WithdrawingMany posts I see and folks I have talked to about this prefer the 200wma as a more stable way to project value of their holdings. I am not quite sold on that method just yet but, I am still maybe 8-10 years away from wanting to do this. The other method that I am looking at is withdrawing approximately 500 days after a halving. Below is a chart I have posted that I will continue to watch in the coming years.
The chart shows an obvious ideal sell period of approximately 500 days after a halving. However, then we come to the obstacle in the road of "past performance does not guarantee future results". Since I am still in the accumulating phase, I have some years left to see if this cycle continues. I've seen others hypothesize that future halvings may not have the same impact as past halvings. There are obviously many factors that go into valuing BTC vs the the US Dollar and it is impossible to project how the future may play out.
If BTC did not continue to follow the 4 year cycle I currently see and become more stable then that may even be a better scenario in being able to withdraw on a yearly basis only the amount needed to continue to the next year.
Of course there are going to be challenges in any attempt to rely on a time-based approach to playing the nearly inevitable BTC price waves rather than a price-based approach to playing such waves.. .. Surely, a time-based approach seems to devolve in an attempt to trade.... in a kind time in the market is better than timing the market kind of prohibition (cautionary tale).
I am not even suggesting that you are wrong to make such an attempt
(but you are wrong.. hahahahahaha.. cough, cough, cough).., and the fact of the matter is that we can do whatever we like in terms of trying to manage our price expectations including trying to figure out the BTC price waves that are inevitable but we do not know how strong they will be, which direction they will go or how long they will last, even though you are trying to play that game with fractals... and yeah, it may work, but it may not..
From the perspective of this here cat, a price-framed approach seems much more calming. You let the price come to you, and if it ends up reaching your various points, you pull the trigger, and if it does not reach you, then you just wait it out, and if you are anxious, then you can tweak the price points to make them execute more frequently and at lower amounts, and if you play them right, you are still going to get action at several points in the process, and you would not need to be greedy in the whole matter.. calm, cool and collected and collecting various cash outs along the way.
One of the reasons that some people get nervous about cashing out some BTC early is because they have not yet reached a place in which they even should be cashing out. So that might be another consideration in that if you are not ready to be cashing out, then you should not be doing it... wait until you have enough BTC (or more than enough BTC) to be cashing out.. and if that might take one or two more cycles, then so be it. You already mentioned that you have 8-10 more years before you are even thinking about starting to regularly withdraw your BTC, which tells me that you are not at the point of withdrawing any yet.. even though you already have it in your head that you are going to try to time this upcoming price wave.. which may or may not end up working to your advantage. and of course, peeps can do whatever they like... and let's see how it plays out.
By the way.. either of those HypoMyth charts that show 1) no presumption of buying back and also 2) presumptions of having some buy back success. Either of those charts are fairly aggressive on the sell amounts - and yeah, of course, they are both price-based approaches rather than time-based approaches. As you likely have noticed, I am a wee bit hostile
(not totally hostile, but a wee bit) to time-based approaches, even though surely they do sometimes work, so it is nothing personal against you, because I frequently get into tussles with guys in these here parts about time-based approaches, even though such time-based approaches sometimes do end up working out
(at least seemingly more profitable than a price-based approach in those circumstances) in their having had deployed such time-based tactics.
