Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 18489. (Read 26608023 times)

i did go to business school but didn't study trading specifically, much. that's why i follow the chartists. we're both talking our books here. there were about a million chartists who said it would rise a bit and then doom. well, it rose a bit since then...

Hahahahahaha.....

Yeah right... you have no support for your bearish prediction.

Sure, there is still a 20 to 30% chance that you could be correct, but that does not make you insightful in any kind of way, except perhaps that you are engaging in wishful thinking.

i'm normally bullish b/c i love btc but there is something to be said of the whole "wisdom of the crowd" thing and a lot of the best chartists are gonna hit the sell button in the mid 600s, planning to ride it to low 5's

*edit: it started while i was typing that. make sure you have fiat waiting. don't short btc w/ btc

"doom porn is on" ... Good one!

Speaking of bail-outs ... look ... a 250£ billion bail-out!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/mark-carney-says-bank-of-england-ready-to-inject-250bn-into-economy-to-keep-uk-afloat-after-eu-a7100486.html


And btw... any of you observed??? ... 23.06.2016 is exactly 7 years 7 months 7 weeks and 7 days since the crash of 29.09.2008 that had a 777 drop in the Dow Jones in the first day of the crash.


*Edit: They avoid the word "bail-out" , but I guess : "injecting 250£ billion" sounds more assuring. Rofl!  
*Edit2: More exactly 7 years, 8 months and 25 days... and if you get those 31 days from the precedent month you have 31 + 25 that is 49 + 7! ( 7 weeks and 7 days) ... Madness!!!
*Edit3: The link to the footage of the 777 drop in the Dow from that day: https://youtu.be/bRFztNObeIw?t=2m33s  

There is a 737 coin bid wall on Stamp at $636.

Let's see how long that wall lasts.....?

Price is currently floating in the lower $640s.

Short term scenarios:

1) Do we go up from here ($650 and beyond) and the wall is not touched (or only partially touched)?

2) Do we go down from here (below $636) and the wall is eaten?

3) Do we go down from here (below $636) and the wall is pulled?

4) none of the above - we go sideways forever (in the $636.01 to $649.99 range)?


Place your bets, or forever hold your peace!!!!!    


Edit:
Actually, I will concede that none of the above really matters too much - because it is kind of a pointless game regarding short-term price movements.. that are really, in my humble bumble opinion, a crap shoot, for the most part.  

A more important measurement is that maybe we need something like a 5% to 6% adjustment in the price order for the price movement to matter within the current price channel?

In that regard, which of the ends do we break first?  $608 or $685?    I think that the odds are slightly in favor of breaking above $685 before we break below $608.  Thoughts?



Edit 2:
After watching the bid wall for about 10 minutes, it appears that the wall is more or less a flash wall that is continuously moving.  Whether it's the same player or different players flashing their coins, who really knows, except maybe some of the folks holding those coins? 

Furthermore, after I typed the above post, the price moved immediately upwards by $6 or so (almost 1%) on the volume of 600 coins, and then nearly completely retraced - and this could be a sign of action or just a kind of faking out and/or a test move.  Thoughts?

Not all. If you have been thinking about selling take a look at klee's analysis here at https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.15334516

it seems the chartists are conflicted on if we go down from here or if we have a leg up and then crash. but the common denominator is crash. :/

Well, welcome back to this forum and hopefully you will begin to participate in this thread and forum again.  

In my thinking it is a good thing to have interactive participation of actual people who have been active in the bitcoin space for a number of years, especially when they also have historical perspectives and attempt to reconcile those historical perspectives with current bitcoin related happenings.

We don't necessarily need to agree in order to profit and maybe even hone our own perspectives from these kinds of sharing of ideas.


Edit:  by the way, I just looked at your old account and some of your posts, and yeah, I see that it appears that you had participated quite a bit in this thread with that account.

Im not a newbie, I've been here since the first wall observer thread that is no longer used. Those were the days! My old account "hyphymikey" is no longer usable after this site was hacked a while back using the avatars or whatever it was. I was f@cking almost to Legendary status too, was just waiting on the random post thingy to get my promotion, then the site went down, then they said that I had to pay to get my account back or some shit. I had since moved to the other forum, but just wanted to post my thoughts here.

You surely know a lot for a newbie, and there may be a lot of truth in what you are saying.

Nonetheless, we need to consider some of these kinds of claims with a grain of salt because they are so conspiratorial, including the assertion that the most recent bitfinex outages were on purpose.

Furthermore, many of us, just like you, recognize that ongoing pressure for coins by regular people does place limits to the extent to which prices can be downwardly manipulated - even when there may be a considerable amount of over the counter (OTC) BTC purchasing transactions.   As you suggest, the OTC buy pressures on the price to be upwards remains indirect, rather than direct.

Yeah right... if you are attempting to analyze on such a short term basis, you can say whatever you want.

Even if you zoom out a bit and look over the weekend, there are slightly up prices, but maybe we can give the benefit of the doubt and assert that prices are flat...

Regarding volume, this has also been pretty decent over the weekend, and if you are merely looking at the past 24 hours, you are attempting to be too selective in your assessment because bitcoin is not merely a 24 hour phenomenon but instead you gotta put some context to it in order to see where you are at and then to attempt to predict where you are going from a broader viewpoint. 

Currently, bitcoin is in a very decent position, even if prices were to float between $550 and $650 for some time, but many of us likely have the sense that there continues to be considerable upwards price pressures.. and quite a bit of buying pressure once prices dip into the $500s, so a $600 to $700 range could be more realistic for the short term.. and even with that price range there continues to be upwards price pressures with ongoing news events such as Brexit and some of the other world financial calamities along with the upcoming halvening of bitcoin in a few days, the progress on seg wit that seems to be in very early stages of release.. and some of the troubles with Ethereum/Dao are likely generally bullish (more than bearish) for bitcoin.

The big news sites kept that quiet. So the ECB reaction to the Brexit event is to start printing just a shitload of money. The big news sites are saying don't panic, and the ECB starts panic printing money the second the Brexit event starts. That's bearish for fiat and bullish for bitcoin.

LMAO  

why would they need to bother manipulating the market down to sell coins ?? isn't a handshake good enough ?? it seems like a higher exchange price would be better for them to get the best price for the coins they are trying to sell. that has been my experience with OTC sales outside of the exchange. i got burnt by one of those outside the exchange sales, which is why i generally don't buy bitcoins at these prices. The problem with this whole thing is the scaling issue. they did not fix it before the halvening hype. there is a reason why it hasnt been fixed. they could fix it at anytime (in case u liquidate) or not fix it (in case u buy to many coins at the top of the market thinking we are a #moonshot) .

i'm not sure why BFX went down last week, however, i think the smash down was to get some peoples to liquidate into bitcoin. just like a higher high could cause some people to liquidate their bitcoin holdings. right after u liquidate thinking u made a profit to buy back cheaper is when bitcoin will head on up to new ATH leaving you in fiat, or u can buy back at a loss. my opinion of bitcoin is that it is a manipulated i ways meant to make u lose, or trick you into a bad move. that is why i keep my coins i mined in cold storage. i think this halvening hype pump is all faked.

i think the brexit non-event in bitcoin shows us that bitcoin is not a go to safe haven like the media has been trying to make us all believe.

This whole situation has got me buying popcorn... .

BURRRRRRRRRRNN!!!! (lets have a real stress test of these banks)

Long time coming.

Them spinning plates are starting to wobble just that little bit more.

I am glad.

Addressed. we are committed to being more agile and responsive in this new dawn/shitshow.



I dunno. i only got the job posting here because i'm the only one who knows how to use a computer. i'll have to wait for the big dogs to give me an update down those sucky tubes that spit messages on pieces of paper out.

I wanna know what youre ECB overlords will do with 444b Euro's (created out of thin air) during this ''Brexit event''



http://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omo/html/20160065.en.html

This price is so depressing that is actually bullish. Accumulating

A few thing people here don't seem to understand:

Most buying is done off exchanges and OTC. By a wide margin too.

China is not leading this market.

No fee Chinese exchanges are being used to "control" the market, because bots are linked and people think China is leading the market.

Bitfinex is linked to Chinese exchanges to provide liquidity. Just like when BFX was linked to Stamp. That is why some full orderbooks are not shown. When a large drop occurs on Chinese exchanges the volume stays within the range, while Bitfinex drops with larger volume than normal. This is a combination of bot manipulation and Bitfinex offering liquidity.

The rise to nearly 800 was one entity, the OTC sellers and buyers waited until this entity was done and then plopped up over 25K BTC in ask walls, now it's up to 35K. The 35K BTC is a mix of real coins and borrowed coins for sale. You can see this by looking at the full order book, you notice the amounts for sale at XXX.37 repeatedly at every dollar interval? There are other patterns you will see as well.

The OTC buyers put sell pressure on BFX to keep the price down, so their OTC purchase will save them millions, by only making people who look at exchanges think we aren't mooning yet. Without their "fake" sell pressure we would be at ATH.

OTC firms do not care about this "manipulation" because they get a percentage in BTC and know that they will sell much more BTC OTC when the price is reasonable and not mooning. OTC firms might also be in on the fake sell pressure.

My guess is currently someone wants to buy OTC in the $650 range, or an OTC firm is seeing an influx of customers and is easier to just have stable prices for everyone Brexiting or running from their fiat market.

The Bitfinex "malfunction" was deliberate. Using statements from above you can see that dropping the Chinese exchanges prices are easy, causing all the longs on BFX to be force liquidated. Well guess who bought up all those coins that were liquidated while also putting the price back in their range? BFX has a ton of fees in BTC to sell, and guess how they do it? That's right, mostly OTC. And if a buyer says "no way I'm paying $700+ for those coins when the price has only been at this level for a week", then BFX has only one thing to do, bring the price back down in the OTC range.

Long term holders like myself, 4+ years, know this is going on and don't really care about exchange rates YET, because one day millions of small buyers who will only use exchanges will overpower any manipulation put forth by OTC markets and online exchanges.

pound will always be ok, it's not gonna drop more than 30% which is the most pessimistic i can be. bitcoin however could easily. i agree. the hedge shit is pure fantasy.

"hey i'm an average dude with a family that i'm responsible for in a crumbling economy, i think i'll dump all my money in bitcoin" - no one ever.