31st might be good timing so just luck of the draw, sometimes tied hands is more fortunate then trying to judge situations like this
August 1st it is safest to have your bitcoins off of the exchange in a wallet.
Some people may have figured out that it's also "safe" to have your money on the exchange in dollars.
I think August 1st will be anticlimactic.
Yea thats what I figured. If you want to judge an open market then just imagine what is the most simple action to perform or most straight forward course. That is to just sell up especially price looks negative and it becomes self fulfilling. People dont resist these moves, it might be smart to buy into a selling atmosphere but its a small minority who react in that way and it requires a long term view, short term its all red. The crowd are by definition more lemming like just moving as a mass.
Still got lots of people who dont have a proper account besides various sites they utilise, be that betting or buying or whatever. BTC is there for using, ideally thats how I view the price background just people incidentally supporting price by holding btc overnight. Put enough apprehension out there and people will just retract altogether not stop their game and do something boring like organise it into a wallet for some theoretical issue to resolve. Of course theres lots of full users, but I think many in a BTC holding now are not enthusiasts just users who looking for ease of use not complication, uncertainty, bickering, politics etc. Obviously dollar is the first source for such things and most convenient.
Looking for an especially negative target, more of a ledge on a cliff. 1600 on kraken is an old loose trend that can come into play. The decline was slower in previous sells if we confirm below $2100 on a daily candle say
