Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 17. (Read 26407074 times)

https://x.com/bitcoinlfgo/status/1804186415435247627?s=46

Explanation
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That's not how @JJG dca's, I hope, and this approach does not make much sense.

Why? Because you base it on price and not time intervals.
You don't know what is the % move you are dca-ing into, so why these 0.4 thou intervals (which correspond to about 0.6% move)?

If you want dca, I would recommend doing it on a time basis OR in bigger chunks, like Michael Saylor is doing it (proportionally to your stash, of course).
People look at his numbers in awe, like, wow, $700 mil, but it is also "just" about 5% of MSTR "stash", so he is dca-ing by raising money, periodically, but only a few times a year, now.

So, looking at your stash and periodically buying 5% more (if it is possible) seems like a better proposition to me OR doing it strictly on the time basis: once a wk, once a mo, once a quarter.

Explanation
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Agreed, some part of me tho thinks this doom and gloom is actually mostly aimed at the gox holders. Aside from the short-term holders, they are probably the most emotional group right now.

Probably those who either continue to buy through the summer (or perhaps merely HODL) are going to be better off than those taking other actions, such as selling.. and yeah, time will tell.  Surely, selling at higher prices and buying back lower can be a profitable approach, but you have to end up getting the price direction correct...and I am not really convinced.. though surely I can buy back at least another $10k or $20k or $30k drop - though of course, non-of-us longer term holders (who are largely accumulators rather than traders or sellers) are wanting the BTC price to drop rather than to go up.. yet we don't even know if the BTC price is going to drop any more from our current low of $63,356 from a few hours ago....

My buys in the $63ks had not triggered, yet.. so then the next ones after that would be in the $61ks.. ..

We've been in these kinds of places previously, and one by one the buy orders might get trigger, but then at some point the buy orders are no longer are touched... so I am not really going to say that I know.. and I still likely consider that we are in price range ($55k to $82k) that has a slightly upward bias to it.. so if we are feeling pessimistic, maybe instead of being 55/45 convinced of up we might lower our sentiments and only feel 51.5% to 48.5% in favor of UP.. even if the price has largely been moving down in the past 2 weeks.


Even if Paashaas might say some price that seems more realistic, like lower $50ks or somewhere into the $40ks - he is not going to be satisfied with the level of his unrealisms.. He was waiting to go back to the sub-$27ks in late 2023... so he has been waiting, hoping and praying for quite a bit.. and to even move his prayers around quite a bit.. so yeah?  When will he? or will he be satisfied?


I think that I recommend a bit differently... and surely DCA is different from buying on dips.. even though buying on dips can supplement DCA.. so it seems that I suggest mostly ONLY DCAing for beginners up to the time they get to a point of over accumulation.. meaning to focus on a kind of strict DCA'ing. yet I recall that in my first year or so of BTC accumulation, I spent a decent amount of time trying to strategize my weekly buys so that I would be able to buy dips within the week. but at the same time, if the BTC buy had not executed by a certain point of the week, I would just buy with the remaining of that weekly allowance at whatever the BTC price happened to have had been at the time.

Sure BTC buy orders might work to both supplement DCA and to front load the BTC investment, yet in recent times, I have been a bit more reserved when it comes to selling any BTC prior to reaching a status of overaccumulation.... so that determination can be difficult to figure out.. when is it that a guy reaches a point of overaccumulation in which he can stop or modify the way that he does DCA?  I probably cannot even really tell you myself without having some additional facts in regards to the goals that a guy might have and also then figuring out how many BTC he might need in order to have an approximation of being in a state of overaccumulation.

I think the market makers are expecting people to dump their mtgox coins in the coming months and are trying to profit from a downturn by using this coming downward pressure to help push the price down. I think they’ll probably be successful in the short term, but at some point they’ll cover their shorts and send the price to the moon. If you aren’t in need of cash in the next 6 months, it really isn’t something to stress too much over.

It feels like the market makers are preying on the emotions of the impatient.

I could be wrong but it just feels like we are in an accumalation/sideways movement before something comes along to change the price direction. I also think that all the bearish scenarios(gox coins, etf early buyer exits, etc) have been priced into the range we are stuck in 57-72k.

Im trying really hard not to get caught up in sentiment out there, but it seems like the more doom and gloom thats regurgitated over media the more likely its a bit orchestrated by the market makers to be honest.

Whats helping keep an even keel is if i take the bottom of the range 57k and compare it to the current 200WMA(~$36k), we are up LOTS and that should be cause for celebration. I mean we can celebrate that every day until something changes!

Explanation
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I guess he felt he wasn’t obvious enough yesterday so today he posted a picture of the Cookie Monster eating bitcoins. It seems like he may be dropping clear and obvious hints and not making an official announcement because maybe his company is still stacking? Anyway, buying is nice, but making an official announcement to kick off game theory would be nicer.

stamp shows me 61.2k, but whatevs

Explanation
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If they're buying Euros.

I currently see the 21 WEMA at 63K$... Let's see if it's hold

Explanation
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Why wait to buy? I set buy stairs/ladders

My 64 set at 64.1 64.5 64.9 is done

So I have 63.9 63.5 63.1    and if it  goes I will set a

 62.9 62.5 62.1

rinse and repeat down to ? when ever.

be strong and dca like JJG

Explanation
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I've set some buy orders at 57.5k. Might be a wick below that but that's about it I reckon. Next move up from that point will then be the one to break through the top of this range, Oct/Nov this year. After that we should be up and away for another 6 months.

Explanation
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well i mean this is what we signed up for

just another lazy day