Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 17029. (Read 26587810 times)

I'm dumbfounded. So much more than before. Totally dumbfounded.

YUp, I got hit by that fee a couple days ago. Today I received an email stating that they are reducing it again.

If ETH doesn't start to dump into BTC in the next minutes for a new ATH I will feel very confussed.

I guess people are avoiding Kraken since they started to charge 0.0025 BTC for withdraws

Stamp is developing a big spread. It only takes 200 Bitcoins to either push it up to $2900 or down to $2800. OKCoin has a similar spread, it only takes 300 Bitcoins to either push it up to 21000 CNY or down below 20000 CNY.

OKCoin on ATH clearly above $3000.

Bitstamp on its way.

Kraken struggling due to lack of FIAT. The margin pool is empty.

I am having a hard time doing that. Any time I pick up a coin or ICO and do some research about it all that I found out is rubbish behind it. Yet they still keep rising. It looks like a fucking gamble to me.

Yes, I think you are right. It will take some time until the bubble pops. Plus I guess most people don't really care what they are "investing" as long as it keeps rising. The rise will have a limit, but maybe its nowhere near yet.

I just hope that when that happens there is still a store of value that is not heavily affected by that crash. And I hope that is Bitcoin. BUt who knows anything....

fees are 0,0006 BTC or 0,00016 BTC ... so 1,8 USD.
not 15 USD.

transaction emitted by a "up-to-date" wallet ... a SPV one, with regular update on the policies fees calculation.

bitcoin is a network.
you must have a strong wallet to emit with low fees ... and normal time confirmation.

Some ICOs seem to make sense. I can't tell you which ones, but from the 700 out there, at least 7 of them (about 1%) have "something", whatever that is, and not just for pure speculation.

As for me, I'm trying to trade my way up.

I think you are right on with your thinking, you own both for different reasons.

At this time, I would hardly call it a failed retest.. to be bouncing within 5% of the top. 

You gotta zoom out a bit, have a little patience, and see the price pressure situation, as it is, rather than what you wished it would be.

And yeah, sure, for several days, we could kind of float in the price arena that is immediately preceding the ATH - even 5% or a bit more and not break above such ATH, but that does not conclude that we have actually retested such ATH.

not yet crashing, but it seems to me that today is turning point.
even ETHernal pump is close to the top here.

of course i can be wrong, this is just my gut feeling  (+ i thought eth top was 100 dollars lower)

Is Bitcoin crashing

Last time I checked price was above $2800, maybe I missed a mini rally in the hours I was offline

looks like some shitcoins are starting to fall, this may turn into major one. lets see

still time to dump at that inflated price

This is entirely true but a collapse does not happen over night, and for just one company can take years, in ETH case you have 50 startups all with their own dreams of world domination.

Also, The difference between a ponzi scheme and a legit business model is not as bright and clear of a line as everyone would like to believe. A company can survive for a decade on selling just its vision. Even longer if you have a strong enough visionary model. Just look at Amazon, Uber, and even Facebook the first few years. All of them initially huge money losers but their vision of the future was so strong that investment dollars came in for a decade. That is happening now to crypto companies.

I have always contended that these ICO assets are simply a modern security. I actually think much, much better at passing the good fortune of a company's success on to early investors than a stupid Stock. If the economy of the company is driven by the asset, then anyone that owns the asset will reap a reward as that company's economy grows. It is the future of securities in my opinion and makes owning stock feel stupid in comparison.

That said the part you are missing is that 1) it takes years for phony business models to crash, we are in year 1 of ICO insanity, this could go on for five more years and that is if they ALL failed 2) not all of these will fail, some will succeed dramatically, validating the model and supporting the platform (ETH), 3) the only real risk to ETHs platform is regulation, however, that only slows the model and doesn't destroy it in my opinion.

So crashes will happen, but unless a flaw in ETH exposes an across-the-board ownership weakness this train is not stopping and each crashed coin will be replaced by 10 new startups.

omg it looks like failed retest of ATH and now dump

Strange things, Kraken going so low compared to the other exchanges. Spread was big now and then.

I think we need to do a little pause here and evaluate what is hapenning here with the altcoins market.

It seems that one of the reasons behind the crazy surge of ethereum have been the ICO's. Please someone correct me if I am wrong, but this is my view of it:

- There have been lots of ICO's based on ethereum, so that means people need to buy ethereum to join the ico's. That, obviously, pumps the price.

- Previous ICO's have been such sucessfull (not in developing anything of real usage, but in price surge, speculation) that everybody wants to be part of ANY ICO to replicate those incredible price increases.

- Most ICO funders have almost no special knowledge in the area of expertise needed for the future project that are suppossed to develop. Ie: Look at the board members of Primalbase.

- I have tried to analise some of the ICO's in offer (or past ones) trying to find some fundamentals and all I find is vapoware.

- Also, I find nowhere in the terms any protection for the "investor". Unlike when you invest on a business and you have some specific legal rights, in these ICO's it's all nonsense wording. In most cases, nothing stops them for not developing, for just spend the money on their salaries or even for developing a profitable business and those gains not be directly related to tokens pricing nor dividends. They are totally separate things no matter what they "promise".

- There's no point in using the ICO funds on developing any business while the best business atm would be just to hold the coins and sell them afterwards.

- So noone is selling in order to develop the business... maybe just a little part to pay for the funders salary.

- When the pump stops, they will need to finally spend some of the ICO funds to finally develop the intended business.

- When that happens, and many of the ICO's sell, the price will drop as a stone. All the gains vanished.


The case of Primalbase makes for a good example of all this. It's basically a "real state" investment. Usually those have an expected annual return of around 10% when in the hands of real experts. They basically plan to start with the office they themselves are using/are renting/own. What does this tell me?

a) In case they own the office, they will probably buy it from themselves using the ICO money. Do you think they will negotiate hard to get a great price for their investors?

b) In case they are renting it.... don't you think they will use their own tokens to pay for the renting and basically not having to pay for it anymore (basically the ICO funds will pay for it).

c) Why nowhere in the whitepaper are ANY of the data that would be requiered to do due diligence before investing in any business?

d) Do people know that MANY "real life" investments simply fail? Are investors really aware of that? I don't see the usual investment disclaimers and if they are there, they are not front page, but negligently hidden. Do they know they are in a EXTREMELY HIGH risk investment for a theoretical expected return (in best case) of a mere 10%?

I could go on... but the conclusion is that some time in the future those ICO's will need to develop or die, and most probably will die. I can't see any reason why that castle won't start crumbling, I just don't know when will that happen. And I hope that when that happens it will be positive for Bitcoin and not carry it with ethereums doom.

Please someone correct me if I am wrong in my view of current scenario.

I can only see Bitcoin going down if trust is broken somehow with the coming potential fork. Yes there will be corrections, but bitcoin is I believe a permanent diversification asset in the minds of the entire planet. That won't go away just because of a competitor. In fact, I would argue that Ethereum is NOT competing for the same dollars entirely that goes into Bitcoin.