Sorry guys I had to keep my hat in the closet, so I am posting without one for now.
Still makes you a silly cap wearer in my eyes, don't you worry about it.
If you don't know what the is, it's the Ichimoku Cloud, one of my all-time favorites, I used it back in the
2018 analysis and the more recent
2022 analysis.
Apart from how helpful it is to identify bottoms, it's also great in identifying local trend limits, if you check how the price behaved around the cloud back in 2015 and 2019, when the cloud is "red" and the price enters it, it usually doesn't stop until it hits the highest part of the cloud at the entry time.
I like clouds and otherwise started to get into Ichimoku. I like the how accurate it has been on the 3 Day chart specifically. It's useful for turning $20K level mega bears into bulls over-time at least!
You'll have to excuse the animal emojis. Apparently TV doesn't have arrows anymore, only emjois so use your imagination. Couldn't even find a bear emoji ffs (so squirrel is the bear). FYI, cloud doesn't come with animal emojisIn summary, it recommended selling at $46K in winter 2021 once bearish cross occurred, especially since price was breaking below the cloud. It did also recommend selling at $46K that summer prior to price moving higher, but then a breaking back above recommended re-entering around the same price, ultimately only to bail out again around the same price by winter once price re-tested the bearish cloud.
It was "choppy" back in 2021, but cloud did the job... even if you didn't really gain or lose any money by following it's recommendations. But the real part is how well it identified the bear market... it uses a good combination of price and time it seems, as last year when price was just above $20K, it was screaming that the market was in the worst part of the bear market so far (not in any recovery stage what so ever).
However since this bearish cross around $46K that arrived in December 2021, the cloud was full-blown bearish until the break-out above around $23K or otherwise bullish cross around $22K
(you have to factor in the cross occurs on the chart 20 bars ahead of price - this was originally the part I never understood about the cloud until back testing). At that point it had already recommended buying into the cloud support that had turned bullish around $17.9K to $20.3K, at least that's my interpretation. There is also the bullish/bearish divergence of the cloud, but really it's about the bullish/bearish crossover (red/green) that are the confirmations.
Last week's candle did close INSIDE the cloud, with the highest line of the cloud sitting at $43,444, in the past 2 cycles we took an average of 7 weeks to reach that point, so could we see 43k around mid May!
Highest point of bearish part of cloud on weekly time-frame is $48,800 if not mistaken, unless you are using different settings? Which is ironically very close to the
0.618 fib retracement "target" of $48,560.
Also the highest point of bullish/bearish cloud was $12.7K in 2018/2019, and that was reached by June, in 2015 bear market took until June 2016 by comparison. Personally I think the Weekly cloud is more of a "couter-trade" indicator due to how lagging it is. Ie, when price re-tests it, instead of selling you should be buying (as you pointed out). Whereas Daily time-frame is just way to choppy it seems.