Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 18164. (Read 26610996 times)

Election set-up feels a lot like Brexit, with weeks of indecision and the confidence of establishment-supporting morons holding the line, then a stock rally (risk off trade) up into the polling day erasing large losses accrued over uncertainty ... might even be a further rally on the day of election and then the massive dumps begin when poll surprise numbers start rolling in.

 
Good luck with that.   

I tend to value my investments on their long term potential which makes me sometimes forget about right now. Or be irrelevant.
But please keep that thought, and I will happily buy them (of you).

Tbh i arrived at the point where i wish trump would win.

The US kinda deserves the clownfiesta.

I will be trading this:

Current bitcoin market buy walls have increased

this reflect a knowing of impending increase in btc price

Current Market influence is currently attributed to
the population understanding the media like abc, nbc, cnn propaganda machine and it reflects in aus and britain (brexit), as well governments not protecting them (previous court cases globally, FBI and DOJ interference)

This can also be reflected in the knowledge of the money making machine of the top three PRIVATELY owned banks.

Federal Reserve USA

Reserve Bank of Australia

Bank of England


When seen the the link between these three and the propped up stocks and markets will crumble

If the population fails to see this, who knows what will occur


my theory is a false flag attack to detract from the market crash needed to be unleashed by these banks due to low interest rates, derivatives and bond market highs

Well, it is quite possible that he may feel that he has to do something material and substantial in order to keep his brand and to appear to be a person of his word.  But Trump says all kinds of bullshit and mischaracterizes himself in all kinds of ways that are inconsistent with actual facts of what actually happened and what is actually provable.  There are likely hundreds of examples in which he makes a kind of stupid ass statement and then fairly soon thereafter he either asserts that he did not say or that he meant x rather than y.

He also tries to be a bit unpredictable too, so I really consider it to be a kind of waste of time to attempt to predict what he is going to do, even though I have various ideas in my head that it is likely that he is going to continue to attempt to garner attention by whatever it is that he does in order to attempt to maintain hopeful relevance with his brand.


Yes.  Fair enough.

In late 2013, I had a certain amount of money that I could invest, and in September/October 2013, I invested part of that money in traditional stocks, and I had not really thought about bitcoin but I had it bookmarked in my browser to look into it, and in about mid-November 2013, I pretty much learned about bitcoin by looking into the bookmarked resources that I had set aside.  Accordingly, at that point, I decided to take a stake and I had some preliminary and initial ideas based on having little information, and I had also planned to research further into the matter while I dollar cost average invested over the next 6 months (and like I said, my overall initial idea was to invest no more than 10% of my quasi-liquid investment capital into bitcoin). 

If I make an initial and rudimentary assessment in time 1, I am not locked into that rudimentary assessment at time 2 (6 months later) or time 3 (one year later) or time 4 (three years later).  That would be ridiculous to suggest that I need to be locked into any kind of plan or any kind of way of thinking about apportioning of risk or even feeling sufficiently invested or sufficiently diversified.

Additional thinking that I had was to buy on the way down and to sell on the way up (that is more or less a concept that I attribute getting from Warren Buffet, even though I doubt that he is any kind of originator of such concept).  So, yeah, I continued to dollar cost average buy throughout 2014 and attempting to buy more as the price went down and to refrain from buying when the price went up, because during all of 2014, I considered my BTC portfolio/holdings to be largely continuing to be in an accumulation only phase.






Through the past 3 years of looking into BTC, investing in BTC and considering and reconsidering my own financial particulars, I have the right to change my ideas however I believe is reasonable for my own evolving circumstances and my own evolving thinking.

I also think that there is a bit of a different dynamic if a person invests up to 10% without appreciation in an asset or invests 30% without appreciation in an asset... Surely the appreciation of the asset should be considered, but merely having appreciation of an asset, whether that appreciation is 5% 20%, 100%, 500% or more than 1000% does not dictate what is the next action of the investor.  I think that ultimately, any consideration of a plan needs to be tailored to individual considerations and even tweaked based on various individual considerations that are not necessarily locked in and have the ability to evolve (whether gradual or steep).





Yeah, a little judgement seems to come off in your summary, but that is fine, I suppose.   Sometimes, I also write responses that may contain some judgement inferences therein (sometimes intentional and sometimes not). 

I think that part of the reason that I participate so much in this forum is to be able to consider what other folks are doing and thinking and also to bounce some of my ideas off of other folks.  I don't necessarily expect to interact without being the recipient of some judgement.. and frequently, I stick to the position that bitcoin investors need to tailor their considerations and their BTC investment strategies (or not) to their own circumstances and comfort levels.




Actually, I agree with you. Sometimes, I may share a lot about various aspects of my investment, but I also decide not to share all particulars about what I do and various intimacies of my own plans.  Nonetheless, the change in the price (especially lowering of the price), made some goals to be easier (whether that goal is expressed in fiat or expressed in BTC).  And, yeah, I have come across a lot of discussion in which some posters have a goal to accumulate and continue to hold a certain quantity of bitcoin, and the quantity may vary, such as 1BTC or 21BTC or 100BTC or some other variant.

I also kind of have a certain quantity of BTC in mind that I would like to stay above, and I have some charts that I have created that project my BTC holdings into the future and at certain price points, so there is some underlying considerations that I have regarding a desire to hold a certain quantity of bitcoin (and yeah holding a certain quantity of bitcoin could also screw up my other thinking in terms of what percentage of my net worth BTC represents and whether I need to diversify some of my networth out of BTC in order to feel more comfortable).



I agree with you that overall Bitcoin is likely a whole hell of a lot more valuable than a lot of the other traditional investment vehicles - nonetheless, I think that we remain quite a ways away from a day in which we remove all of our investment from various traditional asset classes, yet I understand that if you have little to no investment at all, you may think that you want to get started by investing in BTC only or you may diversify with some crypto currencies, and to me, maintaining 100% of quasi-liquid investment assets in various kinds of crypto (even if mostly or almost exclusively in BTC) remains considerably risky.  Sure, sometimes, younger folks (in their teens or early 20s) may consider that they have a timeline in which they can be more risky with their investment strategy, and surely there is some truth to the fact that age (and timeline) makes a difference in how risky of an approach may be prudent for one person but not prudent for another person.

Trump hasnt to start anything. The atmosphere is already heated enough in his camp through his allegations the last months/weeks. He could even officialy declare he is against any sort of violence and you could potentially see mobsters and riots in certain states.

Ehh just about $707 per BTC1

Which part of his speeches make you think that he's capable of graciously accepting defeat? It might create a temporary chaos with others trying to exploit the opportunity (i.e. Russia going all out in Syria, China grabbing more islands, Texas trying to secede from US etc...)

hahahaha... I like the way you outline the various scenarios.  Surely, this third scenario is an interesting one, but really does not seem that likely.  Surely, it seems likely that Trump could create  a little drama to the extent that he considers it helpful to his brand, but really it may seem a bit counter productive (to his Brand) to attempt to continue in any kind of persistent manner with this, if it were to play out in that third scenario direction.

Fair enough. It is nice to see real world thinking and even practical barriers that may exist in terms of buying/selling bitcoin.

You likely realize that I was razzing you based on some themes that have come up in your posts.  It seems that your approach to bitcoin remains fairly similar to other folks who generally consider themselves as bitcoin accumulators, and in that regard, you spend fiat first and generally replace bitcoin that you spend within a fairly prompt timeline.   

@JJG So you had a plan (10%), and stuck with it (buying more) when the dollar value of your investment went down.
But now when it is 30%, you don't stick with your plan by not selling down to 10% (not judging, just summarizing).

My plan was to own a certain percentage of the Bitcoin network which got easier over time because of the declining price. Now I have it, and like you can't seem to sell them for fiat or s(t)ocks I don't need. A bitcoin is just too damn precious.

Already been through this. Why not ask about general market, rather than specific asset like BTC? Yes market prices in the election, and if the outcome differs from what's priced in market adjusts. BTC is considered a hedge so more volatility in general markets is bullish for BTC price.

Market doesn't like uncertainty either. Hiller is considered to be the winner, that why market moved up once FBI said they don't have anything on their latest emails investigation.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/07/market-predictions-sp-500-to-sell-off-if-donald-trump-tops-clinton-and-more-from-wall-street.html


TL;DR
Trump wins: market goes down, BTC up
Hillary wins Trump accepts the loss: not significant effect on BTC
Hillary wins, Trump doesn't accept and starts riots on the streets. BTC up

If we have already learned about bitcoin, and we are fairly confident about it's upwards price potential and generally overall decent store of value in the longer terms, then we should not be living in a world of regret regarding our decision about how much is enough of a BTC stake.  

I do admit that I share the feeling of a lot of folks when bitcoin prices suddenly spurts up 20% or more, which is:  "oh, I should have bought a little more" or if BTC prices suddenly drop 10% or more, "oh, I should have sold a little more."

Nonetheless, if we have been into bitcoin for a year or more, we should have had enough time to sort out what is our bitcoin stake and what is our strategy in regards to bitcoin accumulation... and at what prices to sell, how much and at what prices to buy, how much.

Yeah, it is quite likely that we cannot exactly work out the details of our bitcoin strategy, because frequently, bitcoin performs in ways that are a bit beyond our expectations, but we can still (and should) have a general outline of a plan that we can live with and accept.

I will definitely concede that not everyone is going to approach bitcoin with the same proportionality or the same values or even the same level of specificity in any kind of plan that they make in regards to bitcoin.  Likely, a large number of bitcoin investing people will kind of develop general overall guidelines in respect to bitcoin, but then change their own guidelines from time to time or even on a short term emotional basis... but if we know anything, we should realize by now that bitcoin is going to continue to be volatile.

My initial plan in late 2013 was to acquire more or less 30 bitcoins in the first 6 months that I invested (by mid 2014), while studying bitcoin and considering that within about the first year (if bitcoin seemed to be a decent longer term strategy) then I would attempt to acquire about a 10% stake in bitcoin (considering my semi-liquid investment assets).  I pretty much met my goal in the first six months and then in the first year after considering and reconsidering the matter, but in late 2014, at that point, bitcoin was at the lowest price price point that it had been throughout the totality of my investment, and I had to reconsider to some extent what I was going to do and to rethink my previous thinking, which resulted in me concluding that I did not need to believe that it was urgent for me to invest more because I had already pretty much met my 10% goal, but only that I continue to dollar cost average reasonable amounts of fiat into bitcoin in the near to medium term...

Sure, in my case, we know how the scenario played out, up to this point, and we ended up being pleasantly surprised at the end of the year of 2015, because BTC prices nearly doubled for a short period in November, and then ended up rebounding again to pretty much more than triple from their early 2015 lower price points to go from mid-$400s to upper $700s in late May/early June 2016.

Anyhow, as BTC prices went up in the past year, I attempted to stick with what I considered to be a reasonable and prudent plan - even though my stake of quasi-liquid investment went from about 10% in late 2014 to about 1/3 currently based largely on bitcoin price appreciation.  So do I feel over invested or over exposed?  I personally do not, but surely everyone can consider their level of exposure in differing ways and also depending on whether they had been employing leveraging strategies, too.

My reconsideration of my BTC investment at this time is not necessarily to reapportion any of my BTC investment to my initial assessment (of 10%), because I really consider that the reapportionment that came to my current BTC holdings due to BTC price appreciation is not unstable because bitcoin seems to continue to enjoy very decent upward price potential - whether looking at the next year, next three years or the next five years.  I doubt that it is urgent for me to make any kinds of specific plans beyond five years, but I do have ballpark ideas for beyond five years, but more so, my ballpark ideas have to do with BTC performance more than any exact timing of the performance.

Part of my point here remains that if any BTC investors have already had sufficient time to take their initial stake in bitcoin, then they should also be somewhat capable of having a general plan about the extent that they are going to reapportion their BTC holdings now  (if at all and based on BTC price appreciation that has already occurred) or to have some general ideas about how much reapportioning that they are going to do based on various possible future BTC price performance scenarios, no?

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still going sideways I see... currently $709 on Bitcoinaverage.

No weekend rally nor dip. Still digesting last week's FUD rumors and awaiting whatever will happen (if anything) with tomorrow's USA "election".

They only accept Canadian dollars where I was playing, so that's what I used to buy what beer I had to buy myself. Between complimentary beers and those bought for me by members of the audience, I don't usually spend a lot on beer when I'm gigging.

As for my gifted satoshis, they're still in my phone wallet. I only spend my bitcoins when i absolutely must. The last I spent was to buy a couple hundred dollars to take to the ballpark back in June. I was able to buy them back a couple of weeks later after the price dipped.

I just asked for posters opinions in a gambling thread re: the election but you guys are a lot more knowledgable normally so I'd like to ask the following -


Do you think the price will be directly affected as a result of the election (whatever that ends up being - most likely Hillary imo)

The only luxury problem you might have is getting over exposed compared to the value of your other investments (stocks, bonds, fiat, house, etc).

I have no doubt the value of Bitcoin will get considerably higher than today (700$ / BTC). Because of being restricted in tx/s, limited infrastructure and yet unknown use cases. The only doubt I have is how long I can hold before getting the uncomfortable feeling of being over-exposed, even though I am selling something that is under-priced.

Big banks getting desperate to the keep the credit hampster wheel turning:

http://us.finance.qa1p.global.media.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-launches-marcus-for-consumers-130047624.html

Beware, they don't want you to pay down/off your personal debt. That would absolutely crush the banking industry. Their goal is to keep you in personal debt the rest of your life, so that you'll continuously need to make more and more money to pay your debts, instead of using that money to invest long term (make money with your money) and enjoying the fruits of your labor.