Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 18165. (Read 26611093 times)

Ehh just about $707 per BTC1

Which part of his speeches make you think that he's capable of graciously accepting defeat? It might create a temporary chaos with others trying to exploit the opportunity (i.e. Russia going all out in Syria, China grabbing more islands, Texas trying to secede from US etc...)

hahahaha... I like the way you outline the various scenarios.  Surely, this third scenario is an interesting one, but really does not seem that likely.  Surely, it seems likely that Trump could create  a little drama to the extent that he considers it helpful to his brand, but really it may seem a bit counter productive (to his Brand) to attempt to continue in any kind of persistent manner with this, if it were to play out in that third scenario direction.

Fair enough. It is nice to see real world thinking and even practical barriers that may exist in terms of buying/selling bitcoin.

You likely realize that I was razzing you based on some themes that have come up in your posts.  It seems that your approach to bitcoin remains fairly similar to other folks who generally consider themselves as bitcoin accumulators, and in that regard, you spend fiat first and generally replace bitcoin that you spend within a fairly prompt timeline.   

@JJG So you had a plan (10%), and stuck with it (buying more) when the dollar value of your investment went down.
But now when it is 30%, you don't stick with your plan by not selling down to 10% (not judging, just summarizing).

My plan was to own a certain percentage of the Bitcoin network which got easier over time because of the declining price. Now I have it, and like you can't seem to sell them for fiat or s(t)ocks I don't need. A bitcoin is just too damn precious.

Already been through this. Why not ask about general market, rather than specific asset like BTC? Yes market prices in the election, and if the outcome differs from what's priced in market adjusts. BTC is considered a hedge so more volatility in general markets is bullish for BTC price.

Market doesn't like uncertainty either. Hiller is considered to be the winner, that why market moved up once FBI said they don't have anything on their latest emails investigation.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/07/market-predictions-sp-500-to-sell-off-if-donald-trump-tops-clinton-and-more-from-wall-street.html


TL;DR
Trump wins: market goes down, BTC up
Hillary wins Trump accepts the loss: not significant effect on BTC
Hillary wins, Trump doesn't accept and starts riots on the streets. BTC up

If we have already learned about bitcoin, and we are fairly confident about it's upwards price potential and generally overall decent store of value in the longer terms, then we should not be living in a world of regret regarding our decision about how much is enough of a BTC stake.  

I do admit that I share the feeling of a lot of folks when bitcoin prices suddenly spurts up 20% or more, which is:  "oh, I should have bought a little more" or if BTC prices suddenly drop 10% or more, "oh, I should have sold a little more."

Nonetheless, if we have been into bitcoin for a year or more, we should have had enough time to sort out what is our bitcoin stake and what is our strategy in regards to bitcoin accumulation... and at what prices to sell, how much and at what prices to buy, how much.

Yeah, it is quite likely that we cannot exactly work out the details of our bitcoin strategy, because frequently, bitcoin performs in ways that are a bit beyond our expectations, but we can still (and should) have a general outline of a plan that we can live with and accept.

I will definitely concede that not everyone is going to approach bitcoin with the same proportionality or the same values or even the same level of specificity in any kind of plan that they make in regards to bitcoin.  Likely, a large number of bitcoin investing people will kind of develop general overall guidelines in respect to bitcoin, but then change their own guidelines from time to time or even on a short term emotional basis... but if we know anything, we should realize by now that bitcoin is going to continue to be volatile.

My initial plan in late 2013 was to acquire more or less 30 bitcoins in the first 6 months that I invested (by mid 2014), while studying bitcoin and considering that within about the first year (if bitcoin seemed to be a decent longer term strategy) then I would attempt to acquire about a 10% stake in bitcoin (considering my semi-liquid investment assets).  I pretty much met my goal in the first six months and then in the first year after considering and reconsidering the matter, but in late 2014, at that point, bitcoin was at the lowest price price point that it had been throughout the totality of my investment, and I had to reconsider to some extent what I was going to do and to rethink my previous thinking, which resulted in me concluding that I did not need to believe that it was urgent for me to invest more because I had already pretty much met my 10% goal, but only that I continue to dollar cost average reasonable amounts of fiat into bitcoin in the near to medium term...

Sure, in my case, we know how the scenario played out, up to this point, and we ended up being pleasantly surprised at the end of the year of 2015, because BTC prices nearly doubled for a short period in November, and then ended up rebounding again to pretty much more than triple from their early 2015 lower price points to go from mid-$400s to upper $700s in late May/early June 2016.

Anyhow, as BTC prices went up in the past year, I attempted to stick with what I considered to be a reasonable and prudent plan - even though my stake of quasi-liquid investment went from about 10% in late 2014 to about 1/3 currently based largely on bitcoin price appreciation.  So do I feel over invested or over exposed?  I personally do not, but surely everyone can consider their level of exposure in differing ways and also depending on whether they had been employing leveraging strategies, too.

My reconsideration of my BTC investment at this time is not necessarily to reapportion any of my BTC investment to my initial assessment (of 10%), because I really consider that the reapportionment that came to my current BTC holdings due to BTC price appreciation is not unstable because bitcoin seems to continue to enjoy very decent upward price potential - whether looking at the next year, next three years or the next five years.  I doubt that it is urgent for me to make any kinds of specific plans beyond five years, but I do have ballpark ideas for beyond five years, but more so, my ballpark ideas have to do with BTC performance more than any exact timing of the performance.

Part of my point here remains that if any BTC investors have already had sufficient time to take their initial stake in bitcoin, then they should also be somewhat capable of having a general plan about the extent that they are going to reapportion their BTC holdings now  (if at all and based on BTC price appreciation that has already occurred) or to have some general ideas about how much reapportioning that they are going to do based on various possible future BTC price performance scenarios, no?

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still going sideways I see... currently $709 on Bitcoinaverage.

No weekend rally nor dip. Still digesting last week's FUD rumors and awaiting whatever will happen (if anything) with tomorrow's USA "election".

They only accept Canadian dollars where I was playing, so that's what I used to buy what beer I had to buy myself. Between complimentary beers and those bought for me by members of the audience, I don't usually spend a lot on beer when I'm gigging.

As for my gifted satoshis, they're still in my phone wallet. I only spend my bitcoins when i absolutely must. The last I spent was to buy a couple hundred dollars to take to the ballpark back in June. I was able to buy them back a couple of weeks later after the price dipped.

I just asked for posters opinions in a gambling thread re: the election but you guys are a lot more knowledgable normally so I'd like to ask the following -


Do you think the price will be directly affected as a result of the election (whatever that ends up being - most likely Hillary imo)

The only luxury problem you might have is getting over exposed compared to the value of your other investments (stocks, bonds, fiat, house, etc).

I have no doubt the value of Bitcoin will get considerably higher than today (700$ / BTC). Because of being restricted in tx/s, limited infrastructure and yet unknown use cases. The only doubt I have is how long I can hold before getting the uncomfortable feeling of being over-exposed, even though I am selling something that is under-priced.

Big banks getting desperate to the keep the credit hampster wheel turning:

http://us.finance.qa1p.global.media.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-launches-marcus-for-consumers-130047624.html

Beware, they don't want you to pay down/off your personal debt. That would absolutely crush the banking industry. Their goal is to keep you in personal debt the rest of your life, so that you'll continuously need to make more and more money to pay your debts, instead of using that money to invest long term (make money with your money) and enjoying the fruits of your labor.

The good news right now for us bitcoiners:
I believe that since Bitcoin bottomed from the last rally, that worldwide market-maker trader interest in the Bitcoin market is still relatively low, if not negligible right now. Most of the price rise over the last year can be attributed to the halving, and I don't believe that the current price is hovering that much higher over the cost of mining.  The market is still too small compared to other markets, and being so thinly traded, major equities traders wouldn't be able to take a large position without making a major splash.

Maybe all the major traders are all secretly placing huge market buys OTC directly from miners, that we don't get to see. Or maybe miners are just stacking coins for a rainy day. Who knows.

What I do feel though, is that I'd rather have a long position in bitcoin right now than just about any other investment I can think of, because I think it's a safer bet overall.  I think even as a long term store of value, bitcoin will spank things like savings accounts, etc., especially as fiat purchasing value continues to erode over time.

Specifically in terms of bitcoin I don't know what to expect. Conventional wisdom suggests that if interest rates are higher then money will flow there from elsewhere, including bitcoin, though I find it hard to believe the impact will be that significant. Of more relevance might be the relatively weaker Yuan.

Sure, low interest rates are great for traders in any market, allowing cheap hot money (zero interest credit) to flow in and leverage up.  But this gives a very distorted reflection of true value interest/capital preservation in said markets (eg. sound long term investment vs. quick return), leading to overbought activity (bubble) in just about every market where cheap money flows.

If interest rates are suppressed, isn't that good for Bitcoin? I seem to remember a Bitcoin crash whenever interest rates were raised or spoken of being raised.

I think that's a fair assessment. US interest rates are more likely to increase too.
And Sterling will get spanked some more as a result. Ah well.

If we assume that on a Clinton win that markets would rally, stabilize, and even possibly bull run early next year, then I can interpret that as only one thing: That Wall Street believes that she is more sympathetic to Wall Street, Banks, and the Fed, and what she would likely support when the equities/commodities market crash actually happens: MORE stimulus, MORE socialized losses, MORE interest rate suppression.... and MORE GOVT and CORP DEBT.

Which is exactly what we DON'T need more of.

When I did my taxes in 2013 it was a huge mess because I was using many exchanges and doing complex arbitrage using many coins. It would have been impossible to produce an intelligible trading trail and some of the exchanges were even closed. So I just subtracted the grand total of how much I had at the end of the year minus how much I originally deposited. I said fuck it: here I made $xxx,xxx of "bitcoin profit". Take it or leave it. You should be glad I'm paying taxes in the first place.

I never got audited for the Bitcoin. Though I did get audited for using $1500 from a Health Savings Account account that I forgot to document...

I would never underestimate the will of the authorities to prolong that Wile-E-Coyote moment for as long as possible. However it does appear that monetary policy is reaching its limits, finally. Which means you either have to pull something really big/unexpected out of the bag (hear the distant sounds of helicopter rotors turning) or bite the bullet. As you say, markets don't do what you expect them to and I can't see how this will finish. My guess is it will be something almost no one saw coming, probably a complication caused by the desperate attempts to keep things going a while longer but one that remains very much in the background until it's too late.
I would want a few BTC hidden away for that day, though, and ideally very little debt.

Agree. The World markets could have all bad news already priced in, although I personally think that's not the case, as I believe the markets are being magically levitated at this point for various reasons.  We could even see a stock market rally next year, but it would just be more fakery to extend equities further into overbought territory.

Here's what I do know, markets rarely do what people expect them to do. Rallies and more bull runs happen when people are expecting the markets to fall from being overheated.  

Crashes usually come after the last bear turns bull, everyone's feeling better about things, and exuberance kicks in.

But this time is different, because if interest rates are being held down and the World markets are being levitated in wait/hope for things to turn around, they're going to be waiting for years longer.  Retailers are going to get slaughtered again this year during the holiday season, corporate profits are falling, job growth is falling, oil will crash lower (eventually), and worldwide deflation is already setting in.  So I can't see how a stock market rally next year would be seen as anything other than dubious at best. If that happens, #expectthecrashsoon