once the dust settles or as it does, the mining is going to ramp up and the economics and game theory is going to change gears. They will try to outpace the old chain.
It's a near 51% attack, plus an equivalent attack using exchanges, plus an equivalent using whales that have enough of the market cornered.
So the coalition is making a conjecture they have enough power to overcome Satoshi's hidden conjecture that the system can't be usurped.
They have a gang of nefarious hackers that have been stealing coins and laundering them through nefarious exchanges that have deals with the new coin minters (ie the nefarious miners).
They have launched their campaign to over through the network and free millions up millions of stolen coins.
Meanwhile the candle is burning at both ends because arrests have already started and negotiations and prisoner's dilemmas have commenced.