Late evening and the dude sees 2-3 pages of languages he doesn’t speak
Please memes, choppers, gentlemen and congrats…
That’s all I ask for.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 238. (Read 26711388 times)
November 15, 2024, 06:18:01 PM
November 15, 2024, 06:12:22 PM
https://x.com/_Vote_Orange_/status/1856802889278394426
Let's also not forget, that it was under Gary Gensler's watch that FTX was allowed to not only exist with zero oversight, but also thrive for several years, only in the end to destroy people's lives with jaw-dropping Ponzi mega fraud.
Let's also not forget, that it was under Gary Gensler's watch that FTX was allowed to not only exist with zero oversight, but also thrive for several years, only in the end to destroy people's lives with jaw-dropping Ponzi mega fraud.
Considering where most of the money went, this was almost certainly not an accident.
exactly!!
afaik no donations were paid back... although they received stolen money (at least in part)
November 15, 2024, 06:09:22 PM
Many pundits give roughly a range of 134K-327K top for this cycle.
See here, for example:
https://coingape.com/bitcoin-price-to-hit-327k-if-this-happens-peter-brandt-predicts/
This guy (P. Brandt) is good, usually.
Here is some quick paper napkin math:
In the prior two cycles we went from 3.2K lows to 15.7K lows.
Assuming similar proportion, next LOW (if extended similarly) could be (15.7/3.2)X15.7=77K.
The proportion of the drop seem to decline slowly cycle to cycle from 94% to 87% to 84% to 77% or thereabout.
Therefore, if the next low would be a next number in the progression aka 70% decline, then the next top (in this cycle) "ought" to be 77/0.3=about 257K, which is approx in the middle (average is $231.5) of the range above.
Not an investment advice.
See here, for example:
https://coingape.com/bitcoin-price-to-hit-327k-if-this-happens-peter-brandt-predicts/
This guy (P. Brandt) is good, usually.
Here is some quick paper napkin math:
In the prior two cycles we went from 3.2K lows to 15.7K lows.
Assuming similar proportion, next LOW (if extended similarly) could be (15.7/3.2)X15.7=77K.
The proportion of the drop seem to decline slowly cycle to cycle from 94% to 87% to 84% to 77% or thereabout.
Therefore, if the next low would be a next number in the progression aka 70% decline, then the next top (in this cycle) "ought" to be 77/0.3=about 257K, which is approx in the middle (average is $231.5) of the range above.
Not an investment advice.
Since ETF's / more capital is involved now, the decline could be way less than before (maybe only 50%). which meant a top way less than 257k. In addition, the parabolic blow-offs might be tamed by the bigger (and slower) amount of money involved.
However, there might be a flipping point, when huge capital gets deployed in a short time all these calculations go out of the window and price could easily explode to 500k+ this cycle. IMO less than a 20% chance though.
SOMA of course
November 15, 2024, 06:04:21 PM
MSTR is at 2.84X NAV.
Wow...MSaylor keeps convincing people to give him money (in form of a stock premium ) to buy more and more bitcoin. I wonder when this gravy train would slow down.
Bought a very small MSTZ position today. Will use it as a "sensor" for MSTR "mania".
If premium would start collapsing-then i would buy more as a hedge.
Bitcoin has to triple in a short order to justify current MSTR price.
Not selling btc, though.
EDIT: two-three old s-t coins are in the lead in the last few days....mamma mia!
I feel that it is OK to have 1% in those "bastards"
To me they are cash sources...instead of btc, which is precious.
Wow...MSaylor keeps convincing people to give him money (in form of a stock premium ) to buy more and more bitcoin. I wonder when this gravy train would slow down.
Bought a very small MSTZ position today. Will use it as a "sensor" for MSTR "mania".
If premium would start collapsing-then i would buy more as a hedge.
Bitcoin has to triple in a short order to justify current MSTR price.
Not selling btc, though.
EDIT: two-three old s-t coins are in the lead in the last few days....mamma mia!
I feel that it is OK to have 1% in those "bastards"
To me they are cash sources...instead of btc, which is precious.
There is a detailed explantion of the MSTR strategy here: https://youtu.be/0R9gq4zIlCg?si=rhI-om7O7gW2QnfB&t=690
Skip the first 11 minutes of introduction.
Yeah, i just think that it is "moderately" overextended, that's all.
That said, here is MSaylor "preaching" at Cantor Fitzerald's dinner (the man is very persuasive, of course):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LqpGrWGNqE
November 15, 2024, 06:01:13 PM
November 15, 2024, 05:53:20 PM
I do not believe that this person deliberately hodled for long. I can hardly imagine anyone being so strong to resist the temptation to move even a single satoshi, after witnessing such immense price swings over the years.
More likely, he lost access all this time and only recently managed to recover it. He must have absolutely shit his pants with joy.
More likely, he lost access all this time and only recently managed to recover it. He must have absolutely shit his pants with joy.
...or he has other old addresses he sold prior from
...sry for being late, just read that LoyceV wrote the same
My guess: whoever moved this owns a lot more and sold some before. Never sell everything.
November 15, 2024, 05:51:50 PM
MSTR is at 2.84X NAV.
Wow...MSaylor keeps convincing people to give him money (in form of a stock premium ) to buy more and more bitcoin. I wonder when this gravy train would slow down.
Bought a very small MSTZ position today. Will use it as a "sensor" for MSTR "mania".
If premium would start collapsing-then i would buy more as a hedge.
Bitcoin has to triple in a short order to justify current MSTR price.
Not selling btc, though.
EDIT: two-three old s-t coins are in the lead in the last few days....mamma mia!
I feel that it is OK to have 1% in those "bastards"
To me they are cash sources...instead of btc, which is precious.
Wow...MSaylor keeps convincing people to give him money (in form of a stock premium ) to buy more and more bitcoin. I wonder when this gravy train would slow down.
Bought a very small MSTZ position today. Will use it as a "sensor" for MSTR "mania".
If premium would start collapsing-then i would buy more as a hedge.
Bitcoin has to triple in a short order to justify current MSTR price.
Not selling btc, though.
EDIT: two-three old s-t coins are in the lead in the last few days....mamma mia!
I feel that it is OK to have 1% in those "bastards"
To me they are cash sources...instead of btc, which is precious.
There is a detailed explantion of the MSTR strategy here: https://youtu.be/0R9gq4zIlCg?si=rhI-om7O7gW2QnfB&t=690
Skip the first 11 minutes of introduction.
November 15, 2024, 05:31:23 PM
buddy we are missing those 91’s 92’s and 93k’s
92K and above coming Soon.
yeah i have an in with buddy. its all those sandwiches 🥪 i made for him.
debating to buy another miner and ship it to my host.
if we can go to 94k I am going to get it.
November 15, 2024, 05:30:54 PM
Are we having the 100k party we talked about years ago?
not yetat least Saylor is planning it
https://x.com/saylor/status/1856751208977109199
Hmm, how does one 'buy-in'? Signed message from a wallet containing a minimum quantity of coins? That'd be nice and exclusive
Saylor is badly loaded even for a 2011 wallet
November 15, 2024, 05:25:40 PM
buddy we are missing those 91’s 92’s and 93k’s
92K and above coming Soon.
November 15, 2024, 05:03:47 PM
--JJG sized multi-snips--
If you think about it, even with all of your lovely math, you said that you were losing on longs
As soon as she finds herself up, you can close your position with a tiny profit.
What matters is
1. Not getting liquidated, so you remain in play
2. Having a fairly long time horizon, so she has time to float in her preferred direction (uppity).
I wouldn't do perpetuals because in general I don't short. If longing perpetuals, you almost always pay interest, as I explained in the quoted post.
Think if the 89.7x profits were not in fiat ($1 becomes $89.7) but in corn (0.01BTC becomes 0.897BTC)
This said, I do not advise trading except
with a little throwaway play stash.
I certainly do not advise SHORTING.
Of course you can't be bothered with this risky, sweaty business
you've reached your accumulation goals.
0.63BTC is nothing to be sneezing at
What matters is
1. Not getting liquidated, so you remain in play
2. Having a fairly long time horizon, so she has time to float in her preferred direction (uppity).
I wouldn't do perpetuals because in general I don't short. If longing perpetuals, you almost always pay interest, as I explained in the quoted post.
Is it even possible to be more happier than 89.7x profits in 11-ish years?
Yessir it is, much very happier.Think if the 89.7x profits were not in fiat ($1 becomes $89.7) but in corn (0.01BTC becomes 0.897BTC)
This said, I do not advise trading except
with a little throwaway play stash.
I certainly do not advise SHORTING.
Of course you can't be bothered with this risky, sweaty business
you've reached your accumulation goals.
0.63BTC is nothing to be sneezing at
If you think about it, even with all of your lovely math, you said that you were losing on longs
No, what I actually said is:
With inverse futures (the garden variety "crypto" futures),
if leverage < 1:1 only longs CAN mathematically be liquidated.
Shorts can't.
If leverage > 1:1, there's no sanctuary.
November 15, 2024, 05:01:12 PM
November 15, 2024, 04:43:07 PM
As I understand it the real risk is in the way a wallets spends a P2PK UTXO.
It's not that. It's that it sits on a public key that everyone can see, whereas normally, coins sit on a hash. Once you spend the coins, you reveal the public key, but there's a tangible difference between leaving it known for years and for 10 minutes, until mempool clears. Quantum computers cannot do this reversal, though. It's going to take years, and it's still questionable of whether they will be capable of reversing the public key in a reasonable time.
November 15, 2024, 04:38:11 PM
Dat fee..
My guess: whoever moved this owns a lot more and sold some before. Never sell everything.
117 inputs. This was almost certainly a consolidation of a miner, probably amateur.
November 15, 2024, 04:36:22 PM
I do not believe that this person deliberately hodled for long. I can hardly imagine anyone being so strong to resist the temptation to move even a single satoshi, after witnessing such immense price swings over the years.
More likely, he lost access all this time and only recently managed to recover it. He must have absolutely shit his pants with joy.
More likely, he lost access all this time and only recently managed to recover it. He must have absolutely shit his pants with joy.
I can tell you with absolute certainty those people do exist.
Though some of us did move coins out of quantum vulnerable early addresses earlier than yesterday.
aren't they all more or less similarly "quantum" vulnerable?
care to provide a reference to such claims (that distinguish between early and late addresses)?
As I understand it the real risk is in the way a wallets spends a P2PK UTXO. That reveals the public key and quantum computer could use that data to execute double spend.
But I really do not know much about it.
November 15, 2024, 04:34:40 PM
JUST IN: Satoshi era Bitcoin wallet just moved 2,000 BTC for the first time since 2010
ORIGINAL POST:
Transaction doesn't exist! The FUD begins!
CORRECTED POST:
ALERT: Transaction DOES EXIST!
https://mempool.space/tx/983311045cf0bbf09b9469ed9699585194285494d048a96058e9dd444b33b7ae
For some reason it didn't appear on mempool.space.. and i noticed there wasn't any comments about it not existing... So i queried my Bitcoin Node and there is was confirmed!
bitcoin-cli getrawtransaction 983311045cf0bbf09b9469ed9699585194285494d048a96058e9dd444b33b7ae
020000007507f03266a3c08263fb15dd7b17ece8a87756353519a66d01....68ed5d92f560bf0f9 32302c5eea0287b8470d00
Never Trust, Always Verify
I agree - never trust AI and always verify - there are no ohs only zeros
983311045cf0bbf09b9469ed9699585194285494d048a96058e9dd444b33b7ae
https://mempool.space/tx/983311045cf0bbf09b9469ed9699585194285494d048a96058e9dd444b33b7ae
edit: I used a image to text converter and I had the same initial problem of a non-existent tx
November 15, 2024, 04:31:53 PM
https://x.com/_Vote_Orange_/status/1856802889278394426
Let's also not forget, that it was under Gary Gensler's watch that FTX was allowed to not only exist with zero oversight, but also thrive for several years, only in the end to destroy people's lives with jaw-dropping Ponzi mega fraud.
Let's also not forget, that it was under Gary Gensler's watch that FTX was allowed to not only exist with zero oversight, but also thrive for several years, only in the end to destroy people's lives with jaw-dropping Ponzi mega fraud.
Considering where most of the money went, this was almost certainly not an accident.
November 15, 2024, 04:28:24 PM
Though some of us did move coins out of quantum vulnerable early addresses earlier than yesterday.
If you left thousands of bitcoins on a hard drive, mined or received, using Satoshi's Bitcoin client back in 2010, and haven't touched them since, it might be time to reevaluate your risk tolerance in life. You could have easily lost access to these coins. aren't they all more or less similarly "quantum" vulnerable?
care to provide a reference to such claims?
If you mined them and left them mined, they are considered vulnerable. If you sent them to an address, they're not. (Public keys are vulnerable, not addresses.) And it's still not feasible to reverse public key to private. It's just considered easier than brute forcing an address. care to provide a reference to such claims?
November 15, 2024, 04:26:25 PM
I do not believe that this person deliberately hodled for long. I can hardly imagine anyone being so strong to resist the temptation to move even a single satoshi, after witnessing such immense price swings over the years.
More likely, he lost access all this time and only recently managed to recover it. He must have absolutely shit his pants with joy.
More likely, he lost access all this time and only recently managed to recover it. He must have absolutely shit his pants with joy.
I can tell you with absolute certainty those people do exist.
Though some of us did move coins out of quantum vulnerable early addresses earlier than yesterday.
Aren't they all more or less similarly "quantum" vulnerable?
care to provide a reference to such claims (that distinguish between early and late addresses)?
Nevermind..seems as mostly to do with earlier BitcoinJS library vuln.
Maybe "quantum" could just sniff them out easier.
November 15, 2024, 04:24:13 PM
Many pundits give roughly a range of 134K-327K top for this cycle.
See here, for example:
https://coingape.com/bitcoin-price-to-hit-327k-if-this-happens-peter-brandt-predicts/
This guy (P. Brandt) is good, usually.
Here is some quick paper napkin math:
In the prior two cycles we went from 3.2K lows to 15.7K lows.
Assuming similar proportion, next LOW (if extended similarly) could be (15.7/3.2)X15.7=77K.
The proportion of the drop seem to decline slowly cycle to cycle from 94% to 87% to 84% to 77% or thereabout.
Therefore, if the next low would be a next number in the progression aka 70% decline, then the next top (in this cycle) "ought" to be 77/0.3=about 257K, which is approx in the middle (average is $231.5) of the range above.
Not an investment advice.
See here, for example:
https://coingape.com/bitcoin-price-to-hit-327k-if-this-happens-peter-brandt-predicts/
This guy (P. Brandt) is good, usually.
Here is some quick paper napkin math:
In the prior two cycles we went from 3.2K lows to 15.7K lows.
Assuming similar proportion, next LOW (if extended similarly) could be (15.7/3.2)X15.7=77K.
The proportion of the drop seem to decline slowly cycle to cycle from 94% to 87% to 84% to 77% or thereabout.
Therefore, if the next low would be a next number in the progression aka 70% decline, then the next top (in this cycle) "ought" to be 77/0.3=about 257K, which is approx in the middle (average is $231.5) of the range above.
Not an investment advice.
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