Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 18638. (Read 26708043 times)

Nice churn down here around the 680-700 level, an important area from 2014...should see the spike to 900-990 soon..Then the real pullback will begin..

You are arguing for microtransactions when it's impossible to have microtransactions on a blockchain.  Yes, 5 cent and 20 cent transactions are still cheap because even if you raised blocksize 10x higher, the transaction fee would still eventually become so high that only $10,000 transactions and more would be valid even with 8-10MB blocks.  The only thing that would allow you to do microtransactions is a second tier system like Lightning Network or off-chain solutions like Circle and Coinbase debit cards.  Anything directly on chain will always be expensive.

In short, you make no valid points because you are arguing for microtransactions directly on-chain when it's not possible.

volume is dieing down.

time to PUMP it up another 20%

That's a very good explanation toknormal. Good work.

Everyone here knows that raising the blocksize to 2, 4 or 8mb does not solve bitcoin's scaling problems. What it does provide is a can-kick and delay things to allow more mature and well thought out solutions to be implemented such as lightning.

This is about providing a network in this moment which can absorb current transaction demand and function to allow new users and increased transaction volume without suffering decreased network performance.

Most ardent big blockers would be happy with layer 2.0 solutions eventually. In fact they are a necessity over the longer term. But artificially constraining blockspace now risks a jettison of speculative value to other chains or from crypto entirely. And for what? To allow some developers to keep control of an open source software client?

my theory will be put the to test before bitcoin actually becomes currency used world wide

in <2 years the market will have more or less saturated as an alternative to gold + a remittance tool, once speculators feel the market is fully saturated and the pump and dump is over and we appear to have found a "fair price" ( 32,000$ / bitcoin )
Then speculators will begin to do as i described, they will expect bitcoin to grow at roughly 5% a year and you will see that price of 1 BTC will become VERY stable while its actual demand varies significantly month to month.

after a few years of this very stable price, we will know we are ready to for the decentralization of world domination and one last mega bubble targeting 5 million / coins will materialize.

Well, first of all, there's not really such a thing as "THE" correction. Each chart range has its own definition of a correction. So for example, as you already observed, the shorter range charts have completed their "correction" and are in the green. But their cycles are so short that they don't really count for most people. You're probably thinking of a timescale in terms of a few days (e.g. the last big rise lasted a few days and the subsequent correction has lasted a couple of days). So the chart that corresponds to that sort of timescale would be the 4-hour or the 6-hour.

Secondly, every trader has their preferred indicators that they give different priorities to depending on what type of stock they're trading, the nature of the market, timescales, volatility etc.

In the bitcoin market, I tend to use momentum indicators at short ranges and volume at long ranges (for example On Balance Volume which I find is useless on a day to day basis but very informative on a month to month basis).

So in conclusion my own definition of "when the current correction has ended" (which is purely subjective - other people will have other definitions) is when the 4-Hour MACD indicator shows that selling momentum is exhausted at that particular chart range.

Thats when this little indicator's red bars get shorter and start turning green again...



So you see how the blue and brown lines are still quite parallel ? That shows that the market is still being driven down at that chart range (it's being driven up at lower order ranges - shorter timescales). However, the histogram shows that the lines are starting to converge which means the rate of selling is slowing, even though it's still being driven down. When the blue line crosses the brown, the buy and sell momentum have reached equilibrium and many traders pick a chart range to trade and go long at that point.

It's not bullet proof though. It's just one indicator. Sometimes you get a double dip right at the crossover point and you get a huge cash-out instead. That can happen if trading sentiment reverses and shorters use the crossover point to anticipate maximum liquidity into which to dump. Right now, with halving coming up and stuff, I don't really see that happening but you know what these markets are like, anything can happen  

Of course, it is worth the price, yet we have to consider these kinds of assessments as bitcoin's market cap goes up... and that is if it continues to go up.

Accordingly, if we are at a bit over $10billion market cap, a lot of volatility matters are going to be worked out, in the event that bitcoin's market cap goes to $1trillion or $10 trillion or $100trillion.

Of course, the level of volatility and ability to manipulate is going to be different in each of these possible market cap scenarios, and likely also, there remains a lot of known unknowns and unknown unknowns that are going to affect how a lot of this volatility and price manipulation plays out which also depends upon if we go up in price and market cap, how far and how fast.

Usually when the cone ends we get a decisive move. For now ... It will probably take at least another day of prices between 680 < - > 690 till they make a decision. Unless a whale intervenes and speeds things up or slows them down.  

Does China ever sleep anyway?

Well see what happened after 1-2 hour when china waking up..

And not everyone on the planet has to run a node.

You're thinking like a monopolist again. The first mover advantage is not a sufficient barrier to competition from cars that do 20-30 MPH.

I remember you used to write somewhat coherently on raising the blocksize, if not everything else, what happened? Drank too deeply from Gregory's cup?

Good example, respect

How will we know if the correction has ended or not ?

No. It's still in progress. (The bicycle pedal can be going up, even when the bike's going down a hill. What you're seeing is just the pedal, the bike has not yet really confirmed it's changed trajectory).

Ok Mr Adam Varoufakis.

I'll accept your theory into the coinomics hall of fame and candidature for potential decentralised monetary policy even though I don't agree with it and we'll just see if it works out.

I suppose there's enough voodoo logic in the current system to make anything look good so you never know.

In the meantime at least it looks like it might be worth the price, whether its stable or not  

Invalid example.  Not everyone on the planet has to pay for your gas (verification).

^Personal automobile. Like a king

My car will never go 300 MPH, and would break if it somehow could. Does that mean I should keep a speed limiter in place to keep it under 10 MPH?

Also, you didn't answer my question... next!

Care to elaborate more please ?


But isn't the correction is over ? As I see we've started to go up again.

Because many traders like to go long at the end of the 4-hour chart correction which is currently struggling a bit to pull its socks up.

In momentum terms, the reason it's struggling is due to an adverse cyclical harmonic in the lower order ranges, specifically the 15 minute range. The rest are not inhibiting to a trend reversal but the 15-minute cycle is.

However, now that I noticed that I also see that the 6-hour chart cycle has started correcting as well, so maybe we've got a day or two of this to go yet.