For a start, the PoW.
After that, it depends.
Depends on what? If the hashpower is not important, and preserving the PoW is not important, then what is the magic factor that would cause all the value to go to the CoreCoin branch instead of the CartelCoin branch?
Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important. If it is sticking with the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. If it is firing the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. There is no answer you or I can state without that information that is more correct than another.
ELI5 the mechanism for the the "economic majority" to make its wishes known & relevant?
The market.
If you own 90% of the coins, you are the market. Obviously not realistic. In reality there are many participants, and they'll trade with one another and work it out. One fork will be worth more than the other, probably a lot more, but who knows.
90% was chosen at random. Let's say I own 5%, and keep in in cold storage, as a "store of value." How do I make my voice count?
Keep in mind, you edited out the important part:
Hell no, holding is what gives it value.
Assuming anyone else wants to buy, they can only buy from miners which is a limited supply. Welcome moon.
If no one else wants to buy any sort of Bitcoin, then you're screwed. Same as would happen tomorrow if we woke up and no one wanted to buy Bitcoin without a fork. No guarantee that won't happen.
If you want guaranteed store of value, independent of what other people value, too fucking bad. About the best you can do is buy a chocolate bar, at least you can eat it.
Perhaps I'm not making myself clear.
You claim: "Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important [will be implemented]."
I ask: Via what mechanism?
You reply: The market, dur!
I ask: What does that mean? I hold 5%, I don't trade it, what mechanisms are available to me to make my opinion count?
Sure, I can try to sell my hodlings, but only post factum. The "economic majority" is not the BTC long-term hodlers, but the*fiat hodlers*, those willing to *buy* BTC.
The miners aren't selling BTC to me, they're selling BTC to people with fiat, those are the opinions that matter, not mine (I'm not buying, remember?)
The interests of buyers != the interests of hodlers != interests of miners.
Those same participants (fiat buyers, BTC holders/speculators, miners, merchants, users, etc.) are there now, determining the value of the coins you hold.
All of those participants will be there later, determining the value of the coins you hold.
If you disagree with the economic majority (market consensus) then by definition you trade, and thereby your opinion matters. If you don't trade, then your opinion matches the market consensus.
I'm gonna try ELY5:
I own a house (my part of the economy), one of the many houses in Bitcoinia (the economy), which, in turn, is conveniently situated below a levee.
Mayoral election coming up. Mayor A wants to nuke the levee (is Socialist, presumably), mayor B doesn't (is Ron Paul).
I ask you: How do I vote for Ron Paul, I don't want to live with communists, underwater!
You reply: Vote with your wallet. If you don't like the Mayor who gets elected, sell the house.
I sputter: Buh...but wouldn't that be too late? My underwater house won't be worth shit, because in a socialist town! I don't want to watch the elections and leave if the commies win, I want a voice. How do I vote? You said I could, because economic majority. But clearly you didn't mean me, I could only react, sell my house when it becomes aquatic.
You: The market will take care of it, invisible hand.
@oda.krell: feel free to field this.
Your whole example is whack because trading markets and voting are two different things. Fail.
Of course they're different things. It's what grownups call an analogy. ELY5 clearly over your head, I'll shoot for ELY3, buddy.
If Gavin/Mike/Jon create a fork and no economic value is behind it (XT for example), the fork will whither and die, either before or after birth.
Economic value for miners != economic value for hodlers ("economic majority"). Miners don't care how they make their filthy fiat, by mining 25 coins & selling those @$400, or by mining 50 coins, and selling them @$200. Hodlers care what their coins are worth tho.
Get it, Tiger?
In the case you described, your coins are worth the same too, just like the miners. Your 25 coins become 50 (25 Gavcoins@200 + 25 Gregcoins@200). No change here. Keep trying.