Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 22725. (Read 26715426 times)

sorry not sorry.... i just don't "trust in god" the way you do i guess .... i'm not buying your usd fiat is great theory . i'm sure u wished i did though .

You are looking to gain more by short-term trading, profiting from short-term variations of the price.  That is not a rational strategy, since the expected gain of that activity is slightly negative.  Some traders may make a profit, but some will lose money, and the average gain of all traders (compared to the long-term expected gain) will be negative.

If your expectation of the price increase over the next few years is more than the expected increase in value of other possible investments, then the best strategy is basically invest all your disposable money as soon as you can, and hold until you want to spend your profit.

Otherwise, the best strategy is not to invest at all.

Short-term speculation makes sense only if you believe that there is some key attribute -- knowledge, skill, luck, courage, determination, intelligence, reaction speed -- that increases one's expected profit at day trading, and that you have more of that thing than the average speculative trader out there.

Indeed, it seems that the only reason why day-trading exists is that most people think that they are better than average in that regard.  Which is not likely, since the traders that are dumber than you will go broke and drop out before you do, while the super-traders with robots and privileged information, who are surely better at the game than you, will hang around to the end and will probably take your money before you can take theirs. (You may have noticed the absence lately of several posters who apparently enjoyed eating dog food in order to pay for Risto's cigars and for KnC's global warming plants.)

If you accept that you are no better that the average day-trader, and you have a positive expectation for the price in the long run, short-term trading will give less expected profit than just buy and hold -- because you will not profit from the end-to-end trend during those times when you are holding dollars. For example, if you expect a 20% valuation over 3 years, but you keep 50% dollars and 50% BTC, on the average, over that time frame, then your expected profit will be only 10%. 

A similar conclusion holds if you have a negative expectation for the price in the long term: day-trading is a bad idea, because  you are expected to lose money while you are holding BTC.  If you expect the price to drop 20% over the next 3 years, then, by day-trading with a 50% BTC average position, you will have a 10% expected loss.  Whereas, if you don't invest at all, your loss will be 0%.

If it breaks the trend line currently sitting at around 238-240 with decent volume, it's done.

I prefer fiat over coins. this is what i live of, feed my family with and pay my mortgage with. I trade coins to generate extra fiat for luxury spending. That's about it. If long or short, I only care about Bitcoin as it is volatile and if you apply a bit of TA the last 4 years were profitable. The USD did actaullay prove to be quite a good investment compared to other currencies, such as EUR, RUB and of course BTC... not too sure why you are negative about it.

/edit. and all I read here is how rich everyone will become with btc in future. Buying yachts and Champagne once btc hits 30000 USD. sounds like that everyone is here for the same reason, just applying a different strategy

hmmm well i'm long on everything........i HODL because imo the worst situation to be in is holding usd fiat. ......... i will add to but never pull any out of my mined hoard....that keeps me forever always perma-long no matter what trading i am doing .....i buy few coins to trade gamble play with though ... i going to be like billyjoe soon and start yelling i want MOAR!....... that why i did that because i rather be always long than stuck in usd fiat .... i'm not sure if can classify what i am doing as really trading/gambling or not lol ....

I don't play poker, but it seems to be a good analogy.  Some players may fare consistently better than others on average, by their greater skills at psychological manipulation and play strategies; averaged over all players, however, it is obviously a zero-sum game.

However, in day trading there are thousands of players who do not know each other.  There there seems to be less room for successful psychological manipulation in that case. 

If it breaks the trend line currently sitting at around 238-240 with decent volume, it's done.

Why do you keep doing it, Bitcoiners? 

I'm curious what you think of poker and how it compares to the argument you are making.

definetly more predictable and profitable than gambling...

Ha.

This is where tarmi tells us he dumped at 258.

I'm curious what you think of poker and how it compares to the argument you are making.

nice, Bulls now paying 0.05% on var and 0.07% on top for their lev. in addition they are getting burned again. This is goona hurt.