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if we strip away speculation and conspiracy theories(thanks todd!)... here are the facts.
segwit2x is meant to active segwit AND provide a 2mb hf later.
miner DID NOT need to to signal support for segwit2x to get segwit activated.
There seems to have been a kind of combination of these factors that brought segwit over the threshold, including BIP91, but since segwit2x is a compound question, there is ambiguity about what it causes - yet the combination of the various supports, including segwit2x seems to have provided a catalyst that would not have occurred otherwise (except for through BIP 148 - which also seems to have contributed to such combination of motivating factors). Accordingly, I think that is factually inaccurate to imply that segwit would have been so easily locked in without the segwit2x support folded therein through BIP91 and largely segwit2x support got folded into BIP91.
the recent activation of segwit, and the signaling for segwit2x were two completely independent things.
I think that you are lacking factual and logical integrity to make such claims of non-connectedness.
>90% of miners signaled for segwit2x last week, ~87% are signaling for segwit2x currently.
Probably you are going to continue to see this "signaling of intention" to continue to drop, and if it remains on the websites (such as coin.dance), then it will likely shrink a lot more after segwit is actually active in the end of August - I don't see what purpose it serves because there is no triggering mechanism through that "intention" signaling.. Maybe in the future there will be a need to remove the segwit portion from such intention signaling and then see what level of support remains if there were only the 2mb hardfork in the signaling of intention?
now for my speculations:
I believe the signaling for segwit2x is mostly (90%) genuine,
We hardly even know what the fuck it means... so it is genuine about what, exactly?
miner are willing to do this compromise.
Again what are they doing? Is there software for them to run, yet?
and athlo core was quick to go back on Their agreement in the HKA the miners from NYA will not backstab the agreement so lightly,
Without getting into characterizations of core as if it were some kind of centralized entity, I would not speculate that the outcome in the NYA is going to come out much different. There are likely to be a lot of defections because once segwit activates, there is likely little to no reason to continue to support segwit2x.. because the 2x hardfork portion is going to continue to be without factual or logical justification - beyond some amorphous claim that "you already agreed" and the "you already agreed" part remains quite ambiguous regarding about which aspects they had supposedly agreed.
because they have much more to gain by sticking to the plan then they do by breaking there agreement.
unlikely... they probably have more incentive to just support the status quo.. which is going to become segwit1x
BCC is the credible threat that will keep miners and nodes willing to compromise and actually do activate the 2mb hf part of segwit2x
should miners and the "community" fail to deliver the 2mb hf, BCC will gain more traction from miners and users alike
I question what is credible about the BCC threat..
Currently, it seems incredible and may become more incredible with the additional passage of time and after the activation of segwit.
By the way, I have no doubt that BCC will be threatened and be a whining point, but beyond that, who knows? maybe it could become some random and failing alt?
Core will do everything in there power to stop the 2mb hf, if they succeed... well lets just hope they fail...
You seem to be calculating the threat of a 2mb hardfork to be greater than it is... I doubt that core will have to do much of anything because they will continue to be within the status quo.. so when in doubt the status quo will continue to be the presumed system unless there is overwhelming facts and logic to the contrary (which I doubt will build anytime soon).
[quote author=Killerpotleaf link=topic=178336.msg20363165#msg20363165 date=1500955960
now having said all that, i am convinced BCC will be a "thing" regardless, even if the 2mb hf dose go threw and the community is "untied once again", things will quickly go to shit again and BCC will be back on the menu.
[/quote]
You are probably right that BCC will remain a thing of whining - whether any trigger is pulled might be another story.. and depends upon whether the BCC supporters can get further support beyond the fringes.
