Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 249. (Read 26498425 times)

Yes, this needs to be emphasized more often on this here famous thread, else lurking normies and others may get the wrong idea... perhaps, perhaps??

While nobody here gives a rat's ass about some goofy crypto, let me assure you it will always be a loser's game.

Buy Bitcoin and enjoy real wealth.

Calling Bitcoin "crypto" is like calling people animals. Sure, humans technically are animals but some of us consider ourselves to be above sub-human species.

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By the way, there's a whole sub-forum dedicated to crypto speculation:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=224.0

Ha!  Not to mention his past dealings with ....naaahh!...we won't go there. All the OG's on this forum know anyway.

Explanation
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Do you have any opinion about the various arguments that Giovanni Santostasi makes in regards to bitcoin fitting in a power law curve.  Surely I don't claim to understand it exactly, and he criticizes Plan B for failing to acknowledge that Stock to Flow is a power curve that has been unduly complicated by 4-year cycles... and I don't even really claim to understand Giovanni's criticism of Stock to Flow, though he seems to be arguing that powerlaw curve is more reliable since it gravitates towards a line that is on an upward trajectory that lessens over time.

In fillippone's Power Law thread pointed out a few podcasts in which Giovanni is interviewed.

I've always pointed out the fact it doesn't take derivatives into account.

Just for curiosity sake:

Ben Cowen's no-landing, soft landing and hard landing numerology for bitcoin:

No-landing-turn around any minute/day. All things considered, I would prefer this one.
Soft landing-100wma at 39K (plus minus 2K). This is the one he favors.
Hard landing-400wma (wow!) at 21-23K

https://youtu.be/_zYhccye014?t=722

PlanB is probably not very happy rn and i would say that bitcoin as of today is on a deviation course from all that we knew beforehand as far as cycle timing, cost of production, scarcity (as far as stock to flow is concerned) etc, etc.

I, personally, have a particularly negative opinion about the stock to flow: according to that scheme, we should be valued higher than gold already (15-18 tril), so if we don't reach at least gold valuation in this cycle, stock to flow idea might die as a predicting model, going forward, with, perhaps, liquidity cycles replacing it.

Explanation
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I struggle to appreciate how you could reasonably conclude that I had been writing from a place of "my feelings" rather than substantively responding to your post and also pointing out your own ongoing desires to incessantly pat ur lil selfie on the back.


I already responded to your allegation about me supposedly getting triggered, so I see no reason to address that wishful-thinking strawman allegation again.


It seems to me that you gave enough of a shit to proclaim that you supposedly had been outperforming me in recent times since you supposedly did not lose money or value during bitcoin's recent 30%-ish drop, which even if true seems to be a so fucking what.  Do you think that I or many of the other longer term BTC holders/accumulator guys in this thread give too many shits about some trades that we might be able to make based on short term BTC price changes?  Most likely you are the one that has the burden to at least proclaim that you have beaten 63x returns that you could have had if you had just been DCA buying since May 2013, which surely could have had been and should have had been in your wheelhouse to easily accomplish such a thing, yet I imagine your ongoing fucking around with trading has caused you to underperform simple and straight-forward DCA and BTC accumulation/hodl strategies..

So as I illustrated earlier, if you had DCA invested $100 per week since May 2013, you would have invested $60k-ish and gotten 70-ish BTC (currently $3.8 million) over the past 11-ish years (which would have had been 63x-ish profits), yet alternatively you could have bought 70 BTC in 2013 in various purchases for less than $3,500 and then thereafter, just sat on your hands for the last 11.5-ish years without doing shit, and still had the value of 70 BTC with an investment of $3,500-ish (which would have had been 1,080x returns).  

So, I suppose that I was being overly easy on you by giving you the DCA scenario to beat (the 60x returns) rather than the one-time investment scenario that would have had caused you to even had better returns as long as you did not sell any of it (1,080x returns)... which is part of your problem in putting out posts suggesting that you are smarter than everyone else and you think that selling BTC actually brings you better profits than a more straight-forward buy/accumulate and HODL technique..

In essence, I doubt that you have any evidence that you had been able to achieve better than a pure buying accumulation scenario of BTC portfolio performance over the past 11-13 years by fucking around with trading rather than buying and holding.  You don't even assert that you did.. The ONLY thing that you assert is that you are smarter than everyone else and that you can see where the BTC price is going before it goes there, so therefore guys should either be trading or following your tips...


Let's get to the punchline.  Have you done better than 1,080x returns or not?  alternatively have you done better than 63x returns or not?

Since you are now trying to brag that you have been successful BTC trading ever since the beginning of your forum registration (which is June 2011), then maybe we should show the results of going all the way back to the beginning of your forum registration rather than giving you some benefit of the doubt that you might have had made some mistakes in the beginning, but no, not you.  You did not make any mistakes in the beginning, since you are too perfect to make mistakes, so therefore you have been banging 10s since the beginning of your forum registration. You did not need any kind of a 2-year learning period in order to work out the kinks of making mistakes that mere mortals might need.

So, if we go all the way back to June 1, 2011, we would not even need to have you investing $100 per week, we could lower your weekly investment amount down to $10 per week, and you would have invested $10 per week through that whole time, you would have had invested $6,930 and you would have accumulated 145.82 BTC.  Currently valued at about $7.86 million.  So right around 1,134x in profits..   Use this website to calculate:  https://costavg.com/

Have you done better than 1,134x in profits with your BTC holdings?  Needless-to-say, I have a lot of doubt about you being able to beat any of the various buy and hold strategies, even if we were to give you the lower boundary and easier to meet scenarios, even though you are proclaiming to be so great, wonderful and smart, but even your actions contradict the idea of success since many of us holders are not fucking around with trading, or bragging about it or trying to get others to engage in trading, and yet we have multiples and/or even magnitude levels of profits in our BTC portfolio holdings by merely employing buy and HODL strategies that do not really get into selling in order to buy more BTC at lower prices.. at least guys are not really bragging about those kinds of things here, except you and other traders are proclaiming to have such skills that are better than everyone else.


Now, you are just making up arguments that are mere speculations about facts.  I am not even proclaiming to have superior knowledge than you or anyone else, since DCA can be a way to blindly accumulate bitcoin in a longer term investment style, and without hardly any knowledge of the underlying and perhaps largely just knowledge about how much disposable income a guy has and how much of that disposable income that he is going to want to invest in bitcoin, which would imply either having good cashflow management skills or just building such cashflow management skills along the way, and so DCA tends to be a way to potentially be able to keep accumulating bitcoin over a number of years and holding through the whole process. which I did most of my BTC accumulation between 2014 and 2016.


I think that you are making my point (or part of my point, or something related to my point) that relates to my sustainable withdrawal ideas... and I should not even proclaim that they are my ideas, even though I am attempting to tailor them to BTC's price performance and to suggest that you should be able to withdraw at a higher rate than withdrawal in traditional investments so that in BTC you are able to withdraw something ike 10% per year while in traditional withdrawal systems you can only withdraw 4% per year.

I understand that when you use strict numbers (rather than percentages) of withdrawing 1-3 BTC per year, then it becomes a bit easier to project out how many BTC you have left, or how long it takes to withdraw the whole thing, yet if you are withdrawing a percentage, then you never run out even though your amount continues to shrink and the dollar valuation of the remaining amount has to go  up by more than the amount withdrawn.

So part of my point is that if you reach a quantity of BTC that you know to be enough or more than enough, then you have so much cushion between the amount that you need and the amount that you have.. meaning that the amount that you have exceeds the amount that you need, especially if you also start to withdraw in terms of the dollar amounts that you need, and since many of us theorize that bitcoin is largely going to continue to go up in value higher than the debasement of the dollar and if the dollar debases into infinite numbers then the dollar largely would become irrelevant in such scenarios and bitcoin would have to be valued in terms of something more concrete, whether that would be in terms of gold, or Lamborghinis, our houses or big macs  or some other kind of good or service.


I doubt that my scheme is very elaborate.  It just sounds complicated because we are still getting used to the ideas, but they are not that complicated.  Once you get to a status of over accumulation, you can get started with my withdrawal scheme that is either based on price and/or based on time.


That does not sound right.  Many of us did not get into bitcoin and hang out here for 10 years-ish in order to just sell everything into worthless fiat.  There is no other better place to put our value, apart from bitcoin.


Is that why those guys are not here and abandoned us?


You seem to be speculating a lot and even putting guys into narrow boxes, since each of them could have sold chunks of their BTC stash and still be sitting on the rest of their BTC stash... maybe some desires to stop posting about it... which ends up in quite a bit of repetition and even arguing with folks (other forum members) in repetitious ways.


I think that all I was suggesting that going below the 200-WMA or even going below 20% above the 200-WMA would not necessarily in itself constitute that we would be in a bear market.

We are already in the last month of the 3rd quarter, and I hav e my doubts that you can prescribe that "we should have taken off already."  That seems ridiculous to suggest that we have to strictly stick within the confines of our previous 4-year cycle guidelines in order to stay "on schedule."  Bitcoin is already known for overshooting and undershooting within expected timeframes, and I am not even going to proclaim that I know why it does what it does, yet wrongly concluding that we are in a bear market or a bull market can really end up fucking up the way that you might decide to maintain your holdings.

Remember how cock-sure you were about various BTC prices that were lower than it's $15,479 bottom of 2022?  Sure, I thought that BTC prices were not even going to go as low as they did, but you were acting like a retarded dweeb with you level of confidence that BTC prices were going much lower, even though you weren't willing to enter into some kind of a reasonable bet, so who even knows if you were being genuine in your posturing efforts (or was it talking your book efforts?).  

I am having trouble figuring out what you find so out of touch about my statement in which it seems that I am largely trying to presume that we are in a bull market until we aren't and so yeah, I admit it, I am not sure exactly what would kick us out of our current bull market.. but surely using the 200-WMA as a kind of reference might help to shed light upon the matter.. yet one of the problems with currently relying on the 200-WMA, then maybe if we are dancing around the 200-WMA, then we likely are already bottom territories.

So maybe we have to use the 100-WMA, yet the 200 WMA and the 100 WMA are really close to each other right now, yet the 100 WMA is moving up faster (at about $50 per day) than the 200-WMA (at about $30 per day).  

If you saw earlier, my own criteria for a bear market is if it starts to seem that the odds for down are higher than the odds for up, and yeah, I will admit that I seem to be unable to identify when that has happened until after we are in a downtrend for a considerable amount of time, so so far in my bitcoin history, I have been considerably overly biased towards up.. to a fault.  Maybe i will improve in the future in such a way that I will be able to identify bear markets at an eariier point in time than I had been able to do historically?


Who cares about the crypto market?

And, by the way, what is "crypto" and how does it relate to the topic of this thread?

Explanation
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What the fuck is happening right now in the crypto market in general, is a rollcoaster in this weeks/months.

Here is an alternative theory: bitcoin price decline since 73K predicts a bout of DEFLATION.
Depending on how low it would go, we can ascertain how difficult this deflation would be.

EDIT Some supporting opinion(s): https://youtu.be/nrHEaWjH7WU?t=45

There is an additional test, though, gold would have to start declining as well at some point (and sooner than later).
I don't think gold would be able to keep going up if large parts of the western world would plunge into deflation.

Maybe it is a bit early to predict a deflation episode, but, imho, it is exactly what bitcoin is doing right now.
The following shows what, in my opinion, Jerome did in the last two years:

https://youtu.be/CgTc3cYaLdo?t=270

Lol..so now you are talking we can be still in bull market if we are below 200 WMA end of Q3 / or in Q4 2024... The time frame we should have take off already.
In denial if it happens?

True, but bitcoin does not have to follow your "conditions".
If bitcoin would be 5K (as it was in the spring of 2020), selling 1-2 bitcoins a year makes little difference if you are slightly above average in pay grade.
I would say that any regular selling is erroneous (with a caveat below).
Bitcoin was made to either be VERY valuable or to hold little of that.

So, for most people the solution is to either almost never sell (apart from the elaborate scheme designed by @JJG) OR to sell A LOT (in %) and, basically, leave.
There were a few examples of the latter here (where are the notorious V8 and HairyMclairy, not to mention many others)?
If they are alive, then they sold and are gone from this interest area.
It could be that they got bored, but "sell it and forget it" is so much likelier.

Explanation
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Here is a fact that someone bragging about ALWAYS being right cannot deny.

He was talking about buying btc at 54 (or 54.5), but it was less than 53 today.
This makes the whole braggadocio about "I am always right" out of order.

The universe of chances is ALWAYS bigger than any personal opinion.

I just don’t care about your feelings. At all. In fact, you seem so threatened and triggered when I mention how extremely correct I am constantly, that one of the main reasons I do it now is to get your panties in a bunch. Notice how I don’t give a shit what you do with your coins. I just continue to point out how incredibly accurate and successful I’ve been for 13+ years now because I’ve earned that. If that makes you feel some type of way it’s because you are jealous and that is a female trait. Be a man. Give me my flowers or outperform me. Being wrong continuously and acting like you have some superior knowledge just makes you come off as a fucking retard.

If you have 100 btc at a cost value of 1k each you just sell 2 or 3 a year if you are 67

you have corn till you are 100 or 133.

if you have 100 btc at a cost value of 1k each you just sell 1 or 2 a year if you are 50

you have corn til you are 100 or 150.

my point is if you have 100 btc at a cost value average of 1k a coin  trading is not needed .

you can spend it even if you are 40 and spend 1.5 coins it takes 60 years to spend it all.

Of course there are various ways to calculate parts of your stash to have sub-averages and you can also calculate overall averages of your stash at various points of time too.  .. and yeah if you have portions of your stash in different places, you might create your own formulas in regards to either how to calculate the matters and/or what you consider to be relevant.  

Maybe also in your beginning years, you might not be as concerned about whether or not your stash is in profits or how much it is in profits or in the red, and even if you get to a status of starting to cash out, you might also start to consider other formulas as well.. and even with my own stash, I generally like to consider it as having right around $1k per BTC for its costs, so I can get some general ideas regarding where I am at... yet if I want to drill into analyzing certain sub-parts of my BTC stash, I may well come to differing calculations for that sub-set of my BTC stash.. .. so for example all BTC acquired through x, y and z means.  Or all BTC acquired between January 1, 2016 and June 30, 2019.. or some combination of those categories... There could also be a categorizing all coins accumulated within a certain price range, though it seems to make less sense to characterize all BTC within a certain price range rather than a certain set of dates, even though there could be reasons for categorizing BTC buys in a price-based kind of a way.


People who listened to you...

Oh gawd.  Sometimes you are pathetic with your ego or at least you might have a little bit of a less arrogant way of framing the topic - though you seem to have difficulties being able to help yourself.


I am in denial about what?  Your supposedly being right and being able to foresee the future?

Many guys here are not trading or wanting to get credit for being supposed bitcoin price soothsayers, as you seem to want to be within such guru status.

You are suggesting that smart guys are traders, so they are going to have more BTC as compared to the ones who are largely just buying or perhaps the ones who are just holding after they calculate that they have enough.

Even if you seem to have difficult times appreciating that likely there is a certain value in getting towards a point that you have accumulated enough BTC or more than enough BTC, so that you don't have to try fucking around with selling in order to buy back cheaper when selling to accumulate bitcoin tends to not be a very good practice if your goal might be to accumulate bitcoin.

Buying to accumulate seems to be a more solid strategy, so you can do what you like if you want to sell in order to accumulate, then that is your choice, especially since it may not always work out so well, yet you don''t seems to be the type who is capable of admitting the times that it did not work out so well since you are so busy being perfect all of the time.


First:  I stand corrected for my reading your "second chance" as an opportunity to sell BTC when you were talking about an opportunity to buy BTC, yet I suppose either way, we are still referring to your wanting to tout your supposed trading skills that are not likely to be replicable.

Second: I doubt that I am competing with you, yet sure, maybe I am competing with some of your ideas, especially when it comes to your seeming belief that trading BTC is how you make profits in bitcoin, and even your suggesting that whatever bullshit BTC trading practices that you are promoting are replicable.  It seems that the main way that you are suggesting replicability of the strategy is that guys are supposed to follow what you are doing or to learn whatever supposed guru trading techniques (and tips) that you are suggesting to be straight-forward to make more money than if they had merely just bought and mostly held their BTC.  

There should almost be no reason that a guy in your situation (in terms of when you got into the forum and supposedly bitcoin) should even need to trade BTC if he would have had merely been accumulating BTC all along the way until the point that he got enough and/or more than enough BTC and not fucking around with trying to accumulate BTC through trading rather than the more straight-forward buying of BTC techniques...

And, even if we don't go by your beginning forum registration date in June 2011, and maybe we could suggest that you fucked up and you did not realize the power of bitcoin until nearly 2 years later, so then you got more seriously into bitcoin in May 2013 rather than June 2011, and so even if you had invested $100 per week of bitcoin per week since May 1, 2013, by now, you would have had invested nearly $60k, but you would have 70 BTC.  I don't see why that would be a bad place to be or why you should feel some justification to trade BTC  in order to try to get more of it and at the same time putting your BTC holdings at risk.  So that would be around 60x in profits.  Are you trying to suggest that you did better than 60x in profits with whatever trading bullshit that you have been supposedly practicing over the past 11-13 years?

Third: Regarding my own situation.  I have frequently suggested that in regards to my bitcoin, I had largely gotten to a place in which I feel comfortable that my average cost per BTC largely floats in the ballpark of $1k per BTC, so surely in the November 2021 peak of $69k, I was around 69x in profits, and so when the BTC price dropped down to $15,479, I was ONLY about 15.5x in profits, and so at our most recent ATH of 73,794 in March 2024, I was nearly 74x in profits, and so now my holdings are back down to right around 53.5x in profits.  Do you really believe that someone like me needs to try to trade his BTC holdings when they are greatly in profits in order to try to eek out more juice and put my holdings at risk?

Of course it makes a difference if I were to hold 0.63 BTC, or 5 BTC or 20 BTC or 70 BTC or 200 BTC or 536.45219917 BTC or some other quantity of BTC, since there is a bit of a multiplier affect with more BTC, even though the percentages are the same.

Even if the price performance of your BTC holdings have beat the price performance of my BTC holdings (which I largely doubt based on your own seeming desires to want to gamble.. I mean trade.), do you speculate that your supposed outperformance (if such a thing were to be true?), should influence me to change my strategy, since my current strategy, from your point of view is not good enough?  I get the sense that arrogant stupid-ass wanna know everything gambling personalities like yourself seem unable to acknowledge the overall superiority of a more conservative non-trading approach, especially in something like bitcoin.  

And, yeah it seems a bit difficult to believe that after being in bitcoin space for about 2.5 years longer than me, you still seem to have some troubles recognizing and appreciating the investment angle for bitcoin, and you seem to want to show off as some kind of a wannabe know it all for your supposed trading acumen and your supposed abilities to identify BTC price-moving significant events.. and you want me to instead thank you for your charity and good will for sharing many of your supposed alpha trading insights with unappreciative folks, such as yours truly, participating in this thread..  

Sure, this is a public thread, yet you seem to want to argue about how your vague and always better BTC trading techniques are better than a BTC investment (accumulation and hold) approach, too.

Explanation
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