Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1442. (Read 26720873 times)

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You merely adopted the uppity. I was born in it, molded by it....



Yes, I'm ready 

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I beg your pardon. I wanted to look smart, but I have failed.

Seconded.
We survived FTX, so Gox should be not much of an issue, in down terms.
Also, only idiots who get paid out in Bitcoin would sell, i guess there were far less of them in the old times...

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JJG we did

50         +  0.05 =   50.05
25         +  0.05 =   25.05       this looks like a real true ½ ing to me
12.5      +  0.10 =   12.60          "     "   "       "     "
6.25      +  0.70 =     6.95         "        "

3.125     + 0.70 =    3.825        this looks almost like  a ½ ing

1.5625   + 0.70 =    2.2625         this is not what any ½ ing has ever looked like      4 years and 4 months from now
0.78125 + 0.70 =    1.48125       this is certainly far different than anything we have seen in terms of ½ ing

So my point is do we see unexpected changes in 2024 a different cycle pattern

We will certainly see them in 2028 as the ½ ing will not really be one

2028 is not that far from today do other see this and plan to exit sooner than you predict? Or for that matter does this act to drive price up more than expected.

the 2024 to 2028 time slot is truly "different" than any prior as there will not be a supply drop of great significance.

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August 2015 was my first transaction. Paid $120, got 0.5 BTC, left it in my phone, forgot about it. 3 months later it had become $200. I remember the market cap then was single-digit billions, maybe $5B (currently $800B -- 160x). I remember I was checking CoinMarketCap. Not even registered to BitcoinTalk. All purchases done via Bitcoin ATMs. No exchanges.

Great times...

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ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
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It is time to get beyond MtGox for good, it gets a little old and annoying after 10+ years. So please forgive our sins holding coins on a playing cards exchange, and let's get it out of the way for a clean run to new ATH's.

I guess Heaven BTC helps those who help themselves

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Doesn't sound like the same JJG that I know.

Sure any of us sometimes might make arguments that might seem self-contradictory or even arguing from various stances, but if you might think about my posts have never really wavered very much from assertions that BTC price dynamics have a lot to do with 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (referring to those espoused by Trace Mayer).

So sure, there might be times when I might take some counter-positions, but frequently I had gone back to those same points, and I have not really stopped saying those kinds of things even if there might be some problems with the various squigglies that Plan B wrote out, but  I am not against the idea, even if the exact numbers might not be correct. 

I don't tend to be a big fan of supercycle or nonsense about bitcoin's price following hashrate, but that does not necessarily mean that I am consistent in terms of all of my posts or that some of my other ideas might seem to contradict from time to time..

I also don't tend to take for granted short-term price moves, and even that anything is close to guaranteed, so if someone is even arguing something that I agree with but describing it as a certainty rather than a probability set, then that could also cause me to take the opposite position... or at least seem to take the opposite position, because I frequently will fight back with assertions that I perceive to be too rigid, even if I might agree that whatever had been asserted to be the most likely scenario.. because even most-likely scenarios rarely have confidence levels that would even be higher than 60% or so, unless maybe some kind of a real short term set up.. but even then, I tend to be a wiffle-waffler when it comes to many aspects of BTC price matters, even though it is an ongoing topic in these here parts..


You come up with some doosies, sometimes... and yeah there are going to be changes in the ratios in which miners are more dependent upon fees rather than subsidies.. so yeah, each halvening we will see the extent to which the BTC price goes up which would be at least doubled ever four years for the halvening to have the same effect on the reward... so surely, it is difficult to predict that many legs in advance without necessarily knowing price, and if BTC price doubles every 4 years, then perhaps that is enough to have the subsidies to have the same effect, but we know adoption is going up too.. so usage and fees are likely to go up, as you project... so in the end ?  what is the punchline? 

Are you suggesting that something is supposed to be anticipated from this?  I am anticipating the BTC price to continue to go up.. and likely the halvening will continue to have effects for the next 10-20 years.. and sure maybe more, but can't we just adjust our theories as we go instead of trying to overly concretize whatever we believe is going to happen 20 years or more?  Does it matter very much?  We have some tentative ideas about what is going to happen, so what good does it do to attempt to get even more specific in regards to our wannabe sorcery in regards to the future?


There is no need to get too caught upon the particular amount that I used in the example


Exactly, $100 a week is not a big deal in many parts of the western world, but people still don't regularly save into anything, and it is a stretch if they might save in a kind of 401k plan or perhaps save up for a house, yet many times, people in the west (including all people) would likely put themselves in a much better place by creating some kind of a modest bitcoin investment strategy, even if the amount that they invest might not be up to western standards, and perhaps they are struggling to put $10 to $50 per week into bitcoin, so whatever, the amounts do not matter as much as figuring out if you are even able to invest in the first place (which means that you are able to generate cashflows that exceed your expenses while maintaining some kind of an emergency fund that might be 3-6 months in advance, too).


I don't know about whether the mere fact that the BTC price ended up correcting rather than getting above $45k would rise to the level of meaning that there was a lot of resistance at $45k rather than just difficulties that sometimes might exist for buyers to keep up when the BTC price keeps going up, then the buy demand has to be able to keep up with such upward movement of the price, so sure then we end up getting some kind of a BTC price correction.. which is barely into the 10% territory so far.. as OGNasty already mentioned.

But yeah, it still could be that we end up bouncing in a range that is from $35k to $55k for a while, and maybe we could try to hone in upon whether our new "don't wake me up zone" might end up fitting into these kinds of parameters, even though having $20k as the range does seem to be quite large - but part of the idea of "don't wake me up zone does become a kind of area in which the price movements within that area may well not be really BIG significances, but if we start to get to the edge of the zone (in either price direction), then it starts to get interesting about whether a break out might occur in one direction or the other.. and sure, if we move within the don't wake me up zone a lot, then that might also trigger a waking up even though maybe in the whole scheme of things it could be questionable whether waking up is justified as long as we are within the newly create don't wake me up zone.. if it might become reasonable to conceptualize such a zone and maybe tweak its boundaries a bit in order to attempt to take into account our current contextual realities.


What you are saying doesn't seem totally unreasonable, and so if $40k consitutes right around a 10% correction, then $35k would be a bit over a 22% correction, and $30k would constitute about a 33% correction.  So none of them seem totally unreasonable... Whether they are going to happen or not, might be another story.. I am not going to count on either of them happening, but I am also not going to be surprised if such things were to end up happening, either.. either down to $35k or even down to $30k.. they are just not givens.. but things that reasonably could end up happening.

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Let us prey.... upon those who fail to hodl.

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Why would we give any shits about Ethereum in these here parts?


And then "crypto?"  Why do you want to talk about that?  to the extent that "crypto" means anything that might be related to topics of his thread?


That's what I usually say.. 50/50. or maybe sometimes there will be more nuance when we add sideways into the equation.. but still the end result may well be something close to a coin toss with a slight advantage to one side or another depending on things happening at the time of the observation.


Let us pray.



Those of us who are so inclined.


Maybe it will happen, and maybe it won't?  - whether "appropriate" or not.. that's another story.



Yes...

Which way creates the most pain?  Perhaps UPpity is more painful than downity.. especially for those who had been underinvesting, fence sitting or otherwise failing/refusing to adequately prepare their lil selfies for UP.