Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 239. (Read 26711447 times)

Dat fee..  

---

117 inputs. This was almost certainly a consolidation of a miner, probably amateur.

As I understand it the real risk is in the way a wallets spends a P2PK UTXO.  That reveals the public key and quantum computer could use that data to execute double spend.

But I really do not know much about it.

 
I agree - never trust AI and always verify - there are no ohs only zeros

 983311045cf0bbf09b9469ed9699585194285494d048a96058e9dd444b33b7ae

https://mempool.space/tx/983311045cf0bbf09b9469ed9699585194285494d048a96058e9dd444b33b7ae

edit: I used a image to text converter and I had the same initial problem of a non-existent tx

Considering where most of the money went, this was almost certainly not an accident.

If you left thousands of bitcoins on a hard drive, mined or received, using Satoshi's Bitcoin client back in 2010, and haven't touched them since, it might be time to reevaluate your risk tolerance in life. You could have easily lost access to these coins.

If you mined them and left them mined, they are considered vulnerable. If you sent them to an address, they're not. (Public keys are vulnerable, not addresses.) And it's still not feasible to reverse public key to private. It's just considered easier than brute forcing an address.

Aren't they all more or less similarly "quantum" vulnerable?
care to provide a reference to such claims (that distinguish between early and late addresses)?
Nevermind..seems as mostly to do with earlier BitcoinJS library vuln.
Maybe "quantum" could just sniff them out easier.

Many pundits give roughly a range of 134K-327K top for this cycle.
See here, for example:
https://coingape.com/bitcoin-price-to-hit-327k-if-this-happens-peter-brandt-predicts/
This guy (P. Brandt) is good, usually.

Here is some quick paper napkin math:

In the prior two cycles we went from 3.2K lows to 15.7K lows.
Assuming similar proportion, next LOW (if extended similarly) could be (15.7/3.2)X15.7=77K.
The proportion of the drop seem to decline slowly cycle to cycle from 94% to 87% to 84% to 77% or thereabout.
Therefore, if the next low would be a next number in the progression aka 70% decline, then the next top (in this cycle) "ought" to be 77/0.3=about 257K, which is approx in the middle (average is $231.5) of the range above.

Not an investment advice.

This is a legit thought.  The ETFs anbd other big money customers are doing OTC trades and might simply buy private keys, perhaps even from people who had loved ones that left them instructions.

All the coins being gobbled into Coinbase storage (not good) have to come from somewhere...

I can tell you with absolute certainty those people do exist.

Though some of us did move coins out of quantum vulnerable early addresses earlier than yesterday.  (and yes I understand it's more complicated than that...)

My bet is this was not moved by the original owner.

Respect!

Your humble servant for example

well better than 88k

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

91

Most likely the person has many wallets and sold from some other wallets before.
In other words-no big deal.

My guess: whoever moved this owns a lot more and sold some before. Never sell everything.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

ORIGINAL POST:
Transaction doesn't exist! The FUD begins!

CORRECTED POST:
ALERT: Transaction DOES EXIST!

https://mempool.space/tx/983311045cf0bbf09b9469ed9699585194285494d048a96058e9dd444b33b7ae

For some reason it didn't appear on mempool.space.. and i noticed there wasn't any comments about it not existing... So i queried my Bitcoin Node and there is was confirmed!

bitcoin-cli getrawtransaction 983311045cf0bbf09b9469ed9699585194285494d048a96058e9dd444b33b7ae
020000007507f03266a3c08263fb15dd7b17ece8a87756353519a66d01....68ed5d92f560bf0f9 32302c5eea0287b8470d00

Never Trust, Always Verify

I thought that Wiwo was referring to the bloodbath on the way up from $69k to $93k, and he was kind of suggesting that the bloodbath might be over or needing a break, which I have my doubts about whether that is really a reasonable presumption.


Even though you seem to believe that you are giving somewhat conservative selling scenarios, you do seem to continuously consider the cash that you can get out of your BTC at various points, and so surely you end up employing even more cash focused harvesting in your own ongoing BTC management strategies, and you end up missing out on loads and loads of compounding value of the BTC over the years.

In other words, way small profits can come out of the BTC in order that over several years, the value that is held in BTC compound way more as compared with if you are continuously overly harvesting various profits and claiming that you are hanging onto sufficient BTC when you aren't. 

It seems to me that if guys consider ways of being way more conservative in their harvesting of dollar profits out of their BTC (perhaps even including you right now), they likely have way better odds of having way more BTC (and compounded profits) to work with later down the road after a cycle or two rather than just thinking year by year and some of the dumbass tax-focused ideas in short terms.


Sometimes (or perhaps frequently in bitcoin) guys need to consider value in terms of compounding rather than simple valuations, and so sometimes with our overall BTC holdings, we have to let some time run and perhaps a halving or  two or something like that rather than fucking around with one or two calendar years or trying to play short-term BTC waves.. so maybe even a guy who spends a whole cycle accumulating bitcoin might want to allow one more cycle to just sit on his investment and largely let it compound, before he starts to fuck around very much with employing various selling formulas.

I am actually not really opposed too much to selling formulas, even if they are employed fairly early on in a guy's bitcoin journey, yet the earlier days of fucking around with selling should largely be token amounts and mostly emphasizing holding overwhelmingly large portions of the BTC.. and.. then perhaps later on after another cycle or so, then maybe a guy can start to become more adventurous with selling larger portions of his BTC stash. to the extent that he even needs to.. since maybe he is able to live well within his budget (or even a much higher standard budget) by spending only 2% to 5% of his stash per year). 


If we have not over invested in bitcoin^**, then we should either be able to tolerate down draws in bitcoin or we just buy more BTC during such down draws.... quite a bit of volatility is already known and inevitable in bitcoin and there are ways to already set ourselves up in advance so that we are financially and psychologically prepared for various down draws, even extreme ones.

**By the way, over invested and over accumulating are different concepts... it is possible to overaccumulate but still not be over invested.


We already know that bitcoin makes BIG moves, and it just seems a bit overly anxious to be wanting to take big chunks of profits out of bitcoin merely because it made a 4x-ish move.

In the end, guys can do what they want, yet it seems to me that there is a time element to long term investing which likely involves not fucking around trying to play waves, but hey whatever guys are going to do what they are going to do.. and surely if a guy had been investing into bitcoin for 4-ish years and continuously investing, then he might have various cost basis in his BTC, and he still has 4-10 years timeline from his latest buys, so I see no reason to get all worked up about wanting to sell and/or take profits... even if a guy has just gotten through most of his accumulation stage... because in those cases, he still is going to likely have purchases that were even made in the last year or two.

And, sure whatever, guys can do what they like, yet when they are playing around trying to time waves, they likely are undermining their own situation and also taking away a lot of the historical compounding power of bitcoin that likely is not going to be ending anytime soon, even if the levels of compounding of BTC are likely not going to be as extreme as they had been in the earliest of years, yet none of us can turn back the clocks either, so we have to work with what we got and whatever bitcoin we were able to accumulate at various price levels during our BTC accumulation journey.


You have not learned, yet, that bitcoin is not a shitcoin?  Holy shit Philip.  You been here more than 12 years and you don't know nuttin?

 


You are not being totally unreasonable, but there still is a time element and there is also a size element, so it seems to be me that you are tending to sell way too much too soon in small timelines.. but whatever, hopefully guys do not get overly anxious in regards to how they manage their BTC holdings whether they are still building them or maybe they are maintaining them.. and even when they get into liquidation, they should be at a state that they can just employ relatively modest withdrawal strategies and spend from their other sources of income prior to spending their bitcoin...but yeah surely bitcoin does allow for a stepping up of living standards especially if it is allowed to compound for a while.


I know someone who did this against my advice around $1,500 in 2017, and sure the person still had several coins and was taking profits several times and at various price points, and there surely are ways to do it and to overly withdraw and still end up with decent amounts of BTC, and bitcoin can be fairly forgiving in some of those kinds of cases, yet sometimes the overwithdrawal does end up catching up to the person.. which ended up being the case with such person that I know.. there is only so much that any of us can do to help a person from themselves.


Exactly. .that is another problem.. since if you followed the rule of investing no more than you can afford to lose, then why the fuck you so worried about getting your principle out? 

It seems to me that there should be other ways of managing those kinds of concerns about your principle being locked up. 

From my own experiences, after a while your BTC stash becomes so many magnitudes larger than your initial investment that it almost becomes like pocket change to take it out.. at some later point..


Exactly.. when you got in and you have been buying BTC nearly like a degenerate and locking in your BTC costs, you already know that you are investing within your budget, so the mere fact that your holdings are 3x or 4x up seems like pretty dumbass inabilities to defer gratification and attempts to play the wave rather than just sticking with your original plan and letting it ride another cycle or so.

Yeah, of course people can do whatever they like and even dumb shit, and I am glad that you are not letting Philip's short term scaredness detouring you from the value of staying the course...which sure many of us get nervous and it can take a decently long time for our BTC holdings to really blossom... and it is not guaranteed to blossom either, so that is why when we were investing, we were not investing with money that we either needed or that we could not afford to lose in terms of going down to zero if that might end up happening.


Even though any asset can go to zero, including bitcoin, comparing what you should do in regards to shitcoins versus what you should do in regards to your bitcoin seem like quite different kinds of fundamentals and there should be some attempts to understand bitcoin fairly well for anyone who has already been in bitcoin for several years to able to figure out that bitcoin is not the same as shitcoins and the reason we invest confidently in bitcoin over long periods might relate to that we are not able to invest confidently in any shitcoins... but some folks seem to continue to mix and convolute bitcoin and shitcoin investment thesis, which truly seems to be a sign of muddled thinking.