Explanation
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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1430. (Read 26720873 times)
December 16, 2023, 01:03:26 PM
December 16, 2023, 12:03:22 PM
December 16, 2023, 11:28:00 AM
Everybody expects the imminent ETF bull run, but then it would be a first bull run I am aware of that was predicted, discussed and "implemented'.
Personally, I see a more complex trajectory:
Whatever the price is at ETF approval, I see a flat to 10% reduction during the first 4-6 mo "post ETF" with a possibility of a short duration 20-30% run up just before the halving, most likely followed by an equivalent "Bart" down with btc price at $40-50K (maybe it be would smack in the middle of that range at $45K) by May-June 2024 followed by an increasingly strong bull for the next 6-16 mo, with a possibility of at least a first wave (if it would have two humps) peaking in Dec 2024 and the second one in September-November of 2025.
Of course, no need to sell during any of those presumed flat or slight down periods.
Personally, I see a more complex trajectory:
Whatever the price is at ETF approval, I see a flat to 10% reduction during the first 4-6 mo "post ETF" with a possibility of a short duration 20-30% run up just before the halving, most likely followed by an equivalent "Bart" down with btc price at $40-50K (maybe it be would smack in the middle of that range at $45K) by May-June 2024 followed by an increasingly strong bull for the next 6-16 mo, with a possibility of at least a first wave (if it would have two humps) peaking in Dec 2024 and the second one in September-November of 2025.
Of course, no need to sell during any of those presumed flat or slight down periods.
So, you're a "sell the news" kind of guy.
I understand that people have this attitude because it comes from when whales were playing the street and treating bitcoin like a speculative low liquidity asset that nobody watches, so you had situations like Musk buying, telling the world he bought, selling, telling the world he sold. Or Jamie Dimon saying bitcoin is for scammers and then opening a trading desk to make some money on the side.
I also have this contrarian voice stuck inside my head saying that it can't be that easy. Black Rock tells people to buy and you buy and get 100% profit in a year? No, if that was true then everybody would won and statistics say that over 80% of investors lose money... but...
Let's cover some buts
How many random people will listen to Black Rock? How many random people will listen to people like Keiser, Long, Mow, Back, Saylor, Vays... Bitcoiners know these names but more than 90% of random people you'd ask wouldn't recognize them.
What I'm saying here is that we're biased because we already hold bitcoin and we read all these predictions from both sides and there's been so many of these positive ones that we're overwhelmed. We start getting into conspiracy theories, thinking it can't be that easy, but in the real big world we're the small group that actually listens and cares. Most people will treat it like gossip and not act. They'll talk with their spouses, put it between what Harry and Meghan are doing and the recent bombardments in Syria and ask if they maybe should allocate some money into bitcoin and then they'll never do it.
Bottom line is, the demand is going to be much greater this time. There's not much dumb money for the street to take advantage of anymore and you can see it in statistics that show HODL rates. They're at all time highs. When the street finally sees this demand it will be too late for them to go in. Maybe they'll scrape some profit from the top. I believe the demand is going to surprise us this time and this bull market will last longer than the previous one.
December 16, 2023, 11:01:15 AM
December 16, 2023, 10:01:18 AM
December 16, 2023, 09:01:16 AM
December 16, 2023, 08:46:00 AM
Well, it seems that the Bitcoin ETFs by Greescacle may have good results by 2024, possibly in January:
SEC Chair Gary Gensler Hints at Revised Approach to Bitcoin ETFs Following Recent Legal Rulings
Source: https://www.cryptointelligence.co.uk/sec-chair-gary-gensler-hints-at-revised-approach-to-bitcoin-etfs-following-recent-legal-rulings/
The things that can be approved in terms of ETFs that were denied, can become a fact again, if this is approved we will surely have a good Bullish effect on the price , if that happens we would be off to a good Start in 2024.
And I really Like something, the possible reputation That bitcoin can have, because these things can be Very positive to be able to have a price of yesteryear :
Twitter Source: https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1735770699900362814
Original Source: https://u.today/bitcoin-btc-price-well-north-of-120000-tuur-demeesters-forecast
I think that the next ATH will be more than $120k , for me it can be between $160k-$170k, because the ETFs depending on whether they approve them, well it can be something very significant, everyone will want bitcoin and will want to buy , when it comes out in the news that Bitcoin is worth $100k or more, that will be totally crazy.
SEC Chair Gary Gensler Hints at Revised Approach to Bitcoin ETFs Following Recent Legal Rulings
Quote
Although these applications have faced delays, some analysts anticipate a potential batch approval in early January 2024.
In another interview with Bloomberg’s Kailey Leinz on the same day, Gensler avoided disclosing the number of spot Bitcoin product filings.
Instead, he highlighted recent developments in the U.S. treasury market as the agency’s current priority.
U.S. Representative Bryan Steil commented on Twitter, criticizing Gensler’s handling of the crypto-related questions:
“Chair Gary Gensler obfuscates on crypto with the press like he does at committee hearings. He does not want to explain his agency’s aggressive regulatory approach which is pushing crypto offshore.
In another interview with Bloomberg’s Kailey Leinz on the same day, Gensler avoided disclosing the number of spot Bitcoin product filings.
Instead, he highlighted recent developments in the U.S. treasury market as the agency’s current priority.
U.S. Representative Bryan Steil commented on Twitter, criticizing Gensler’s handling of the crypto-related questions:
“Chair Gary Gensler obfuscates on crypto with the press like he does at committee hearings. He does not want to explain his agency’s aggressive regulatory approach which is pushing crypto offshore.
Source: https://www.cryptointelligence.co.uk/sec-chair-gary-gensler-hints-at-revised-approach-to-bitcoin-etfs-following-recent-legal-rulings/
The things that can be approved in terms of ETFs that were denied, can become a fact again, if this is approved we will surely have a good Bullish effect on the price , if that happens we would be off to a good Start in 2024.
And I really Like something, the possible reputation That bitcoin can have, because these things can be Very positive to be able to have a price of yesteryear :
Quote
1/ Our report from last April predicted “for bitcoin to trade in a range of $22k to $42k, until a new multi-year bull market pushes it well north of $120k.” Now that bitcoin trades at $42k, let’s review our analysis & recommendations in a summary thread. pic.twitter.com/kPYMYaauEG — Tuur Demeester (@TuurDemeester) December 15, 2023 The "endgame" target of this cycle remains "well north of $120,000," says Demeester. Bitcoin (BTC) reached $42,000 on Dec. 5, 2023.
Twitter Source: https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1735770699900362814
Original Source: https://u.today/bitcoin-btc-price-well-north-of-120000-tuur-demeesters-forecast
I think that the next ATH will be more than $120k , for me it can be between $160k-$170k, because the ETFs depending on whether they approve them, well it can be something very significant, everyone will want bitcoin and will want to buy , when it comes out in the news that Bitcoin is worth $100k or more, that will be totally crazy.
December 16, 2023, 08:01:16 AM
December 16, 2023, 07:01:19 AM
December 16, 2023, 06:01:16 AM
December 16, 2023, 05:01:15 AM
December 16, 2023, 04:20:23 AM
December 16, 2023, 04:01:18 AM
December 16, 2023, 03:28:14 AM
This year is ending with a bitcoin price $60k?
Source 1.
BTCUSD technical analysis (Chart).
Many people are still buying...
Source 2.
Source 3.
Source 4.
My opinion:
If we look at all the above things well, then we can notice that before the end of this year, the price of Bitcoin is going to be higher, maybe it can exceed $60 thousand. we may have to wait until December 19, 2023 to see them, only then will we actually know how many pips Bitcoin ends the year at.
Maybe we're going to see something like Rocket and it's too soon.
Edited.
BTC/USD: Bitcoin Consolidates Near $41K After 8% Drop Kicks Off Weekly Trading
Market participants endured the worst single-day performance in nine months, but Bitcoin is still up 150% on the year.
Bitcoin prices BTC/USD consolidated near the $41,000 threshold on Wednesday after a cold plunge of 8% took traders by surprise on Monday. The top crypto asset suffered its worst day in nine months after profit taking clipped some of Bitcoin’s recent gains on the back of the highly-coveted spot Bitcoin ETF.
With that in mind, BTC has pulled back from its 2023 peak of $44,700, hit last week, which was the highest point seen since April 2022. Traders who bought in early this year shouldn’t worry about the fresh drop – Bitcoin flaunts a hefty 150% year-to-date gain, outperforming nearly all large-cap assets.
Undeterred prospects for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF continue to steer the token’s price trajectory. Active talks between the US financial watchdog, the SEC, and BlackRock, the asset manager who awaits a decision on its BTC ETF application, are improving the crypto investment climate on Wall Street.
Market participants endured the worst single-day performance in nine months, but Bitcoin is still up 150% on the year.
Bitcoin prices BTC/USD consolidated near the $41,000 threshold on Wednesday after a cold plunge of 8% took traders by surprise on Monday. The top crypto asset suffered its worst day in nine months after profit taking clipped some of Bitcoin’s recent gains on the back of the highly-coveted spot Bitcoin ETF.
With that in mind, BTC has pulled back from its 2023 peak of $44,700, hit last week, which was the highest point seen since April 2022. Traders who bought in early this year shouldn’t worry about the fresh drop – Bitcoin flaunts a hefty 150% year-to-date gain, outperforming nearly all large-cap assets.
Undeterred prospects for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF continue to steer the token’s price trajectory. Active talks between the US financial watchdog, the SEC, and BlackRock, the asset manager who awaits a decision on its BTC ETF application, are improving the crypto investment climate on Wall Street.
Source 1.
BTCUSD technical analysis (Chart).
Many people are still buying...
Source 2.
Quote from: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/SoO8rayh-Still-Bearish-Part-2-Name-Your-Altcoin
It seems I called this one too early but I was not wrong, it is just too early... Do we agree?
It is not that Bitcoin will not enter a correction just that it is yet to do so, but things are looking good.
Since I've been gone for a while I need to know which Altcoins you are interested in, which Altcoins should I update first?
Bitcoin is looking great but the price already reached the April 2022 high which is the top for this bullish wave. So, watch out, it can go higher but a correction can develop at anytime.
The Altcoins are different though, specially the medium sized and smaller ones.
These can show plenty of room available for additional growth.
So let me know in the comments section which Altcoins you want me to look at first and I will publish everyday.
You will have to look into my profile in order to find the updates, daily.
I will do them all, one by one.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
It is not that Bitcoin will not enter a correction just that it is yet to do so, but things are looking good.
Since I've been gone for a while I need to know which Altcoins you are interested in, which Altcoins should I update first?
Bitcoin is looking great but the price already reached the April 2022 high which is the top for this bullish wave. So, watch out, it can go higher but a correction can develop at anytime.
The Altcoins are different though, specially the medium sized and smaller ones.
These can show plenty of room available for additional growth.
So let me know in the comments section which Altcoins you want me to look at first and I will publish everyday.
You will have to look into my profile in order to find the updates, daily.
I will do them all, one by one.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Source 3.
Bitcoin: Overlooking The Wave Count?
Bitcoin appears to be in a smaller magnitude Wave 4 (see chart) which implies one more push higher to complete the impulse structure. such a move can see price into the mid to high 46Ks over the next couple of weeks. While this is good news for those who have been or are looking to go long, there is one technical problem that is likely being overlooked by most.
Bitcoin appears to be in a smaller magnitude Wave 4 (see chart) which implies one more push higher to complete the impulse structure. such a move can see price into the mid to high 46Ks over the next couple of weeks. While this is good news for those who have been or are looking to go long, there is one technical problem that is likely being overlooked by most.
Source 4.
My opinion:
If we look at all the above things well, then we can notice that before the end of this year, the price of Bitcoin is going to be higher, maybe it can exceed $60 thousand. we may have to wait until December 19, 2023 to see them, only then will we actually know how many pips Bitcoin ends the year at.
Maybe we're going to see something like Rocket and it's too soon.
Edited.
December 16, 2023, 03:13:04 AM
Corporations will now be able to report btc gains on their asset if they hold it, pumping their overall stock price value for EOY reporting.
Funny how a major barrier to corporate bitcoin holding adoption is changed right before the coming Bitcoin ETF approvals?
What amazing timing! I'm shocked, shocked I tells ya! /s
https://twitter.com/davidmarcus/status/1734974716505649531
Funny how a major barrier to corporate bitcoin holding adoption is changed right before the coming Bitcoin ETF approvals?
What amazing timing! I'm shocked, shocked I tells ya! /s
https://twitter.com/davidmarcus/status/1734974716505649531
This is indeed a big deal but it’ll be another year before it goes into effect so the timing of it being announced right before the ETF approval doesn’t mean much. What it does mean is that a perfect storm is once again brewing for the 4 year ATH to get set in mid/late 2025. Exciting for people who are already happy with the $40K price.
As JJG said, but it might have been covered in words, the fair value accounting for bitcoin can be adopted by companies already in Q1 2024:
Quote
Early adoption is permitted for both interim and annual financial statements that have not yet been issued (or made available for issuance). If amendments are adopted in an interim period, they must be adopted as of the beginning of the fiscal year that includes that interim period.
https://fasb.org/page/getarticle?uid=fasb_Media_Advisory_12-13-23 
December 16, 2023, 03:03:18 AM
Corporations will now be able to report btc gains on their asset if they hold it, pumping their overall stock price value for EOY reporting.
Funny how a major barrier to corporate bitcoin holding adoption is changed right before the coming Bitcoin ETF approvals?
What amazing timing! I'm shocked, shocked I tells ya! /s
https://twitter.com/davidmarcus/status/1734974716505649531
Funny how a major barrier to corporate bitcoin holding adoption is changed right before the coming Bitcoin ETF approvals?
What amazing timing! I'm shocked, shocked I tells ya! /s
https://twitter.com/davidmarcus/status/1734974716505649531
You can always tell that something big is about to happen when corporation standards start changing quickly...
I think we’re seeing the Santa Claus rally due a little as people start window dressing their portfolios for the end of the year
Huh? How do you mean?
December 16, 2023, 03:01:14 AM
December 16, 2023, 02:44:22 AM
I think we’re seeing the Santa Claus rally due a little as people start window dressing their portfolios for the end of the year and taking profits or rebalancing. This might cause a stall in the price for a bit but I suspect we’ll see the rally resume once tax returns start making their way to the market. Too much positive news for it to end here.
December 16, 2023, 02:18:23 AM
. December 16, 2023, 02:01:14 AM
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