Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19558. (Read 26609705 times)

legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
Quote
People need to do a bank run in every exchange (maybe even online wallets too) well before we reach the point of the hard fork, to ensure that they have control of their BTCs.

AlexGR raises an excellent point. If there is an upcoming contentious hardfork scheduled then the first things people are going to do is withdraw ALL their coins off the exchanges and out of any custodial services.

All those bitcoin alliance folks and corporates that have made their businesses out of holding on to other people's coins in custody should keep that mind whilst they are pushing for contentious hardforks.

Ah, AlexGR's FUD sidekick...

Which idoits are going to leave their coins on an exchange or with Coinbase or BitGo or Bitpay before a hardfork?

Why leave the vote with them which fork your coins will end up on when you can keep your options open and hedge bets by holding them in cold storage?

Not really clear why people leave quiet coins there in the first place.

Because many people think that those are the best places to keep their own bitcoin, not everyone knows all the implications of leaving coins there.
The Bitcoin world is not only made by people from this forum: I think most of the people who use BTC don't even come here to understand what it is.
We have to be realistic: for the majority of the people BTC = speculation (and we are writing in a speculation thread)

Speculation (intelligently) means understanding the bets you make, and maximizing your expected returns, which includes not getting Goxed. But then, not all speculators are good speculators. It's pretty much zero sum after all, and most lose.
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1006
beware of your keys.
And now for something completely different: something tenously related to trading



Note how the volume pattern changed on OKCoin after the last drop. Before the drop you could see the day/night rythm proper of China's time zone. After the drop there is nearly continuous activity, around the clock. Robot traders frantically proping up the price is not a far-fetched possibility...

The volume pattern before the drop itself was different than what I remembered from 2014.  Then it was smother, more sinusoidal.  The one you see on the image above has strong daily peaks that decay abruptly. Maybe some bitcoin ponzi in China updates his webpage once a day?

Hopefully most of us realize that Chinese exchanges with no fees do not drive btc's market price, except for FUD spreaders still liking to attribute  more than warranted weight to whatever the Chinese no fee exchanges are doing.




explicitly, in fact even if you have a little bitcoins to trade there, you could just ally some of the users to push up the trading volume, that's why www.coinmarketcap.com excludes the volume that the trading site in china has, if included them up, it would be at least a billion or even two. this means the volume 'farming'.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
And now for something completely different: something tenously related to trading



Note how the volume pattern changed on OKCoin after the last drop. Before the drop you could see the day/night rythm proper of China's time zone. After the drop there is nearly continuous activity, around the clock. Robot traders frantically proping up the price is not a far-fetched possibility...

The volume pattern before the drop itself was different than what I remembered from 2014.  Then it was smother, more sinusoidal.  The one you see on the image above has strong daily peaks that decay abruptly. Maybe some bitcoin ponzi in China updates his webpage once a day?

Hopefully most of us realize that Chinese exchanges with no fees do not drive btc's market price, except for FUD spreaders still liking to attribute  more than warranted weight to whatever the Chinese no fee exchanges are doing.


hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 531
Crypto is King.
And now for something completely different: something tenously related to trading



Note how the volume pattern changed on OKCoin after the last drop. Before the drop you could see the day/night rythm proper of China's time zone. After the drop there is nearly continuous activity, around the clock. Robot traders frantically proping up the price is not a far-fetched possibility...

The volume pattern before the drop itself was different than what I remembered from 2014.  Then it was smother, more sinusoidal.  The one you see on the image above has strong daily peaks that decay abruptly. Maybe some bitcoin ponzi in China updates his webpage once a day?
Good point. Something has changed . . . Strange things afoot . . .
hero member
Activity: 737
Merit: 500
Quote
People need to do a bank run in every exchange (maybe even online wallets too) well before we reach the point of the hard fork, to ensure that they have control of their BTCs.

AlexGR raises an excellent point. If there is an upcoming contentious hardfork scheduled then the first things people are going to do is withdraw ALL their coins off the exchanges and out of any custodial services.

All those bitcoin alliance folks and corporates that have made their businesses out of holding on to other people's coins in custody should keep that mind whilst they are pushing for contentious hardforks.

Ah, AlexGR's FUD sidekick...

Which idiots are going to leave their coins on an exchange or with Coinbase or BitGo or Bitpay before a hardfork? Almost all custody coins are going to be going back to their rightful owners before a contentious hardfork, the free market will do its job no?

Why leave the vote with the third party holders which fork your coins will end up on when you can keep your options open and hedge bets by holding them in cold storage for yourself?

*edited.

Of course. But why would it be a problem to withdraw when they don't do fractional reserve? It isn't, and hence, it's not a fear factor.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important. If it is sticking with the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. If it is firing the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. There is no answer you or I can state without that information that is more correct than another.

OK.  But note that the Core devs cannot "fire the miners", just as I cannot fire the Core devs or the miners.  They have no power to stop or hamper the CartelCoin, nor the OldCoin. All they can do is what I can do create the CoreCoin (or StolfiCoin) and hope that people will use it.  They cannot even ask people to choose between the two: each client will start with the same coins on each branch, and can move them independently.

I never mentioned the Core devs.
hero member
Activity: 737
Merit: 500
has anyone noticed that you cant make new btc addresses on exchanges now!, bittrex and polo dont allow it anymore, its one address per account ( with id on polo )
hmm i wonder why??

I just made a new one at Kraken. No problems.
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important. If it is sticking with the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. If it is firing the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. There is no answer you or I can state without that information that is more correct than another.

OK.  But note that the Core devs cannot "fire the miners", just as I cannot fire the Core devs or the miners.  They have no power to stop or hamper the CartelCoin, nor the OldCoin. All they can do is what I can do create the CoreCoin (or StolfiCoin) and hope that people will use it.  They cannot even ask people to choose between the two: each client will start with the same coins on each branch, and can move them independently.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo

toomim and co have cartelised the bitcoin miners under guise of a political movement and don't expect bad outcomes? are they really that naive?
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
And now for something completely different: something tenously related to trading



Note how the volume pattern changed on OKCoin after the last drop. Before the drop you could see the day/night rythm proper of China's time zone. After the drop there is nearly continuous activity, around the clock. Robot traders frantically proping up the price is not a far-fetched possibility...

The volume pattern before the drop itself was different than what I remembered from 2014.  Then it was smother, more sinusoidal.  The one you see on the image above has strong daily peaks that decay abruptly. Maybe some bitcoin ponzi in China updates his webpage once a day?
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
I could do that myself now: make a copy of core, change the PoW formula, and presto: a hard fork happened, and the coin has split.  If the 1000 PH/s is not important, what is the difference between my bitcoin and their bitcoin?

For a start, the PoW.

After that, it depends.

Depends on what?  If the hashpower is not important, and preserving the PoW is not important, then what is the magic factor that would cause all the value to go to the CoreCoin branch instead of the CartelCoin branch? 

Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important. If it is sticking with the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. If it is firing the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. There is no answer you or I can state without that information that is more correct than another.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
I could do that myself now: make a copy of core, change the PoW formula, and presto: a hard fork happened, and the coin has split.  If the 1000 PH/s is not important, what is the difference between my bitcoin and their bitcoin?

For a start, the PoW.

After that, it depends.

Depends on what?  If the hashpower is not important, and preserving the PoW is not important, then what is the magic factor that would cause all the value to go to the CoreCoin branch instead of the CartelCoin branch? 
legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 1422
Quote
People need to do a bank run in every exchange (maybe even online wallets too) well before we reach the point of the hard fork, to ensure that they have control of their BTCs.

AlexGR raises an excellent point. If there is an upcoming contentious hardfork scheduled then the first things people are going to do is withdraw ALL their coins off the exchanges and out of any custodial services.

All those bitcoin alliance folks and corporates that have made their businesses out of holding on to other people's coins in custody should keep that mind whilst they are pushing for contentious hardforks.

Ah, AlexGR's FUD sidekick...

Which idoits are going to leave their coins on an exchange or with Coinbase or BitGo or Bitpay before a hardfork?

Why leave the vote with them which fork your coins will end up on when you can keep your options open and hedge bets by holding them in cold storage?

Not really clear why people leave quiet coins there in the first place.

Because many people think that those are the best places to keep their own bitcoin, not everyone knows all the implications of leaving coins there.
The Bitcoin world is not only made by people from this forum: I think most of the people who use BTC don't even come here to understand what it is.
We have to be realistic: for the majority of the people BTC = speculation (and we are writing in a speculation thread)
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
This isn't really accurate. Satoshi knew exactly where it would go and he never dismissed Hal's outlandish predictions about the value of Bitcoin's either during the conversation in the cryptography mailing list.

Quote
The fact that new coins are produced means the money supply increases by a
planned amount, but this does not necessarily result in inflation. If the
supply of money increases at the same rate that the number of people using it
increases, prices remain stable. If it does not increase as fast as demand,
there will be deflation and early holders of money will see its value increase.

It isn't accurate because JorgeStolfi was either trolling or stubbornly ignoring facts. I already explained to him a few days ago, complete with numerous quotes (though I missed that one -- thanks for finding it), that satoshi was well aware that Bitcoin not only would be a speculative asset but that it was absolutely expected and even required that it would function that way.

It is amazing how people can get such different readings from the same words.  (Just yesterday I was arguing with someone who, like many libertarian bitcoiners believed that the genesis block quote was proof that Satoshi was libertarian and designed bitcoin to get rid of banks and "fiat" money.

Yes, Satoshi obviously designed bitcoin on purpose to have a finite total issuance.  That was a natural mistake, because he  -- like almost everybody, including myself until 2 years ago -- believed that inflation was a bad thing, and that good money therefore should be inflation-free.

But there is a Grand Canyon between that and "was well aware that Bitcoin not only would be a speculative asset but that it was absolutely expected and even required that it would function that way".  I have read somewhere that it was Hal Finney, in fact, who first thought of bitcoin as investment; and Satoshi's reaction was like "oh, yes, you may want to keep some".  

Note that, in the quote above, he is referring to price increasing as the result of growth of demand, not of speculation itself.  In another quote he tries to estimate the growth of the user base, and says that 20% per year (double every 4 years) would be a "crazy  rate of growth.  By that "crazy"  rate, the price of 0.05 USD/BTC in mid-2010 would be ~0.50 USD/BTC now.  

While he does not say that explicitly, that "crazy" price increase rate would be also consistent with his choice for the parameters of the block reward fomula (halving every 4 years).  If the price increase was less than "crazy", say 10% per year, the value of the block reward too would decrease 10% per year, on average; forcing a gradual transition of the mining revenue from block reward to transaction fees.

Instead, speculative trading cause the price to increase 10x per year over the next 4 years, so that the value of the block reward increase instead of decreasing.  That made mining into an industrial activity, which was inevitably  concentrated (a development that he, and any rational person, would have seen as disastrous for the project).  That level of speculative trading also caused huge volatility, that made bitcoin unsuitable as a currency.  

It is absurdly delusional to claim that Satoshi had foreseen these developments, and that they were part of his goal.  The world did not need another speculative instrument; he would not have spent 3 years designing a crazy one.  There is no sense in having naive investors give 1 million dollars each day to secure a payment system used by less than a million people.  

EDIT: typo "5 years  --> "4 years"
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
Quote
People need to do a bank run in every exchange (maybe even online wallets too) well before we reach the point of the hard fork, to ensure that they have control of their BTCs.

AlexGR raises an excellent point. If there is an upcoming contentious hardfork scheduled then the first things people are going to do is withdraw ALL their coins off the exchanges and out of any custodial services.

All those bitcoin alliance folks and corporates that have made their businesses out of holding on to other people's coins in custody should keep that mind whilst they are pushing for contentious hardforks.

Ah, AlexGR's FUD sidekick...

Which idoits are going to leave their coins on an exchange or with Coinbase or BitGo or Bitpay before a hardfork?

Why leave the vote with them which fork your coins will end up on when you can keep your options open and hedge bets by holding them in cold storage?

Not really clear why people leave quiet coins there in the first place.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
Quote
People need to do a bank run in every exchange (maybe even online wallets too) well before we reach the point of the hard fork, to ensure that they have control of their BTCs.

AlexGR raises an excellent point. If there is an upcoming contentious hardfork scheduled then the first things people are going to do is withdraw ALL their coins off the exchanges and out of any custodial services.

All those bitcoin alliance folks and corporates that have made their businesses out of holding on to other people's coins in custody should keep that mind whilst they are pushing for contentious hardforks.

Ah, AlexGR's FUD sidekick...

Which idiots are going to leave their coins on an exchange or with Coinbase or BitGo or Bitpay before a hardfork? Almost all custody coins are going to be going back to their rightful owners before a contentious hardfork, the free market will do its job no?

Why leave the vote with the third party holders which fork your coins will end up on when you can keep your options open and hedge bets by holding them in cold storage for yourself?

*edited.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
I could do that myself now: make a copy of core, change the PoW formula, and presto: a hard fork happened, and the coin has split.  If the 1000 PH/s is not important, what is the difference between my bitcoin and their bitcoin?

For a start, the PoW.

After that, it depends.

Jump to: