Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 24668. (Read 26713739 times)

You're making unwarranted assumptions about my background.

I'd prefer if a competent member of this community would put a bit more effort before forming convictions, on the other hand.

Trading works. A trader can be successful, and what is needed, is to be able to anticipate the future. This is the basis of free market capitalism. If you are good at anticipating, you win, if you are bad, you lose. If you consistently lose, you are out out of the game and your capital is transferred to others, who are better. This is how all investing works, and what is to be anticipated, when all is said and done, is the demand for the different consumer goods. If you are good, you take part in forming the capital structure to produce the most consumer goods with the best balance between the different types of consumer goods.

What we the traders and holders do, is to increase the value of bitcoins, therefore we direct capital to the miners, who build the magnificent bitcoin mining network, and to the service companies. We anticipate that this is advantageous for traders of all goods and services, and therefore ultimately advantageous for the consumers.

The method we use to predict, is not important. Charting, fundamentals, logic or feelings, it does not matter any more than the reasons a gene has, when it chooses to mutate into a variant. It doesn't choose, in fact it does nothing consciously, because it has not the capability to think, but still a gene's code  can either adapt and prosper, or die.

Just as with the genes in the nature, you can never declare a final winner. You can declare a tentative winner, by sampling the world's gene pool and find the gene which is most numerous.

In investing, your status is always temporary. You may have a lot of value at a certain point, but the asset that you own, can depreciate. You can sell out, but then you have money, which can still depreciate. And your competitor might in the mean time find a winner asset that appreciate more than your's. That is why capitalists sometimes say, the one who has the most when he dies, wins. But death is also not definitive, because a fortune can outlive one individual, and living a prosperous life in your own psychical understanding of that concept, is also on the scale.

In bitcoin, it is difficult to predict, because it is a fundamentally new thing, and the liquidity on the market is not known. Liquidity here is the ease with which you can sell, or convert to other money or goods. The daytraders or other traders buy and sell, but in the long term they hold, on average, a number of coins which is not changing, and thus does not add real liquidity. You would think that you could easily sell 30K coins over a few weeks, when the daily trade volume is hundreds of thousands of coins. But apparently, that didn't work. The guy with 30K coins might think, when the price was 600, that his wealth was equal to 18 mill USD. But because of low liquidity, he could not convert at that price. Who could have known? Well now we know.

Daytraders could in theory take advantage of the resulting volatility, but they could not know what was in the head of the 30K seller, when and how much he would sell. It is not good enough to know afterwards, you have to know in advance, and I propose that nobody can know the daily variations.

Therefore a daytrader, as opposed to a long time, fundamentalist trader, can not know what he is doing, and his decisions are random, and produce random wins and losses. Now the big point: To be a daytrader, you have to sometimes have fiat, sometimes bitcoin, and sometimes a mix. So when there is a general uptrend, the daytrader is overall only half invested. A long time holder is fully invested. Therefore, a daytrader can not win as much as a holder. In a downtrend he will lose less, but in the long run, we will not have a downtrend. That is the holders prediction.

He buys it out himself to paint a high volume reversal on the charts and to simulate high demand <300, hoping new investors/exited investors will be tempted to come in based on that. If it works, bear markets over, if it doesn't, he puts a bunch of bids on the books with profits from previous sells (and from the actual buys of his 30k ask) to try to pump the price up as much as possible before selling off again and using those proceeds to try again at a lower price.

much dumping on bitfinex.  

cmon bulls, we need more fuel for desperation.

He buys it out himself to paint a high volume reversal on the charts and to simulate high demand <300, hoping new investors/exited investors will be tempted to come in based on that. If it works, bear markets over, if it doesn't, he puts a bunch of bids on the books with profits from previous sells (and from the actual buys of his 30k ask) to try to pump the price up as much as possible before selling off again and using those proceeds to try again at a lower price.

Bearwhale's intention might have been something other than to use it to make a giant ask wall? Maybe it was to dump 1k every time the price rose a little bit.