It is kind of funny how so many bitcoiners worship that dweeb as some kind of a god (and even frequently reinterpret benevolent or well-intentioned or even 5-D chess meanings into his statements), but on the regular he either says a lot of pretty dumb shit or he is so obviously over-the-top when it comes to his narcissism.
Still, after watching Trump's talk at the Bitcoin Conference 2024, even if only a fraction of what he promised would come to pass I think it would be great for Bitcoin, and as a foreigner and holder that means more to me than other issues. Worst case, all of the promises he made are neglected or outvoted, even the fact that he just showed up at the Bitcoin Conference meant something.
--- EDIT: Not related to Trump below. ---
Overall, as inflation increases (with the threat of hyperinflation looming) in current fractional reserve banking system, considering the volume of debt and interest involved for many countries, holding Bitcoin might be the only solution for governments to slow down inflation where BTC has the potential to outperform the interest from debt. I don't know exactly how that Bitcoin financial construct would look like in the end, but either way it's the most bullish proposition I can think of at the moment, guaranteed CCMF to the moon! Think "Fort Knox" with Bitcoin.
To inflation has a very simple cause. Human demand keeps growing and all the worlds assets don’t grow.
IE. I was 7 in 1964 there were 2.5 billion people. an equal devision of peopl to earth 🌎 gave each person
1 acre of fresh water 12 acres of land and 36 acres of ocean.
in 2024 there are 8.1 billion people giving under ⅓ acres of fresh water under 4 acres of land and under 12 acres of ocean.
this is the driving force of inflation demand grows like mad and resources are constant.
yeah tech (bitcoin ,computers ) can help use the fixed resources better. but they are not making more earth
That doesn't make sense to me.
If demand grows and supplies are constant we should only have deflation, such as the price for a BTC going up massively.
THUS in theory that deflation should be making any currency more valuable.
So if your parents bought a house for $10,000. Now it should be $1,000 right?
IF there were no other forces in play.
Inflation (= money printing) seems to exist exactly to try to ebb all of that
(and it's probably a scam in many ways - but let's not dwell on that now).
However in many cases that does not work and the balance seems to be impossible to get right.
Either governments inflate too much or too little.
And even if the balance appears to be right (the magical 2% inflation rate you always hear) in many areas other financial, societal and physical instruments
have been invented to make prices go even more crazy for some sectors:
- Red tape with regards to what you could do yesterday but not tomorrow => Now you need a $50,000 dollar EV as an ICE car is not allowed here
- Women can now all work and earn near the same as men so couples can both pay for a mortgage -> Massive increase in house prices
- Cheap debt, you can now get a mortgage 7 times the value of your salary where it used to be 3.
- More access to credit cards and short term loans.
- Mass immigration into certain areas due to the world becoming better connected and everyone seeing the grass is probably greener over there
- Wealthy companies have gained more access to instruments to keep their growth ballooning (have your Iphones made in China), massively
increasing the difference between super rich and the average Chinese Iphone assembly worker. - Petro Dollar has made US very rich per capita but it has had negative effects elsewhere, but the strength of this seems to be reducing
- Much of the technology invented over the last 100 years have meant many changes that have led to inflation:
ease of access of travelling and thus moving between distant countries etc.
That's my take on it any way.
Sure, I agree with some of your assertions that much demand makes prices go boom but I just think there is more to it than just that
(hence my long winded explanation).
We are seeing much of the first world now not actually having enough children to sustain GDP growth (see Japan especially),
so immigration and inflation seem to have been encouraged to try to fix that.
But these are certainly causing other problems that no one thought about much I think.
Personally I reckon there are probably more than enough resources to sustain 15-20 billion people on the planet.
But them all wanting (and allowing them) to live in the same areas is just foolish.
if there are 25 people and they want a house the demand is lower than 81 people that want a house.
since realestate is kind of finite the supply simply can not grow as fast as the demand.
and the goverment prints more money as a badaid to hide the wound caused by faster demand growth than supply growth.
but you say build taller buildings and fit more people in them. yeah that is one way tech can help.
but consider the issue beyond real estate go with biomass of the earth.
it is fixed.
so if humans are 0.001 part of the biomass and the nonhuman part is 0.999
the demand we place on the biomass supply is not much.
if we grow to 0.01 part and the rest is 0.99 the demand is 10x
we now push really fucking hard on the biomass of the world.
Just think of the weight of the food you eat in a year. I eat at least a pound of different foods in a day and I drink at lease .5 gallons of liquids. which weighs 3.5 pounds So I take in 4.5 pounds a day around 1642 pounds a year . I weigh 195 or 8.42 food and drink to 1
this is likely more than the average person.
so make it 5 to 1
the worlds needs to do 5 x 8.1 billion =40.5 billion pounds for food and drink
vs 5 x 2.5 billion = 12.5 billion pounds for food and drink.
this is biomass demand and it is growing every fucking year for a real long time.
This is the reason inflation exists. Printing money simply hides this as you and the two or three that merited you seem to think that inflation is a monetary term. The reality is inflation is the reflection of the human demand curve on the planets biomass. But either way you want to define things inflation will never leave us until you figure out how to alter the humans demand growth on the worlds biomass.
