had not even realized that I had reached right around 10% until after I had been investing for a year.. so then at that point, I had started to consider that I had enough BTC... but still I let circumstances around me to continue to buy since the BTC price was pretty much flat (and even had gone down a bit more between November/December 2014 when I had made the determination that I had enough while being around 10%-ish..

Personally, I think that I was already going through some significant juggling around of my finances around that period, so I was in a kind of unusual place in terms of having cash available that I could assign towards buying BTC during 2014.. and during more typical times, I think that it would have probably taken me a couple of years to get to 10% - and part of my then issue was by 2013, I had already been investing for around 20 years, so getting to 10% as quickly as a year was actually a kind of lucky coincidence... but I could see some circumstances in which I could have had forced the 10% to happen in a year or less, if I had realized that was going to be my goal at the end of 2013 - even though I had not realized it until the end of 2014.


O.k. that was pretty similar to me in regards to having everything else in order in terms of the justification to mostly just let things ride, once they are in place... even though you and I have already figured out that I do have different practices from you in terms of mostly my incrementalism.. as compared with your seeming preference for chunckenism.


A difference between growing and preserving, and I personally had always been conservative prior to bitcoin, so maybe I cannot even see myself investing into bitcoin prior to my having had already built up a pretty decent investment portfolio through years and years and years of conservativism.. and largely around 5.5% average annual returns, even though some years performed better than others.


I am not really disagreeing with you on the concentration point, especially once bitcoin was discovered/invented.. I can see how any newbie could start out with just BTC and cash and then ONLY diversify after a few years of building his holdings..   diversification is not needed in the beginning of investing, but it does become more necessary once a person has built up his investment portfolio, perhaps when it starts to get anywhere between 25% to 2x of annual income, then maybe diversification starts to become necessary...

And in regards to Buffet's diversification, isn't Berkshire already diversified within itself? or are you referring to something else?

My policy (since 2001-2002 crash) is to never invest more than 20% in any one item (in reality, it is usually no more than 5% and at most 10%), BUT once I invest, I don't re-jig the portfolio to "balance" it. In case of btc, it has grown significantly in %% (EDIT3: I just calculated it to be 68.7% at this moment). I invested in many winning stocks before: AAPL and TSLA are just two examples [EDIT: forgot to say that I recently found a brokerage slip that said that I also invested in AMZN in Jan 2002 at some ridiculously low price, only to sell it few months later at 2X, lol], but I had a habit of selling them after, say, 10X (for AAPL; or lower-for AMZN) of my money and/or too much portfolio %%, missing on another 10X as a result. Bitcoin is the first asset where I don't do "balancing" in principle.

Consider me reckless, but since I have work cash flow, future pension and SSec lined up plus IRAs, why not? Nobody got really rich by following the "balanced" portfolio. On the other hand, if you already "made it" to, say, 5-10X of @JJG  FU status, then I see some benefit in balancing things out. BTW, Warren Buffet is ridiculously overweight in just a few stocks at 93 (I believe that just three stocks, with one being AAPL, are more than 50% of his entire equity portfolio). Is he chasing the performance or just being competitive?

EDIT2: Warren Buffet taught Bill Gates diversification, so now Bill is worth 120 bil, but he had at some point about 33% of MSFT stock (most of which he sold to 'deversify'). 33% would have made him almost a first trillionaire (922bil), with 7bil 376mil yearly dividend. I think he could have "survived" on that divvy alone (with no stock sales needed). The "funny part" is that WB probably learned something from that since he did the exact opposite and vastly increased his portfolio concentration (maybe after observing what "happened" to Bill Gates). In actuality, Gates is probably happy with what he's got, regardless of what could have been.

Asset managers that submitted timely filings could launch spot #Bitcoin    ETFs as early as January 10, the 🇺🇸 SEC's decision date for Ark/21Shares ETF.

SEC could notify issuers by Tuesday or Wednesday for approval, per Reuters


Source

Fuck New Year 2024 bring more new new happyness it's going to be a crazy new year.. Another day of new year guys..


2023 close: $42,258. Up +156% from $16,528 in 2022. Ready for ETFs and halving in 2024!.. This new year is going to crazy...


jamie dimon shoving as much bitcoin as he can up his butt before the ETF is approved.




Happy BTCBitcoin 2024.. HODL it's $43k

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

In regards to your clickable link, that is pretty interesting to put right around 745 images ((31*24)+1) in one 30-31 second clip... I was very tempted to just throw it into this response as an image, since many guys (and gal) tend to be reluctant to click on links, even when your description had already mostly prepared us (the reader who presumptively possesses some kind of a click-button function) for what it is.

Seeing the whole month like that contributes to my wee bit of curiosity regarding whether that $49k-ish sell wall is going to end up reappearing when (if?) we start to get back into the $44ks.. and surely if the sell wall had been removed, it could potentially return, but such sell wall of similar quantities of cornz "supposedly for sale" would not necessarily need to be placed at the same exact price point as it had been previously placed.



I have mixed feelings about it, and surely a significant part of my whole bitcoin holding and/or bitcoin portfolio management philosophy has been to try to figure out how to find and to maintain comfort points to such a level that I am mostly emotionally neutral in regards to BTC price direction (especially in the short term, but surely even trying to apply that towards the longer term, too.. even though emotional neutrality is likely not 100% achievable).

I had come to conclude that my system of selling on the way up and buying on the way down helps to achieve what I mostly believe to be emotional neutrality, and some folks engage in reallocation from time to time, and others maybe invest a lot less and then just let it ride.. so there are various ways to deal with an attempt to maintain some semblance of emotional neutrality, to the extent possible.

By the way, another thing that I believe causes some level of emotional neutrality for me is that even when I got into bitcoin, I considered that my whole non-BTC holdings could support my lifestyle, and when I invested into bitcoin, I did not take from any of those investments, and sure even the first year or two that I was in BTC, I did not really add to any of my traditional investments either, I largely just let my BTC allocation get to the point that it was which was 10% in late 2014 and around 13.5% in late 2015... so if we look at the performance of my non-BTC investments, they largely increased in value by around 80%-ish in 10 years while BTC increased in value by around 40x (even if we measure from the top of the 2013 price points, which might still not be fair to BTC, but that's ok... it still kicked ass compared to traditional investments, absent some abilities of people to be able to have had picked some select stocks rather than my largely having various diversification in various index funds, bonds and properties)


O.k. .. from your forum registration date, you may well be very similar to me in terms of starting at the top of a cycle, but just one cycle later, and maybe some of your numbers end up coming out differently based on the 2021 cycle top not being as extreme as the 2017 cycle top.. ...  .. but gosh I have so much trouble to consider shaving off large portions of BTC.. so maybe I have some mental deficiencies that I side so much in favor of incremental sales rather than selling in chunks, even though perhaps once in a while there may well end up being some benefits to selling larger than my customary chunks... yet I have gone through some tweaking from time to time.. .. so for example, if I had some sales that were set to be selling 1% every time that the BTC price went up 10%, then maybe I would adjust my sales amount down to three or 0.8% at the beginning of a run and then anticipate that I will increase it to 1.2% towards the end of the run, so then I change my incrementalism in incremental ways to try to be less aggressive in certain points and then more aggressive in other points, and if the BTC price does not end up performing as expected, then I might end up having some regrets about how I had structured it since the whole cycle did not end up playing out, only part of it did...

It is like the guy who gets pissed off in the last cycle because he had his sales set at  $85k, $115k and $145k in the last cycle, and none of his sales ended up getting hit, so then he is stuck with having to wait a whole another cycle for the possibility of making his sales to the extent that  he does not end up adjusting them upwards, but at least with mine, they are more incremental, so I still end up getting something out of my choices because various of my sales are sure to hit and they are also going to end up being somewhat close to the top, even if I don't have any chunk sales in there.. which surely I consider to be less stressful, because I establish them in advance and I don't really need to get BIG numbers to have satisfaction all along the way.  Almost like continuous satisfaction.  hahahahaha


If you are referring to USG Ibonds, I have a hard time getting excited about those kinds of ploys, even though I understand that some folks did get into those, but really not a great time to be taking from BTC, but sure if you have cash sitting around, maybe it would be o.k. to lock it up into those nominally appreciating products that have questionable real term performance...especially if we saw what had been happening in 2020 and thereafter with a lot of the money printer go burr matters..and the likely desperation of the US Govt. in some respects, even though the USD remains the strongest of the weak fiat currencies.  


some commodities might make sense.. sure.


Surely customizing the tools to your own circumstances remains a good thing.  The raking one does seem more applicable to someone who might feel that he has not quite accumulated enough BTC yet, even though both of them do seem to presume a status of overaccumulation, and we can define our "overaccumulation" levels however, we believe makes sense to us.

Another thing with the website one, with the monthly withdrawals, that one could be used for a particular set aside stash, so if a person has 20 BTC, then maybe he might choose to ONLY put 10 BTC into the formula, or if he decided to put the whole thing in there, then maybe he chooses a real low withdrawal rate that might ONLY be 2% since he considers himself to be more in a growth phase. .but at the same time, there can be a bit of futility that is felt for anyone to be engaging in selling of any of his BTC when in the whole scheme of things, he may well consider himself to be in a BTC accumulation phase.  


You look like you are in a hole (after an avalanche).  Hopefully you are able to get out.  Maybe you won't want to have your location so secret when you are wanting us to call for help (on your behalf).

Also, since there is no WO sign, any of us should be questioning authenticity.


Ok.. I will remember to come to you when I want my money back.

A great start of the year...

Possibly $45k+ within the first week?

January will be fun.



HNY man!

This sounds awful. Never had infections in my ears, but have heard it can be nasty.

Get well soon, you can't miss January -- the popcorn month! (read: ETF and other fun stuff...)

Quick HNY from me to all of the WO (except the well known trolls)!
Despite all the best wishes, i suffered a rather painful middle ear infection overnight, almost no sleep but also no party  
On the other hand, it can only get better