@ jjg
your assessment that btc over the next 10-20 years is it will have the highest rate of return is something I am prepared for.
i am prepared for it to do other things such as
what gold did from 1992 to 2003
that is stay in slot 200-400 usd.
btc from dec 2022 to 2033 stays in a slot from 16k to 50k
my methods will allow me to survive that.
or go as high as 500k same time slot.
but remember i get coins at 50% with my mining deal.
there are not a lot of us doing this.
Well? I wonder whether bitcoin adoption will increase by 2033?
What are we starting with?
less than 1% of the world's population (1% is around 80 million)? there are other kinds of ways of measuring adoption? What about companies and countries getting into bitcoin? Are they going to be purged in order to end up experiencing a net gain or net loss in the various bitcoin network effects? and even from those who are already adopted are they sufficiently adopted, or low coiners? Surely some are hoarders. such as Saylor who is overly represented in terms of the quantity of BTC that he holds and how much he might want to continue to get in the coming 10 years - or will he suffer net losses in the quantities of his coins respective to his current holdings which I believe is currently around 132,500 coins or something like that. Anyone else trying to do a saylor (and being successful at it?).
Yes, we need to prepare for all scenarios, and to me it sounds as if you are cheerleading a $16k to $50k scenario as if it were a likely scenario. I am personally prepared because i am going to continue to do whatever I do.. which is live my life and to spend in accordance to my budget which is already quite a bit higher than my cost of living and/or my anticipated cost of living... so personally, I am not really worried about a possible ranging scenario as you describe, even though it seems to be pretty low on the likelihood scale, at least from my current perspective.
By the way, a doubling of the value of an asset in 10 years brings us around the average of what the stock market had done historically, so if we are looking at bitcoin is it performing the same as the stock market? underperforming it? or over performing it? What are our other allocations and/or cashflow sources? Might some of our other investment and cashflow sources dry up? sure it is possible, but maybe we would not create a base case around something that we are prepared for.. just in case more bearish scenarios might end up playing out.. in the next 10 years or whatever other period we choose to try to prognosticate (and prepare for).