Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19359.

bargainbin

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Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on February 14, 2016, 09:38:47 AM

Quote from: bargainbin on February 14, 2016, 08:40:56 AM

Quote from: AlexGR on February 14, 2016, 08:25:37 AM

Quote from: Laosai on February 14, 2016, 06:55:16 AM

Ahah! Ok so all tx do have fees.

The fees currently paid, even for first block inclusion while 'blocks are full' are near zero.

Urgent first block inclusion right now costs 0.03 USD and if you want to go +1-3 blocks, you can drop that to ~1cent. Spamming the blockchain is, for all practical intents and purposes, a very low cost activity.

Why would the miners not simply ignore these transactions?
@roughly 3tps x 60 x 10 = ~1800transactions x 2cents = $36 added to ~$10,000 block reward, making it $10,036?
Is rational self-interest = shitting where they sleep?

I believe they're just keen to solve those blocks before the other guy does it. Innit?

Theoretically, they are interested in sustained profitability (hence *enlightened* self-interest). Being, presumably, rational actors, they wish to make the most *money*, overall.
If solving a blog earlier means BTC price falls (as it would, if teh blogchain becomes too bloated to be practical), then solving a blog earlier don't count for shit.

Laosai

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Activity: 462

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Quote from: AlexGR on February 14, 2016, 09:12:10 AM

Quote from: Laosai on February 14, 2016, 09:08:19 AM

Quote from: AlexGR on February 14, 2016, 08:25:37 AM

Quote from: Laosai on February 14, 2016, 06:55:16 AM

Ahah! Ok so all tx do have fees.

The fees currently paid, even for first block inclusion while 'blocks are full' are near zero.

Urgent first block inclusion right now costs 0.03 USD and if you want to go +1-3 blocks, you can drop that to ~1cent. Spamming the blockchain is, for all practical intents and purposes, a very low cost activity.

Do you have somewhere where you get those informations? Cause it would be usefull to follow this price trend.

Sure: https://bitcoinfees.21.co/

Which fee should I use?

The fastest and cheapest transaction fee is currently 30 satoshis/byte, shown in green at the top.
For the median transaction size of 327 bytes, this results in a fee of 9,810 satoshis.

9810 Satoshi / 100.000.000 x 398$ = 3.9 cents for a 327 byte tx and 2.98 cents for a 250 byte tx. Again that's for first block inclusion - calculated with 30 satoshi per byte. And there are others paying 1-10 or 11-20 etc (you can see the breakdown).

Edit: Uploading photo... right now fees for first block are even lower at 20 satoshi/byte:

Wow! You're full of useful links buddy ^^

That's cool. Even though I got no idea of how you make the equivalent byte/ satoshi (I mean how many bytes does my transaction take depending of the number of bitcoins i send) but it gives you a raw estimation nonetheless! Thanks!

BlindMayorBitcorn

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Quote from: bargainbin on February 14, 2016, 08:40:56 AM

Quote from: AlexGR on February 14, 2016, 08:25:37 AM

Quote from: Laosai on February 14, 2016, 06:55:16 AM

Ahah! Ok so all tx do have fees.

The fees currently paid, even for first block inclusion while 'blocks are full' are near zero.

Urgent first block inclusion right now costs 0.03 USD and if you want to go +1-3 blocks, you can drop that to ~1cent. Spamming the blockchain is, for all practical intents and purposes, a very low cost activity.

Why would the miners not simply ignore these transactions?
@roughly 3tps x 60 x 10 = ~1800transactions x 2cents = $36 added to ~$10,000 block reward, making it $10,036?
Is rational self-interest = shitting where they sleep?

I believe they're just keen to solve those blocks before the other guy does it. Innit?

AlexGR

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Activity: 1708

Merit: 1049

Quote from: Laosai on February 14, 2016, 09:08:19 AM

Quote from: AlexGR on February 14, 2016, 08:25:37 AM

Quote from: Laosai on February 14, 2016, 06:55:16 AM

Ahah! Ok so all tx do have fees.

The fees currently paid, even for first block inclusion while 'blocks are full' are near zero.

Urgent first block inclusion right now costs 0.03 USD and if you want to go +1-3 blocks, you can drop that to ~1cent. Spamming the blockchain is, for all practical intents and purposes, a very low cost activity.

Do you have somewhere where you get those informations? Cause it would be usefull to follow this price trend.

Sure: https://bitcoinfees.21.co/

Which fee should I use?

The fastest and cheapest transaction fee is currently 30 satoshis/byte, shown in green at the top.
For the median transaction size of 327 bytes, this results in a fee of 9,810 satoshis.

9810 Satoshi / 100.000.000 x 398$ = 3.9 cents for a 327 byte tx and 2.98 cents for a 250 byte tx. Again that's for first block inclusion - calculated with 30 satoshi per byte. And there are others paying 1-10 or 11-20 etc (you can see the breakdown).

Edit: Uploading photo... right now fees for first block are even lower at 20 satoshi/byte:

Laosai

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: AlexGR on February 14, 2016, 08:25:37 AM

Quote from: Laosai on February 14, 2016, 06:55:16 AM

Ahah! Ok so all tx do have fees.

The fees currently paid, even for first block inclusion while 'blocks are full' are near zero.

Urgent first block inclusion right now costs 0.03 USD and if you want to go +1-3 blocks, you can drop that to ~1cent. Spamming the blockchain is, for all practical intents and purposes, a very low cost activity.

Do you have somewhere where you get those informations? Cause it would be usefull to follow this price trend.

ChartBuddy

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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Coin

Explanation

bargainbin

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: AlexGR on February 14, 2016, 08:25:37 AM

Quote from: Laosai on February 14, 2016, 06:55:16 AM

Ahah! Ok so all tx do have fees.

The fees currently paid, even for first block inclusion while 'blocks are full' are near zero.

Urgent first block inclusion right now costs 0.03 USD and if you want to go +1-3 blocks, you can drop that to ~1cent. Spamming the blockchain is, for all practical intents and purposes, a very low cost activity.

Why would the miners not simply ignore these transactions?
@roughly 3tps x 60 x 10 = ~1800transactions x 2cents = $36 added to ~$10,000 block reward, making it $10,036?
Is rational self-interest = shitting where they sleep?

AlexGR

legendary

Activity: 1708

Merit: 1049

Quote from: Laosai on February 14, 2016, 06:55:16 AM

Ahah! Ok so all tx do have fees.

The fees currently paid, even for first block inclusion while 'blocks are full' are near zero.

Urgent first block inclusion right now costs 0.03 USD and if you want to go +1-3 blocks, you can drop that to ~1cent. Spamming the blockchain is, for all practical intents and purposes, a very low cost activity.

Laosai

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: ChartBuddy on February 14, 2016, 08:01:07 AM

Coin

Explanation

Well I knew it wouldn't hold. We gonna test the 400$ ceiling for a few days until the market decides between the 420 and the 380.

ChartBuddy

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lister storm

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the price looks really good right now, i hope that people will not just start selling all of their bitcoins

sAt0sHiFanClub

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Warning: Confrmed Gavinista

Quote from: madmat on February 14, 2016, 06:18:06 AM

Quote from: hf100 on February 14, 2016, 06:10:22 AM

Quote from: Denker on February 14, 2016, 06:03:56 AM

Yes!
Bitcoinwisdom shows $400 on average!!
Welcome back!And please stay!!!

Why's it gone over $400 on stamp? Is there no real reason or has something happened to pump up the price? I can't find any giant events that are responsible for it like the US government has decided to ditch the dollar and switch to using nothing but bitcoin.

First classic block.

Look at the version of the block :
https://blockchain.info/fr/block-height/398364

Laosai

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Quote from: molecular on February 14, 2016, 07:08:30 AM

knock knock knocking on heavens door

Mah. Don't say that. I'm sure it gonna get backed by lots of buying trend ^^

Well we all know that 400 is a huge ceiling. Lots of holders want to get rid of part of their investment at such price.

inca

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 14, 2016, 07:07:39 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 14, 2016, 06:30:21 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 14, 2016, 06:21:13 AM

400 held!!!!! That means I don't have to close my short...yet.

Actually watching a wall on the wall observer thread. Whoooda thunk it?

The catch is that the was was invisible. Heluva thing watching bulls batter it over and over without making a dent.

Apparently the market had the opposite reaction that I had to the miner letter. Optimists, I guess.
I don't think it means something until it means something.

It's not over yet. Gosh, we just broke over $400 for a few minutes, and you are calling the end of $400, already? Strange.

Maybe you are right, but it seems fairly likely that we will be going into the $400s, maybe approaching $420 within a few days. I would place it at decent odds, rather than attempting to call it for sure one way or another at this point.

I am not calling it. Just observing the action. Obviously I was very wrong putting in a short in the low $380s. or maybe just early. we'll see.

My problem with shorting a commodity like bitcoin is that the price has a nasty habit of very occasionally disappearing into the stratosphere. Of course the historic bitcoin trend is a long term bullish picture and thus the price could never come back down again leaving you with potentially unlimited losses.. Shocked

blunderer

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Activity: 154

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Quote from: ?? on ??

At some point the network will drop this unconfirmed transaction and it will show up on the original address again.

Do you know the specifics of how this works? Like x number of blocks mined, or x gadzigabites in mempool or?

molecular

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knock knock knocking on heavens door

billyjoeallen

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Hide your women

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 14, 2016, 06:30:21 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 14, 2016, 06:21:13 AM

400 held!!!!! That means I don't have to close my short...yet.

Actually watching a wall on the wall observer thread. Whoooda thunk it?

The catch is that the was was invisible. Heluva thing watching bulls batter it over and over without making a dent.

Apparently the market had the opposite reaction that I had to the miner letter. Optimists, I guess.
I don't think it means something until it means something.

It's not over yet. Gosh, we just broke over $400 for a few minutes, and you are calling the end of $400, already? Strange.

Maybe you are right, but it seems fairly likely that we will be going into the $400s, maybe approaching $420 within a few days. I would place it at decent odds, rather than attempting to call it for sure one way or another at this point.

I am not calling it. Just observing the action. Obviously I was very wrong putting in a short in the low $380s. or maybe just early. we'll see.

ChartBuddy

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Laosai

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Activity: 462

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Quote from: Andre# on February 14, 2016, 05:53:17 AM

Quote from: Laosai on February 14, 2016, 05:35:54 AM

Quote from: Andre# on February 14, 2016, 05:26:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 13, 2016, 08:33:39 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 13, 2016, 08:14:17 PM

We're already seeing blocks fill up on this pump. I'm curious as to how a rally can be sustained when confirmation times take hours.

Yeah, right, whatever. Roll Eyes

The last six months regarding the average block size look pretty stable to me, with a slightly upward trend in the chart.. and that upward trend in the approximately 60% capacity arena potentially could be nearly completely resolved by seg wit.

https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

After seg wit goes into effect, then we can assess the situation and regroup... ..

In other words, transactions etc seem to be going pretty well on the technical side of bitcoin, and maybe some of the public is coming to realize that there are really not any technical problems in bitcoin, and accordingly, if you keep doubling down in selling your supposedly existing coins based on these upward BTC price movements, we may be relieved of you from bitcoin and your baloney posts very, very soon. Cry

Okay, currently blocks are around 0.65 MB, almost double from one year ago (0.35 MB), while the average max. size is around 0.9 MB (assuming almost 1 in 10 blocks is empty). The local minimum average block sizes have been steadily going up in the past half year (which you call "pretty stable"):

- Sep: 0.39 MB
- Oct: 0.43 MB
- Dec: 0.49 MB
- Jan: 0.53 MB

Until mid 2015, the local maxima rarely came above 0.4 MB. That's anything but stable. At this rate, the shit hits the fan in a few months from now.

This graph shows the picture a bit more clearly.
https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Well thanks for the graph.

Indeed you can't really call that stable... I wonder what will happen if it hits the 0.9 before anything is done... Will the tx simply queue? They'll be proceeded in order or randomly? Maybe taking the fee into account?

You gotta take that into account too, even currently lots of tx might have no fee at all. For this one well they should do less transactions and pay a fee with it. That should help a little no?

A tiny minory of tx are processed without fees (214 in the past 24 hours, see https://bitcoinfees.21.co/ ). I think these are mostly payouts of mining pools to miners (what's the point of including a fee to pay yourself?), but I'm not sure. Miners can pick and chose which tx to process. So if there's a persistent lack of capacity, expect the ones with the lowest fees not to be processed. They will be stuck for some days until they expire.

The challenge will be predict what fee you need to pay to avoid your tx to end up stuck. Kind of like going to the supermarket and having to price yourself the items that you buy, running the risk that you'll never make it past the cashier because the price you picked was too low (while the cashiers serve the highest paying customers first).

Ahah! Ok so all tx do have fees.

It gonna be hard having a good estimation of the fee you gotta pay. But what if you're wrong? Will your tx be stuck until it's randomly chosen to complete a block? Or will it be lost until a miner finally accepts it as the fee is high enough compared to other tx of a block?

What I mean is: will it be random or it might get stuck until the end of the time if other tx always have a higher fee?

Laosai

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Merit: 250

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 14, 2016, 06:21:13 AM

400 held!!!!! That means I don't have to close my short...yet.

Actually watching a wall on the wall observer thread. Whoooda thunk it?

The catch is that the was was invisible. Heluva thing watching bulls batter it over and over without making a dent.

Apparently the market had the opposite reaction that I had to the miner letter. Optimists, I guess.
I don't think it means something until it means something.

From what i see you're just incredibly pessimistic. You have more faith in then crash of btc that more bitcoiners have in its success ^^

Seems like you were wrong though. I don't really understand why you have no faith in this currency. No reason for it to go down from what I know.

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19359. (Read 26611230 times)