Hello!
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 24667. (Read 26713745 times)
November 09, 2014, 09:28:11 AM
^
Hello!
Hello!
November 09, 2014, 09:21:21 AM
Ready for the price adjustment?
Here he is ^^^^
Mr positivity
November 09, 2014, 09:19:47 AM
Ready for the price adjustment?
November 09, 2014, 09:15:16 AM
Wow, look at the ask side LOL
1.1k btc to 382
I will be waiting for it to go down to 350 before I buy but i'm not sure I will even get that opportunity..
1.1k btc to 382
I will be waiting for it to go down to 350 before I buy but i'm not sure I will even get that opportunity..
November 09, 2014, 09:11:47 AM
already 1000 coins to 350
November 09, 2014, 09:09:42 AM
Inverted sunday dump inc
November 09, 2014, 09:04:18 AM
Dance on moonbeams
Slide on rainbows
In furs or blue jeans
You know what I mean...
Slide on rainbows
In furs or blue jeans
You know what I mean...
November 09, 2014, 09:02:22 AM
November 09, 2014, 09:02:10 AM
Really low volume...
November 09, 2014, 09:00:20 AM
November 09, 2014, 08:58:48 AM
$353.29 choo choo
November 09, 2014, 08:58:07 AM
All we have to do is break through the resistance at 360, 370, 380, 390, 395, 400, 410, 420 (blaze it), 430, 440........1100, and then I can miss the opportunity to dump again!
November 09, 2014, 08:57:36 AM
no coins after 2200 left on huobi
November 09, 2014, 08:56:45 AM
$351.93 on Coinbase right now
Cheap coins, grab em!
November 09, 2014, 08:55:28 AM
$351.93 on Coinbase right now
November 09, 2014, 08:54:47 AM
CHOOO CHOOO
November 09, 2014, 08:53:09 AM
look at dat buying pressure on okcoin
November 09, 2014, 08:52:04 AM
Is there any gambling which is just pure chance? Russian Roulette? Most gambling refers to activities which are a combination of luck and skill. Things which are mainly skill are referred to as sport if I'm not mistaken.
November 09, 2014, 08:51:47 AM
Do you consider a competent poker player a "gambler"? If yes, I'm okay with calling the act of trading that as well: both are (risk controlled) finite resource bets on a stochastic process, based on the limited ability to predict future outcomes of that process.
If, on the other hand, a competent poker player is not a gambler, while a trader is, I would like to hear what makes predictions of the 'poker' process different from predictions of the 'market' process. Or, if both of them are gamblers, but neither of them has a chance to be EV+ in your view, then I'd like to see an explanation of why a competent poker player beats an incompetent time after time, (almost) independent of the cards that have been dealt. Been there myself, lost some money in the process
Poker is not a pure game of chance in the same way that a slot machine is a pure game of chance. (I've added enough disclaimers about cheating in prior posts, so mentally insert them where appropriate)If, on the other hand, a competent poker player is not a gambler, while a trader is, I would like to hear what makes predictions of the 'poker' process different from predictions of the 'market' process. Or, if both of them are gamblers, but neither of them has a chance to be EV+ in your view, then I'd like to see an explanation of why a competent poker player beats an incompetent time after time, (almost) independent of the cards that have been dealt. Been there myself, lost some money in the process
I don't know exactly what mechanism makes trading a game of pure chance, but the evidence shows that it must be.
The first way we know is that because if a strategy existed which consistently resulted in EV+, then one single entity could follow it and eventually own the entire market, at which point it's no longer market. Markets continue to exist, therefore no EV+ strategy exists.
The other way we know it's a game of pure chance is because when enough data is collected on the lifetime behavior of all traders, the results are consistent with playing a game of chance, with about the number of outliers one would expect given the sample size (every once in a while 20 random coin flips will come up all heads in a row).
November 09, 2014, 08:50:52 AM
It's a game of skill with an element of chance, which means it's definitely gambling, but the best will get the money in the long-term. I think that could apply to either poker or trading.
That was the point I was trying to make: either 'gambling' is just a way of saying "chance + skill", in which case, it applies to both poker and trading, and I'm okay with that. Or, if 'gambling' is supposed to mean "pure chance" (which is how justusranvier intended it, as far as I can tell), then empirical observations beg to disagree.
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