Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 20. (Read 26718197 times)

I'm quite surprised to see that there are so many people here worried about the recent rise in price. Of course, there has been an increase of 50% in just a few months, but to be honest, I think the rate at which Bitcoins are increasing in price is still quite slow. It will go much faster in the nearby future. This may not happen for another few months or even years, but if Bitcoin survives, which I believe it will, there will be a price explosion of epic proportions.
 
Think of it: the total Bitcoin market is somewhere north of 200 million USD, divided over almost 11 million BTC. From the Ron/Shamir paper we know that around 7 million BTC never move. That means that the total amount of fiat invested in Bitcoin is well below 100 million USD. In every possible scenario where Bitcoins are known to the general public, the total amount of money invested will be in the billions. The online gambling market had a turnover of 21 billion in 2008, according to Wikipedia. The online shopping market is at least tenfold that number, as is the amount of money people wire through Western Union and the like. And think of the money which could flow in the system once the drug cartels, hedge funds and tax evaders find out about it.

Although Bitcoin is still very young, it has survived to the point where there is enough wealth in the system that people will go to great lengths in order to repair or save it, once it will be struck by some disaster. This could either be an internal threat, such as scalability issues, or an external threat such as legal issues. In any case, Bitcoin will survive, simply because it has proven itself to work. Alternative currencies are irrelevant at this point, because any enhancement they might offer can and will be implemented by Bitcoin if there is even the slightest threat to it. The network effect will make sure Bitcoin won't allow contenders on the block. Whether you like it or not, Pandora's box has been opened and not even Satoshi himself will be able to close it.
 
When we look at Bitcoin in terms of expected value, the odds are thus astronomical. The only reason Bitcoins don't trade for 100k USD right now is because most people either haven't found out about it or don't understand it yet. When they do, there will be a rush from people afraid of missing the boat. Remember that never before in the history of mankind a new currency came on the market so suddenly and right there for everyone to pick up for a bargain. Once the banks and governments of this world find this out, there will be a race to get in on it as fast as possible. This will be the tipping point, where we can expect to see an exponential increase in value. As long as this point has not been reached, it is incredibly silly to worry over a few dollars in a few weeks.

I'm quite surprised to see that there are so many people here worried about the recent rise in price. Of course, there has been an increase of 50% in just a few months, but to be honest, I think the rate at which Bitcoins are increasing in price is still quite slow. It will go much faster in the nearby future. This may not happen for another few months or even years, but if Bitcoin survives, which I believe it will, there will be a price explosion of epic proportions.
 
Think of it: the total Bitcoin market is somewhere north of 200 million USD, divided over almost 11 million BTC. From the Ron/Shamir paper we know that around 7 million BTC never move. That means that the total amount of fiat invested in Bitcoin is well below 100 million USD. In every possible scenario where Bitcoins are known to the general public, the total amount of money invested will be in the billions. The online gambling market had a turnover of 21 billion in 2008, according to Wikipedia. The online shopping market is at least tenfold that number, as is the amount of money people wire through Western Union and the like. And think of the money which could flow in the system once the drug cartels, hedge funds and tax evaders find out about it.

Although Bitcoin is still very young, it has survived to the point where there is enough wealth in the system that people will go to great lengths in order to repair or save it, once it will be struck by some disaster. This could either be an internal threat, such as scalability issues, or an external threat such as legal issues. In any case, Bitcoin will survive, simply because it has proven itself to work. Alternative currencies are irrelevant at this point, because any enhancement they might offer can and will be implemented by Bitcoin if there is even the slightest threat to it. The network effect will make sure Bitcoin won't allow contenders on the block. Whether you like it or not, Pandora's box has been opened and not even Satoshi himself will be able to close it.
 
When we look at Bitcoin in terms of expected value, the odds are thus astronomical. The only reason Bitcoins don't trade for 100k USD right now is because most people either haven't found out about it or don't understand it yet. When they do, there will be a rush from people afraid of missing the boat. Remember that never before in the history of mankind a new currency came on the market so suddenly and right there for everyone to pick up for a bargain. Once the banks and governments of this world find this out, there will be a race to get in on it as fast as possible. This will be the tipping point, where we can expect to see an exponential increase in value. As long as this point has not been reached, it is incredibly silly to worry over a few dollars in a few weeks.