Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 24918. (Read 26712687 times)

This is accurate. Another possibility is that the strongest remain last. Don't forget though, that when the halving occurs, the mining profits (at these prices) will be a "no go" towards any small or bigger farm. Interesting to see what happens by then though.

8 days left before commenting period for Russian law against Bitcoin.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2k6aiq/20141024_8_days_left_before_commenting_period_for/

odd. We broke that wall at around $350 and now we heading back up?

true, and by the end of the year new or small years might also face the increasing difficulty problem, which might further decrease the number of small miners in the mining competition.

in my noob opinion, all this whale surely be big miner selling cheap coin because their miner already roi and they can sell at any price above electricity and still profit.  why they sell cheap, so that new miner are discouraged and keep them in power literally. this is a race to the fair price, which is their price for bitcoin. as new miner are discouraged they assume that difficulty will soon be lower further increase their profit.

All the charts on blockchain show very steady growth, transactional volume is up 300% since this time last year. Number of transactions is all time high, as is daily wallets used

The last big bubble lifted the price from ~120$ in early Oct/2013 to ~800$ in Jan/2014.  The fall from ~800$ in Jan/2014 to the present ~350$ can only be due to the undoing of that bubble (and to the undoing of the May/2014 "pseudo-bubble").

I cannot see any plausible explanation for the Oct-Nov/2013 bubble other than the opening of the mainland Chinese market.  The undoing of that bubble then must be due to the loss of that market.  According to a few articles, the Chinese bitcoin market consists mainly of amateur and semi-professional speculators who, lacking access to the stock market, were used to day-trading other bizarre commodities.

So, if those traders pull completely out of the market, the May/2014 pseudo-bubble is completely undone, and no new market opens, the price should eventually go back to ~120$.

Draw a straight line on the Bitstamp price chart, in log scale, from the prices at Jan/2014 (~800$) and at May 19, 2014 (~400$). Extrapolation of that line suggests that the price (minus the May pseudo-bubble) will reach ~120$ by the end of the year.

I suspect that the Chinese were responsible also for the Jan-Apr/2013 bubble, that lifted the price from ~12$ to ~120$.  Specifically, the start of that bubble seems to coincide with the hiring of Bobby Lee by BTC-China in Shanghai.  In that case, if that market closes too, so that the Jan-Apr/2013 bubble gets undone, the price could go down again to 10--20$.

Needless to say, these extrapolations will be moot if another market opens (COIN? Argentina? Africa?).

If we look at previous bubbles, after a month or two of roughly exponential growth, and another month or so of oscillations, the price usually settled down to a nearly constant value.  I take that as a sign that the markets responsible for those bubbles were saturated and stopped growing.  Maybe they started to grow again this year, but I have not seen any real evidence of that.  (Neither the number of stores that "acecpt bitcoin", nor the blockchain traffic, nor the venture capital investments imply growth of any market.)

Please state your understanding of what is going on, then.

I do not know where to get reliable data on bitcoin usage.

So buy 20,000 btc @ $390 = $7.8m

open short positions on 20,000 btc

Sell 5000 btc, cause price drop x 10%

Profit = 2000 btc? $780,000

Your loss on the 5000 btc = 10% $195,000

Total profit = $585k

Am I bein a tard here or is it really that simple to short stuff