After such long, unexpected and exhausting bear stretch I'm just afraid to be an optimist.
Being cynical simply to avoid ridicule is the way of the coward. Rejoice and praise the rocket gifs! We are going to da blimmin mooooon!!!!
Also, I'm a miner so I don't really have a choice.
Granted, cynicism is just the same error as naivety, just in opposite direction. But it's not ridicule what I'm afraid of. It's making wrong bet.
As for "no choice", remember: Even if you are swallowed, you still have two exits.
No one is going to be churned up in the guts of anything. Stop being so negative all the time!
I'm NOT sure about whether the question is about being too negative or NOT... It just seems that the reality of the matter is that we are going to need to see quite a few changes in market dynamics to reverse the bear trend.
Surely, if BTC prices were to double, then a lot of press would come to BTC, and maybe we could continue the upward price trajectory.... on the other hand, now-a-days, as compared with 18 months ago, there are a lot more market mechanisms that allow the shorting of bitcoin... and therefore, it seems that people do NOT even need to hold bitcoin in order to bet against them (or to sell them)... In that regard, seems like that there is some fractional reserve banking going on in the bitcoin world (which seems to be contrary to the public ledger and contrary to the original blockchain design of BTC).
It seems possible that some day, bitcoin market mechanisms will be created that will recognize more value to those people who actually hold actual bitcoins.... but at this point, there seems to be too much diluting of the value of bitcoin going on which seems to be causing downward price pressures, including keeping these prices in the $200s territory for more than 4 months.
Shorting does not hurt an asset's long term value. Shorts all have to cover at some point and that can be instrumental in halting a crash. Also, if the short-sellers gets squeezed, it can be a huge spike. There is no evidence of naked shorts (people selling coins that don't exist) and if it's happening at all it is being done by the exchanges themselves and they have no incentive to do this. They all explicitly claim they don't do or allow naked shorts.
What we are seeing is relative stability. Bitcoin has traded in the same $150 range for over four months, a situation that hasn't happened in years. This is a very good thing as it draws in investors who get frightened off by excessive volatility. Generally speaking investors buy and hold while traders pump and dump.