Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 24671. (Read 26713868 times)

Explanation

Trading works. A trader can be successful, and what is needed, is to be able to anticipate the future. This is the basis of free market capitalism. If you are good at anticipating, you win, if you are bad, you lose. If you consistently lose, you are out out of the game and your capital is transferred to others, who are better. This is how all investing works, and what is to be anticipated, when all is said and done, is the demand for the different consumer goods. If you are good, you take part in forming the capital structure to produce the most consumer goods with the best balance between the different types of consumer goods.

What we the traders and holders do, is to increase the value of bitcoins, therefore we direct capital to the miners, who build the magnificent bitcoin mining network, and to the service companies. We anticipate that this is advantageous for traders of all goods and services, and therefore ultimately advantageous for the consumers.

The method we use to predict, is not important. Charting, fundamentals, logic or feelings, it does not matter any more than the reasons a gene has, when it chooses to mutate into a variant. It doesn't choose, in fact it does nothing consciously, because it has not the capability to think, but still a gene's code  can either adapt and prosper, or die.

Just as with the genes in the nature, you can never declare a final winner. You can declare a tentative winner, by sampling the world's gene pool and find the gene which is most numerous.

In investing, your status is always temporary. You may have a lot of value at a certain point, but the asset that you own, can depreciate. You can sell out, but then you have money, which can still depreciate. And your competitor might in the mean time find a winner asset that appreciate more than your's. That is why capitalists sometimes say, the one who has the most when he dies, wins. But death is also not definitive, because a fortune can outlive one individual, and living a prosperous life in your own psychical understanding of that concept, is also on the scale.

In bitcoin, it is difficult to predict, because it is a fundamentally new thing, and the liquidity on the market is not known. Liquidity here is the ease with which you can sell, or convert to other money or goods. The daytraders or other traders buy and sell, but in the long term they hold, on average, a number of coins which is not changing, and thus does not add real liquidity. You would think that you could easily sell 30K coins over a few weeks, when the daily trade volume is hundreds of thousands of coins. But apparently, that didn't work. The guy with 30K coins might think, when the price was 600, that his wealth was equal to 18 mill USD. But because of low liquidity, he could not convert at that price. Who could have known? Well now we know.

Daytraders could in theory take advantage of the resulting volatility, but they could not know what was in the head of the 30K seller, when and how much he would sell. It is not good enough to know afterwards, you have to know in advance, and I propose that nobody can know the daily variations.

Therefore a daytrader, as opposed to a long time, fundamentalist trader, can not know what he is doing, and his decisions are random, and produce random wins and losses. Now the big point: To be a daytrader, you have to sometimes have fiat, sometimes bitcoin, and sometimes a mix. So when there is a general uptrend, the daytrader is overall only half invested. A long time holder is fully invested. Therefore, a daytrader can not win as much as a holder. In a downtrend he will lose less, but in the long run, we will not have a downtrend. That is the holders prediction.

You know there is a lot of irony when it comes to everyone raving about "buy low, sell high". I mean everyone and their family will EASILY say this and agree to it....but when prices actually start going low (Buy time!) people start selling instead of buying.....it's just ridiculous. Bitcoin has a very bright future and to everyone that keeps selling, when you should be buying, will pay the price secondary to opportunity cost.

Bitcoin's future is bright and you should hop on this ship before it leaves you behind. Otherwise I gaurentee you will be one of those people that will saying to themselves "man I should have just bought when bitcoin was $xxx, how did I not see this coming?".

Explanation

Explanation

How big will be the weekend dump this time?

Back to the 320, maybe?

Or he finished dumping his BTC.
The weekend dump and he both disappeared around the same time...?! Can't be a coincidence! It's critical manipulation!


What I don't like about TA is that I can always set the parameters in reasonable ranges until I get to see exactly what my emotional side wishes me to see.
Right now, the only change I need to administer is switching between 4h and 24h chart intervals depending if I want to open a short or a long position, or choose a different indicator if I wish to sit out this round.

I'd say gambling is a little extreme, not to defend TA, but those Stock Bitcoin traders, they provide a valuable service.
When I started here I saw no value in TA, but I've come to appreciate it's just another tool to be used in conjunction with others.

Or he dumped us. 

Explanation

More likely, he got dumped. 

He finally got busted for operating SR 2.0

Adam's MIA

Why the pooolll still about the Halloween price?

Still, you say trading = gabling even though you know this is not a game against the house (in which case the house could always win - let's forget about the optional 0.x% fee for now) but against a variety of other random players where random means they all have different skill set, mind set, raw intelligence, self control, emotional environment, etc, and ... DATA / INFORMATION (raw / derived):
- gambler traders have raw data: they look at the numbers and randomly decide to place an order
- mathematician traders grab even more raw data (they spend more time to look at more numbers) and derive(d) information (the output of different kind of mathematical analysis of that raw data)

The true gambler's information is the emotional reaction to the raw data. The true mathematician would hang itself before trading against the mathematical prediction regardless of the emotional predictions.
Though there is a wide overlap and most of the traders are somewhere between these two.

I think this is why mathematician traders can theoretically (again: THEORETICALLY) produce positive gain over a long period of time. They have more information. Gamblers keep randomly winning and loosing while mathematicians grab a little bit of their random swaps (just like the exchanges grab their fees).

Please elaborate.

Explanation

You're making unwarranted assumptions about my background.

F*cking shrooms...

Indeed. Southern Brazil is just now feebly coming out of a bad dry spell, with all the dams that supply the São Paulo region already below their official "empty" level.  Allegedly is has to do with El Niño, a quasi-periodic oscillation of winds and ocean currents over the Southern Pacific.  Because of our drought, maize and soybean are up 10% at the Chicago commodities market.