Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19122. (Read 26607949 times)

jepp, honestly same here. with all that bullshit we should be fighting with the 300$ mark instead of 400$ imo

^I'm surprised it's not in the 300s... Not joking.

it will drop until we have a solution to this blocksize-mess

100 btc = 600 bax  .."only"

YES...   not look good ...421.710..........

incoming nothing.it's on. 6 bucks dropped in two hours and still going? prepare the lube, someone's getting screwed.

smells like a BIG drop is incoming

Right, "(ignoring hashrate drop, ignoring price fluctuation, ignoring everything)." I'm not at all sure that the price will go up -- if that was a certainty, one could categorically state that the *entire world is stupid* because not mortgaging home & investing everything, along with Pumpkin's college fund, in BTC. Because can't lose, so why not?

been getting repeatedly spiked down and worked lower last 3 days now despite some seemingly heavy resistance ... basically it didn't breach $450 or 3000cny on the upswing from the looks of it and so down it goes ... now about $20 off from the $445 it hit 3 days ago ... pretty brutal and demoralizing but i assume that's the idea it always is ... we'll see if it goes up from 425 , 420 , or somewhere between there and 400 ...

I'm not checking your math. What you're missing is appreciation in price.

Two things:

1) I didn't say lowest ever. I said lowest in recent memory.

2) Right - you said within 25% or so, and you found a data point to confirm it. I was not arguing against your point, just pointing out that it was way wider thatn your 25% - indeed, at one time Ripple was bigger than Bitcoin. The superfluous tag sentences were merely to drive home how surprised I feel most might be to leran this.

Bonus 3) Well, duh. If Ripple alone used to be bigger than Bitcoin, it is obvious that Bitcoin's market share has indeed been lower than 82.5%. But 82.5% is a recent low.

This is a metric I check once a week or so. When I see any new trend, I go looking for a reason. I think the reason this time is a foolish FOMO into ETH. I think many are likely to end up hurt when this pops. But some other alts are also rising. Is this a trend with legs? I hope not. If Bitcoin dies, the entire crypto field will be set back by a decade or more. But I'm keeping my eye on it.

Nom Nom Nom

I'm with you on block reward being a temporary measure, to be phased out as the fees market develops. We're disagreeing only about *how* the miners should be weened off the block reward -- via a halvening, or gradually.
As we stand, fees are a tiny percentage of miners' revenue -- they'd have to be brought up to something like $3 per tx to make up for the loss of subsidies (or number of users/tx must go up, what, a hundredfold?). My math might be shit, going by ~3tps * 60sec * ~10mins = 25btc reward now; tx = 25/1800 * 425 = $5.90; Cutting reward in half = +$3 per tx, to keep things even (ignoring hashrate drop, ignoring price fluctuation, ignoring everything). I could be totally wrong.

If fees were $1.50 now, I could see people paying $3, but from $.03 to $3 is a bit of a stretch.
Doubling blocksize limit only gets us to $1.50/tx, still no help, so we're looking at something happening with the miners. I think

Anyhow, only questioning the rationality of abrupt halving, not viability of fee-subsidized mining.

Hello?   That's not what I said.

O.k... I may be a little bit off on my facts, but if you look at coinmarket cap, and you compare bitcoin's market cap on December 22, 2014 of $4.4 Billion to Ripple's market cap of $754 million, I calculate that to be about 17%, yet I did not research all of the market caps of all of the other alts on that same date, but from that quickie research, it appears that your assertion that 82.5% market share for bitcoin as the lowest ever, is not accurate.   By the way, it appears that on December 22, 2014 litecoin had a market cap of about $100 million and Doge had about $18 million...

Now, I am tired of research, yet I think I made my point.   

what's going on with price slippage... or so it seems 

There was a time when Ripple's market cap exceeded that of Bitcoin.

No, really.

Stop laughing - you're gonna feel foolish when you check the facts.

Wasn't there a time in early 2015 in which Ripple had nearly 25% of the market cap of bitcoin?  Seems like it.

I'm sure that there are a lot of decent and all over the place theories regarding these kinds of miner market behaviors. 

Surely miners are speculating in a large number of ways, and surely there are a whole hell-a-va lot of individuals making decision based on knowns, unknowns and speculations about knowns and unknowns.

As market theories describe, there a some aspects of the halving that are already priced in, yet there is some aspects of the halving (like human behaviors and miner behaviors) that no one really knows until the halving actually takes place (and that includes the various responses and behaviors of other rational and irrational actors). 

Furthermore, some technical and/or otherwise insightful people are better able to foresee the impact and the various applications of seg wit and even how seg wit may cause (or forestall) developments and/or blocksize limit increases.  Some of these individual actors are going to plan for the halving really well (maybe partly lucky), and some of them are going to plan for the halving less well (maybe get distracted by some alt coin developments (such as ether) or bitcoin political debates (such as the blocksize debate or governance)), and in the end, the changes in mining and hash rate are both gradual and sudden.. because some kinds of adjustments take longer to gear up for and other changes can be implemented more quickly.

In the end, it is not completely a fog - but in essence, like I already suggested, some predictions are going to be more solid than other predictions regarding how the various market moving actors will behave.

The block reward subsidy was not the intended revenue stream for mining in the long term. A rare metal with the easiest to find surface quantities already found may be loosely analogous. But the analogy breaks down when...

The real product the miners end up producing and relying on for revenue is blockspace. Inflation subsidy is just supposed to pay the bills while we scale up the number of fees paid per transactions.   

The issue is that Core is not responding to requests to officially accept the HK-agreement. As long as they play this silly "Lets wait and see"-game the price will suffer.

Its unbelievable how irresponsible some of core are acting! If BTC goes 200$ they will be quick to adopt the agreement i guess.