Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 24458.

NotLambchop

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 254

Quote from: janos666 on November 19, 2014, 10:26:14 AM

Quote from: justusranvier on November 19, 2014, 10:10:06 AM

Quote

"As part of a civil forfeiture proceeding, Ulbricht and the government in January reached a deal in which the bitcoins on his hardware would be sold, with the proceeds to be held pending the outcome of his case."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/17/us-bitcoin-auction-idUSKCN0J11UJ20141117

This actually means that DPR wants his coins sold at as low of a price as possible.

The money at stake is the prize which the prosecutors are competing for, and to maximize his chance of regaining his freedom he'd want their incentive to be as low as possible.

I never understood how these US Marsals can auction these coins before at least one court officially finds him guilty. Is it normal in the US to sell these kind of assets before the end of your trial?
"Hey, I prooved I am innocent, so I can finally go home ... oh wait, they sold my house and took the money. Well... yeah..." Strange.

There is ugly shit called "civil forfeiture", but this isn't it. Presumably, Ulbricht is entitled to the proceeds of the sale if found innocent.

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: Miz4r on November 19, 2014, 09:50:42 AM

You really think the FBI talked to DPR and discussed with him whether now would be a good time to sell? They sell now because they can, the FBI are no speculators and they certainly didn't ask for DPR's permission first.

Actually they did talk with Ross (not clear on whose initiative) and both agreeed to sell. The FBI still cannot sell those coins on their own, it is not yet decided whether they belong to Ross or to SilkRoad. If they belong to Ross, they would have to wait for the verdict on Ross's trial.

NotLambchop

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 254

Quote from: justusranvier on November 19, 2014, 10:21:59 AM

Quote

So you've already convicted Mr. Dread?
Or is it just poor reading comprehension?

If course it was a typo. I was thinking about your post and Miz4r's post at the same time.

Whether or not Ross is DPR, and whether or not he's committed any crimes, the prosecutors have a very strong financial incentive to convict him.

Their only goal is to convict him(*) - not to determine the truth of his guilt.

Knowing this, Ross should know that minimizing the financial incentive they have to push for his conviction is in his best interests, so he'd want the coins they seized from him to be sold as cheaply as possible.

* Well-known features of the US court system

The aim of the prosecuting attorney is to convict, as it should be. Just as the aim of a defence attorney is to acquit.*

* Well-known features of the US court system

janos666

hero member

Activity: 588

Merit: 500

Quote from: justusranvier on November 19, 2014, 10:10:06 AM

Quote

"As part of a civil forfeiture proceeding, Ulbricht and the government in January reached a deal in which the bitcoins on his hardware would be sold, with the proceeds to be held pending the outcome of his case."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/17/us-bitcoin-auction-idUSKCN0J11UJ20141117

This actually means that DPR wants his coins sold at as low of a price as possible.

The money at stake is the prize which the prosecutors are competing for, and to maximize his chance of regaining his freedom he'd want their incentive to be as low as possible.

I never understood how these US Marsals can auction these coins before at least one court officially finds him guilty. Is it normal in the US to sell these kind of assets before the end of the trial?
"Hey, I prooved I am innocent, so I can finally go home ... oh wait, they sold my house and took the money. Well... I won! Yeah..." Strange.

justusranvier

legendary

Activity: 1400

Merit: 1013

Quote

So you've already convicted Mr. Dread?
Or is it just poor reading comprehension?

If course it was a typo. I was thinking about your post and Miz4r's post at the same time.

Whether or not Ross is DPR, and whether or not he's committed any crimes, the prosecutors have a very strong financial incentive to convict him.

Their only goal is to convict him(*) - not to determine the truth of his guilt.

Knowing this, Ross should know that minimizing the financial incentive they have to push for his conviction is in his best interests, so he'd want the coins they seized from him to be sold as cheaply as possible.

* Well-known features of the US "adversarial" court system

NotLambchop

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 254

Quote from: justusranvier on November 19, 2014, 10:10:06 AM

Quote

"As part of a civil forfeiture proceeding, Ulbricht and the government in January reached a deal in which the bitcoins on his hardware would be sold, with the proceeds to be held pending the outcome of his case."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/17/us-bitcoin-auction-idUSKCN0J11UJ20141117

This actually means that DPR wants his coins sold at as low of a price as possible.

The money at stake is the prize which the prosecutors are competing for, and to maximize his chance of regaining his freedom he'd want their incentive to be as low as possible.

So you've already convicted Mr. Dread?
Or is it just poor reading comprehension?
*You do understand that the value of the seized coin will likely be returned to Ulbricht if he is found innocent?

justusranvier

legendary

Activity: 1400

Merit: 1013

Quote

"As part of a civil forfeiture proceeding, Ulbricht and the government in January reached a deal in which the bitcoins on his hardware would be sold, with the proceeds to be held pending the outcome of his case."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/17/us-bitcoin-auction-idUSKCN0J11UJ20141117

This actually means that Ross wants his coins sold at as low of a price as possible.

The money at stake is the prize which the prosecutors are competing for, and to maximize his chance of regaining his freedom he'd want their incentive to be as low as possible.

jonoiv

hero member

Activity: 966

Merit: 526

🐺Dogs for President🐺

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: jonoiv on November 19, 2014, 09:31:59 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm a Scot, there's noo chance of that Wink

You could have done with a Denis Law last night...

I almost wanted Scotland to make it 2-2, to test to see if England would collapse, but then I thought... naaah

Didn't watch it, more of a cricket man.... But don't tell anyone up here!

I once met a guy from Iceland, said he was into beach volleyball. But I've never heard a Scot say they like cricket Cheesy

hdbuck

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1002

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: jonoiv on November 19, 2014, 09:31:59 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm a Scot, there's noo chance of that Wink

You could have done with a Denis Law last night...

I almost wanted Scotland to make it 2-2, to test to see if England would collapse, but then I thought... naaah

Didn't watch it, more of a cricket man.... But don't tell anyone up here!

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 1823

1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation

NotLambchop

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 254

Quote from: Miz4r on November 19, 2014, 09:50:42 AM

Quote from: Tzupy on November 19, 2014, 09:32:05 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on November 19, 2014, 08:57:34 AM

...Those 180'000 BTC were kept away from the market; and part of them, at least, must have been bought by SR customers on the open market. So Ross was obviously accumulating. I would even guess that he had been holding almost all the bitcoins that he got.
...

That's important, DPR was in accumulation mode during 2013, and if now BOTH him and the US gov believe it's time to cash out, then they both expect much lower prices in the near future.

You really think the FBI talked to DPR and discussed with him whether now would be a good time to sell? They sell now because they can, the FBI are no speculators and they certainly didn't ask for DPR's permission first.

Yes.
Not FBI, but I get what you mean.

"As part of a civil forfeiture proceeding, Ulbricht and the government in January reached a deal in which the bitcoins on his hardware would be sold, with the proceeds to be held pending the outcome of his case."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/17/us-bitcoin-auction-idUSKCN0J11UJ20141117

NotLambchop

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 254

Quote from: oda.krell on November 19, 2014, 09:41:52 AM

Quote from: NotLambchop on November 19, 2014, 09:29:06 AM

Not sure how you got from "two participants [going] on record [with] lowball offers" to anything meaningful. If offers were made @$100 or even $20 per, would the statements be any different?

Lowball offer based on market price means market price times some value < 1.

The lower that value, the more arb profit. The closer that value to 1, the higher the chance you'll get a chance at arb profit.

If you think they submitted a $20 offers, sure, go ahead. I sure would have liked to see the meeting the bank lady had with her superiors afterwards. Cheesy

What wraps it up is that one participant outbid all other participants on all lots. The previous auction converged around market price at the time, that's all I'm saying. I don't care if it was market +5% or market -5%, but my point is, from references to on-exchange market price plus auction mechanics and one winner of all lots, "near market" is a pretty conservative conclusion. Harping on about how it probably went away for a fraction sounds more like wishful thinking to me, tbh.

1. You have offered no justifications for "+-5% market" other than "one bidder won all the lots."
2. How many participants were there?
3. While any offer below market could be correctly termed as "lowball offer," how does this translate to +-5% market?

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Tzupy on November 19, 2014, 09:32:05 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on November 19, 2014, 08:57:34 AM

...Those 180'000 BTC were kept away from the market; and part of them, at least, must have been bought by SR customers on the open market. So Ross was obviously accumulating. I would even guess that he had been holding almost all the bitcoins that he got.
...

That's important, DPR was in accumulation mode during 2013, and if now BOTH him and the US gov believe it's time to cash out, then they both expect much lower prices in the near future.

You really think the FBI talked to DPR and discussed with him whether now would be a good time to sell? They sell now because they can, the FBI are no speculators and they certainly didn't ask for DPR's permission first.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: NotLambchop on November 19, 2014, 09:29:06 AM

Not sure how you got from "two participants [going] on record [with] lowball offers" to anything meaningful. If offers were made @$100 or even $20 per, would the statements be any different?

Lowball offer based on market price means market price times some value < 1.

The lower that value, the more arb profit. The closer that value to 1, the higher the chance you'll get a chance at arb profit.

If you think they submitted a $20 offers, sure, go ahead. I sure would have liked to see the meeting the bank lady had with her superiors afterwards. Cheesy

What wraps it up is that one participant outbid all other participants on all lots. The previous auction converged around market price at the time, that's all I'm saying. I don't care if it was market +5% or market -5%, but my point is, from references to on-exchange market price plus auction mechanics and one winner of all lots, "near market" is a pretty conservative conclusion. Harping on about how it probably went away for a fraction sounds more like wishful thinking to me, tbh.

Omikifuse

legendary

Activity: 1862

Merit: 1009

No big moves during the night.

So boring.

Was expecting something

jonoiv

hero member

Activity: 966

Merit: 526

🐺Dogs for President🐺

Quote from: Tzupy on November 19, 2014, 09:32:05 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on November 19, 2014, 08:57:34 AM

...Those 180'000 BTC were kept away from the market; and part of them, at least, must have been bought by SR customers on the open market. So Ross was obviously accumulating. I would even guess that he had been holding almost all the bitcoins that he got.
...

That's important, DPR was in accumulation mode during 2013, and if now BOTH him and the US gov believe it's time to cash out, then they both expect much lower prices in the near future.

Yer like when UK prime minister expected gold to plumet and sold 70% of the UK's gold reserves only to see it rally to a new all time high.

Or when the Russians signed a gas deal with the Chinese this year only to realise after transportation they would make a loss.

Or when The UK decided not to join the euro when the pound was worth 2 euros only to see the euro almost reach parity with the pound.

Or like when Japan decided to use QE to solve the looming recession only to see 15 years of stagnation followed by another recession now starting.

Governments are cleaver like that.

N12

donator

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1010

I'm sure DPR is as much a speculative genius as our 5th of October 30k "bearwhale", and that he is as well versed in speculation as in the art of safely conducting criminal business (such as browsing the SR admin panel on his laptop in a public library and leaving 144k BTC unencrypted). Cheesy

Tzupy

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1094

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on November 19, 2014, 08:57:34 AM

...Those 180'000 BTC were kept away from the market; and part of them, at least, must have been bought by SR customers on the open market. So Ross was obviously accumulating. I would even guess that he had been holding almost all the bitcoins that he got.
...

That's important, DPR was in accumulation mode during 2013, and if now BOTH him and the US gov believe it's time to cash out, then they both expect much lower prices in the near future.

jonoiv

hero member

Activity: 966

Merit: 526

🐺Dogs for President🐺

Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm a Scot, there's noo chance of that Wink

You could have done with a Denis Law last night...

I almost wanted Scotland to make it 2-2, to test to see if England would collapse, but then I thought... naaah

fabrizio123

full member

Activity: 145

Merit: 100

Quote from: NotLambchop on November 19, 2014, 09:11:02 AM

Quote from: fabrizio123 on November 19, 2014, 09:04:43 AM

Is World bank changing his mind?
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/world-bank-bitcoin-not-ponzi-scheme/

"Trouble started when people began speculating that the value of Bitcoin would rise, thereby raising the demand for Bitcoin and making the value-rise a self-fulfilling prophesy. ... Bitcoin is not a deliberate Ponzi."

If World Bank has ever made claims to the contrary, please cite.

I can't find you're right, i was thinking that they claimed that, anyway a lot of people say that btc is a ponzi scheme, for all of them it should be better to read that article

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 24458. (Read 26713177 times)