Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1445. (Read 26710469 times)

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Thanks! I thought as much, I need to save that link incase of reference though 

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Do they really knows what's a good entry point as described in his post?
How could a real bitcoiner chooses a higher entry level than the lower as you said 😂
Does fiat appreciate overtime?
No!
So why don't they take profit in BTC? (Because they wanna secure there investment) does this really matter?
I hold tight to BTC.

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap

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"So you had #Bitcoin but sold it 48 days before a likely spot ETF approval and 152 days before the 2024 halving?"



(just joking @philipma1957, half)

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I read it too, not in much detail...there is a lot of info.
@jjg plan is a "mechanical" proposal that works, but i don't think that @philipma1957 (or a theoretical HypoPhil) is following the 1% sale after 10% up.
He might be selling either more or less and mostly looks at it to fund his lifestyle, which is totally fine.
The initial proposal by Rpitiela had 10% sell after 100% rise, which is quite different than 1% after 10%.
My feeling is that 1% sell after 10% rise is too "granular".
Today's WSJ article actually opines that with the taming of Binance (and assuming ETF comes relatively soon), bitcoin and the rest would swiftly come into the government control, in the author's words :


https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/the-end-of-cryptos-dream-to-escape-from-government-110aeca9

WSJ is probably mostly wrong, but not entirely, I feel.
Some "soul searching" among participants would be in play in the next 12-18 mo.
With most mining being controlled by larger corporations/entities and bitcoin flows largely controlled by the upcoming ETF(s), who will be in control of btc? Investors in ETF/mining companies?
With that, I still hope that the essence of bitcoin would endure all of this.

Yeah, you don't lose if you don't sell, and that would be especially true if the kid was able to distinguish between bitcoin and crypto, because who the hell knows what he was investing in if he was referring to his investment as "crypto."

Another thing is to have enough conviction to continue to buy during the rougher periods, so anyone who got into bitcoin prior to May 2022 could be in profits by now, but would not necessarily be in profits by now if he might have front loaded his investment.  Let's say that he bought $50k worth of bitcoin in early 2022, so he bought somewhere in the upper $40ks, and surely if he bought at various points in 2022, he may well have been paying in the $50ks or even in the $60ks, so if he might have continued to buy over the next year and a half... so then let's do it...

Let's say that he bought 1 BTC for $55k (around the November 2022 ATH ) and then he continued to buy around $500 per week for the past two years in order to end up matching his initial front loading with another $52k and around 2.132 BTC.  So then he would have had invested $107k, and he would have 3.132 BTC ($118,390) which is right around 10% in profits based on current prices...

If he did something like that, then he would not be in a bad place, and sure of course, we could tweak the numbers and the timelines, but it seems to me that most times, the longer that any of are in BTC then the more likely we are in profits, especially if we emphasize accumulate and hodl through buying and not fucking around with either shitcoins or selling as a technique to accumulating more BTC... especially not beginners who are buillding their BTC stashes.


Yeah, it is appears that my HypoPhil is much more stringent in the ways that he sells his BTC, and of course there are ways that you can tweak the formula to sell more at specific times, such as not selling anymore than 50% upon a doubling.. but maybe even selling more than 25% if you had more longer term expectations, so it is more difficult to blame you for some of your concerns about holding too much BTC, and so maybe it still bothers me when some members blanketedly compare us, and it seems that I am employing my system quite a bit more more strictly than you, and even though I got into bitcoin in 2013/2014 rather than your earlier 2011/2012 dates, feel that I was never held back from significant consumption through each of the years and even starting in 2016, I was barely in profits with my BTC, but it seemed that my consumptive levels were going up.. and I have had some pretty decent consumption periods most of the years, but I did gravitate towards some deferred gratification and deferred consumption in 2022.. .. which kind of carried into early 2023 - even though I could have been consuming more, and even within my 1% per quarter of my BTC holdings, but I chose to under-consume during that time.

But yeah, if you have been consuming your BTC in amounts that are more than 4% to 10% per year and maybe even not attempting to figure out your consumption levels based on how far we are from the 200-week moving average, then you may well would have had been overly consuming from time to time, including but not limited to 2022.;. but those are measure and balances that you would need to figure out.

Yeah I read it. I am comfortable at my methods which will mean less profits but greatly reduce losses.

At 66 soon to be 67 and no children I am not looking to leave a legacy to the kids.

My methods were always based on taking enough profit every year to make my life more comfortable.

So I enjoyed increased income from 2013 on every year but one. 2022. I made 2022 a certain loss by selling at 22k .  But I did a dca started it in nov  2022  so I will turn a profit this year if I sell or dont sell.
which is why I ear marked some corn to sell via ladder up.

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The last year and a half has been a good entry point too, especially for anyone who had not already been buying all the way dow from $69k to $15,479, and perhaps running out of money to buy MOAR BTC at various points in time.

Anyhow you do you, if you are just getting in, then better late than never, and I suppose that even if some of us might have NOT been able to buy a lot of coins between $15,479 and $25k, we were probably able to pick up some coins in that price range..

My own personal BTC portfolio does not really need too many more BTC, but the last year and a half - especially between around May 2022 and January 2023, there were a lot of great entry points.. and most of that time was below $25k, so there is some value in being able to recognize value, including that the 200-week moving average is really getting close to $29k, but if you think about it, it spent the whole last year and a half gravitating up from around $22k in May 2022 and then getting into the current $29k level which surely was ONLY around a 30% increase for the past 18 months, so I suppose that we could complain that bitcoin was ONLY moving up 20% per year in the past year and a half. which still is really nothing to sneeze about.

By the way, I did recently upgrade both my fuck you status chart (which I explain in this post), and I show the more conservative (possibly overly conservative) update in this post that goes all the way to 2078,


and I finally posted a chart and a first attempt at a somewhat comprehensive explanation about the ways to manage and sustain a kind of perpetual cashing out of BTC[/b], for anyone who might be getting to those maintenance (and desires to cash out a kind of perpetual liquidation) stages of our bitcoin journey... I am quite proud of the substantive presentations of this piece, even though I likely will consider ways to tweak it and even spending decent amounts of time explaining (and referring to it, when relevant)... especially since it is not obvious in and of itself how to read it and how to apply it...   but my hypothetical accounts therein are using a starting point of 21 BTC in each of them starting in September 2022 for that particular hypothetical, but still good to attempt to grapple with the ideas and maybe even plug your own BTC holding numbers into a similar kind of accounting.  

I did not want to show that particular table/chart with my own 0.63 BTC holdings as the hypothetical because I was trying to make the ideas contained therein to be a bit more relevant to higher levels of BTC holders.. and 21 BTC seemed to be a good kind of a starting point for a budget that might even be able to supplement income or be total amounts to live or maybe to fund projects under such guidelines, and some of the budgeting/funding ideas remind me of some of my discussion with Deathwish (about funding developers or something like that) around a year and a half ago when he was seeming to panic (to the extent we believe his story) about his own over-leverage and failure/refusal to build his BTC holdings rather than gambling (and getting greedy) with them, and even some of his seeming involvement with shitcoins and pressing some of his seemingly stubborn ideas on then members of the thread, which some of the panic and overleveraging seemed to have had been the lesson of a lot of BTC holders in mid-to-late 2022.  



Yeah, he seems kind of weird, lost and potentially disingenuous to me, too.

By the way Phil, didn't you see my post referring to a couple of HypoPhil's selling on the way up potential budgets (the first chart using 10 BTC and the second one using 5 BTC)?  I am kind of taking your side of the argument regarding some potential value on selling on the way up, yet at the same time, trying to beat you up a wee bit too, just for funzies.   

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Oh no, USD is waaay more popular among criminals. Its a currency for the corrupt and secretive and it is way easier to launder with.

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