Bitcoin's attraction to informal fallacies reminds me of numerous pseudosciences. Some of the most insightful articles I've read about Bitcoin highlight the community's cultish attitude.
I may know what articles you are alluding to. Or maybe I don't.
Jorge, you are looking at this in the wrong light. Cults and pseudosciences can persist through almost any obstacle. In fact, obstacles typically embolden the followers.
Thus, Bitcoin may survive and thrive for quite a while longer. For all the wrong reasons of course.
Good insight... I believe that there is a chance that the blockchain will be maintained for the next hundred years, if only as a fun challenge.
It obviously has been, until now. Will it continue to be?
I wouldn't say that it is a good investment, but it is certainly a great gambling game.
I believe that the price will drop to zero eventually, but won't dare to guess what it will be one hour from now. I think I understand a bit about the market now, but not not enough to predict the price.
For instance, I bet that the Esteemed Colleague who predicted "10$ by mid 2014" was not quite aware of the situation in China. In my view, the Chinese traders may continue their gambling for many months still, and the price may wander between 300$ (or less) to 1200$ (or more), depending mainly on their mood.
Some of the above comments are seeming somewhat bullish, especially coming from a bearish troll like you (even though you have been claiming neutrality).
For example, suggesting some day it will be zero and that the block chain will likely last for 100 years.... It is doubtful that anyone here is investing in BTC beyond 5 years, anyhow... surely we account for the long term prosperity and we account that we may need to reassess our BTC investment in a few years, but when push comes to shove, only a few people would just set any such volatile investment for more than 5 years without reassessing it from time to time.
After so many months of looking at bitcoin and making various analyses, you are likely converting bullish, but you do NOT want to admit it. You likely understand and realize that as time passes, and the fundamentals do NOT really get undermined in any meaningful way, the odds become greater and greater and greater that the price is going to skyrocket upward rather than to crash downward.. and even you seem to be implying the possibility of 3x returns... which is fairly decent for any investment.
Of course, the passage of time will tell the direction of BTC prices and whether Jorge ever buys a bitcoin.