Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26012. (Read 26609134 times)
September 02, 2014, 05:54:19 AM
Don't drink and trade.
September 02, 2014, 05:53:47 AM
Fear not, Openbazaar is alive and kicking.
As i strongly believe price is correlated to number of transactions (which is different from plain adoption/number of wallets) i think in the near future (months) we will be able to see metcalfe's law applied to bitcoin in his newly born habitat.
Actually bitcoins are mostly held or traded intra exchange, neither of those is good for the health of the network, it's like a brain without neurotransmitters--->no thoughts-->mostly useless and easily manipulated.
As i strongly believe price is correlated to number of transactions (which is different from plain adoption/number of wallets) i think in the near future (months) we will be able to see metcalfe's law applied to bitcoin in his newly born habitat.
Actually bitcoins are mostly held or traded intra exchange, neither of those is good for the health of the network, it's like a brain without neurotransmitters--->no thoughts-->mostly useless and easily manipulated.
More than 90% of the transaction volume (transaction count and total BTC output) on the blockchain is "fake" -- that is, between addresses with the same owner.
Prove that this statement is wrong.
(Evidence that it is correct: the way it has changed with time for the past year.)
September 02, 2014, 05:48:51 AM
This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.
I think we are losing adoption NOW. User numbers don't seem to be rising at all, and the main complaint is losing money on their investment. I literally know no one else who owns coins anymore. This manufactured drop from $600 is killing the tech. (Tes, exchange rates matter, trolls.)
Note that game theory says the price will trend to zero. As long as there are hundreds of people with enough coins to play the dump game, one of them will continue doing it to make their extra 20 or 30 coins per day. If you gave me 3k btc today, I could guarantee I would have 6k in 90 days. The game is too easy.
Those posters who say that the only people who care about the price (exchange rate) are get rich quick dreamers are deluded. If I could buy a laptop with 2 bitcoins 3 months ago, but now need to use 3 btc, there is a serious problem. And as long as 99.9% of goods require USD to purchase, the exchange rate is important.
I left out one point before: look at how much concentrated effort it took to break through support at 500. Thousands and thousands and thousands of coins dumped to break support and make the dump game possible again. How many of the big guys had to help to break through? I sincerely thought it was impossible to reach 490...forgetting that there are single individuals with 50k coins who could wipe out the entire order book.
Now, explain to me how it is possible to have another bubble. It will be a race to see who can dump fastest and hardest to make the biggest percentage gain on a thin order book. IIRC, to cut the price 40% in November only took a 1k dump; stops triggered, margins called, panic selling, huge profit with no risk. They won't be able to control themselves when the opportunity arises next time .
I will say this with all honesty: I no longer believe btc has any chance of being a serious currency due to its users. I have always been a short term agnostic and long term bull. I am full bear now. I doubt that we will ever see 700 again, and 300's will be here soon. The big guys are warning everyone everyday that they want lower prices. Believe them.
The whole of this comment is so stupid that it is NOT worth responding to in a detailed manner, and really the comment reeks of someone who is talking his/her book. If you do NOT believe in bitcoin anymore, then why don't you just sell all of it, and just walk away with whatever fiat you have remaining. GOOD BYE. Instead, no you are likely going to continue to stay here and talk your bullshit until such point that you will say that you bought back in.... possibly with more coins.. but if you get left by the choo choo, that would be even better carma to reward you for your apparently deceitful presentation.
Regarding the bold session above, good luck doubling your coins every 90 days or guaranteeing such. I am pretty sure that you would NOT put your money where your mouth is b/c if you were to make such a bet that you can double your BTC stash in 90 days, the odds are pretty great that you would lose such a bet.
2nd step of loss and grief: anger
Identify the anger? Where is it?
We spotted you doing this, man.
September 02, 2014, 05:46:02 AM
This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.
I think we are losing adoption NOW. User numbers don't seem to be rising at all, and the main complaint is losing money on their investment. I literally know no one else who owns coins anymore. This manufactured drop from $600 is killing the tech. (Tes, exchange rates matter, trolls.)
Note that game theory says the price will trend to zero. As long as there are hundreds of people with enough coins to play the dump game, one of them will continue doing it to make their extra 20 or 30 coins per day. If you gave me 3k btc today, I could guarantee I would have 6k in 90 days. The game is too easy.
Those posters who say that the only people who care about the price (exchange rate) are get rich quick dreamers are deluded. If I could buy a laptop with 2 bitcoins 3 months ago, but now need to use 3 btc, there is a serious problem. And as long as 99.9% of goods require USD to purchase, the exchange rate is important.
I left out one point before: look at how much concentrated effort it took to break through support at 500. Thousands and thousands and thousands of coins dumped to break support and make the dump game possible again. How many of the big guys had to help to break through? I sincerely thought it was impossible to reach 490...forgetting that there are single individuals with 50k coins who could wipe out the entire order book.
Now, explain to me how it is possible to have another bubble. It will be a race to see who can dump fastest and hardest to make the biggest percentage gain on a thin order book. IIRC, to cut the price 40% in November only took a 1k dump; stops triggered, margins called, panic selling, huge profit with no risk. They won't be able to control themselves when the opportunity arises next time .
I will say this with all honesty: I no longer believe btc has any chance of being a serious currency due to its users. I have always been a short term agnostic and long term bull. I am full bear now. I doubt that we will ever see 700 again, and 300's will be here soon. The big guys are warning everyone everyday that they want lower prices. Believe them.
The whole of this comment is so stupid that it is NOT worth responding to in a detailed manner, and really the comment reeks of someone who is talking his/her book. If you do NOT believe in bitcoin anymore, then why don't you just sell all of it, and just walk away with whatever fiat you have remaining. GOOD BYE. Instead, no you are likely going to continue to stay here and talk your bullshit until such point that you will say that you bought back in.... possibly with more coins.. but if you get left by the choo choo, that would be even better carma to reward you for your apparently deceitful presentation.
Regarding the bold session above, good luck doubling your coins every 90 days or guaranteeing such. I am pretty sure that you would NOT put your money where your mouth is b/c if you were to make such a bet that you can double your BTC stash in 90 days, the odds are pretty great that you would lose such a bet.
2nd step of loss and grief: anger
Identify the anger? Where is it?
September 02, 2014, 05:45:26 AM
Let's say we get to 500, first, there champ.1 BTC = 100,000 $ when
5-10 years-ish.. maybe closer to 10 years at the rate this seems to have been going, recently.
September 02, 2014, 05:40:31 AM
1 BTC = 100,000 $ when
5-10 years-ish.. maybe closer to 10 years at the rate this seems to have been going, recently.
September 02, 2014, 05:36:54 AM
i guess someone bought his own asks just to keep us involved
lol, you think someone is that fool and give free commission.
There was big order and it was eaten by others.
well then there were no fake walls and people with ~ 2000btc just got out
I think 500 btc might have been pulled. 3 orders were static, one order of 500 or 600 coins was being flashed at different prices every few minutes. I did not see it get bought.
Remember, there were at least 3 attempts to break 500 before it succeeded, and then we fell to 470. He sold coins expecting to buy them back at 430. 40USD drop...that will be roughly an 8% increase in coins in 24-48 hours if the pattern holds.
Good luck with that. I am pretty doubtful, and maybe give less than 10% odds of $430 in 48 hours.
September 02, 2014, 05:36:43 AM
This rally looks like it is ready to wilt. The wild card... and why trading with Bitcoin is such a nightmare is because there are too many atypical wild cards... BFX is about to run out of supply for shorts. This means that there is no countervailing force and the existing shorts could get squeezed out in the process.
September 02, 2014, 05:35:09 AM
Nobody talking Bitcoin means we are moving steadily towards capitulation. Maybe MasterLuc's prophecy is not a bad call. Be patient if you believe in this technology. Scream if you are just a speculator. Troll if you are a troll.
For me, it cannot become silent enough for Bitcoin. Eventually, the tide will change.
For me, it cannot become silent enough for Bitcoin. Eventually, the tide will change.
+1,000,000
September 02, 2014, 05:32:05 AM
I do mind however the sometimes rather aggressive "anti trading" sentiment in here.
Where. On. Fuckin. Earth? should trading / price discovery / speculation be discussed if not on the Speculation subforum?
Where. On. Fuckin. Earth? should trading / price discovery / speculation be discussed if not on the Speculation subforum?
That's nothing different from other things. People have their firm opinion about one thing and another thing. Inconsistency does not matter there. Most people are not open minded enough for thought provoking impulses.
btw. RSI divergence.
September 02, 2014, 05:28:48 AM
This market is completely fucked. Right now we are simply watching it getting it destroyed. Bitcoin is becoming worthless.
Nobody around me talks about it anymore let alone considers investing in it.
What sane person would put money in a market where he is guaranteed to get dumped on the next day?
The dumpers are destroying the market. It's that simple.
They will keep doing it till we can't go lower anymore. Only then are they happy and will move on.
Nobody around me talks about it anymore let alone considers investing in it.
What sane person would put money in a market where he is guaranteed to get dumped on the next day?
The dumpers are destroying the market. It's that simple.
They will keep doing it till we can't go lower anymore. Only then are they happy and will move on.
exactly. it is really weird that the usmarshall service had a better understanding of timing an auction than most (?) of us in this forum. different to the "the auction will bring prices down to 250" screamers, a good part of the speculation subforum was bullish, even short term. now, that prices went down anyway will make every possible investor careful to just wait a little bit longer to see if it goes down even more. no one wants to pull another draper stunt.
i guess we just have to wait for the final final final capitulation. i am really tired of this. 2014 rally... damned...
I kind of suspect it'll take even a bit longer before that sentiment really sinks in.
I remember, late last year in masterluc's thread, I was arguing that the next ATH couldn't reasonably be further away than a year. Because: history.
Took me a while to get that idea out of my head for good - which, by the way, doesn't mean I think Bitcoin is doomed. Just that naive extrapolations like "we had a growth spurt every X months, so the next one must be right around the corner" are dangerous to your mental health (and profits, if you trade).
Here's another thought: we keep referring back to 2011/2012 as the "bad years" for price. The argument is usually made that, no way we're going through such a period of (relative) drought again because this time: investments! public interest! everything is different!
Which is true, of course. But that's the reason why price is around $500 now, and not $5.
So I see a chance at least that we will look back on 2014, maybe even 2015, and think of those years as the "really bad years" in the future, not 2011/2012.
(note please, I said: "I see a chance", not "I'm sure that's what's going to happen.)
September 02, 2014, 05:26:59 AM
Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day 
Toss in the 3-handles as well... we are only about 30 to 40 off from setting off margins. If even that much.
after that buy on bitfinex, I remain more or less positive that the large holders are milking people out.. and that leaves great buying opportunities for large money...look for no slippage...and I don't mean etf's gabi etc.. just people who buy on exchange with the extra fiat they feel is worth risking for this revolutionary idea.
I was thinking that for a while, as well... but look at the 4-hour chart. It be scary.
essentially that is the point.. they succeed when people panic sell purely because they're trying to speculate and have no clue what they're doing. China's ban fest really started the selling signals way back in Dec. bulls are still feeling bearish after that rape fest.. believing our pure optimism could out weigh Chinese panic lol...however plan and weigh the chances of as many probabilities as you can.
September 02, 2014, 05:24:30 AM
Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day
Toss in the 3-handles as well... we are only about 30 to 40 off from setting off margins. If even that much.
after that buy on bitfinex, I remain more or less positive that the large holders are milking people out.. and that leaves great buying opportunities for large money...look for no slippage...and I don't mean etf's gabi etc.. just people who buy on exchange with the extra fiat they feel is worth risking for this revolutionary idea.
I was thinking that for a while, as well... but look at the 4-hour chart. It be scary.
more crash incoming
50-50... only the Junta knows. We either clear 480 and 2950 convincingly... or we careen back down. I should just flip a coin.
September 02, 2014, 05:22:50 AM
Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day
Toss in the 3-handles as well... we are only about 30 to 40 off from setting off margins. If even that much.
after that buy on bitfinex, I remain more or less positive that the large holders are milking people out.. and that leaves great buying opportunities for large money...look for no slippage...and I don't mean etf's gabi etc.. just people who buy on exchange with the extra fiat they feel is worth risking for this revolutionary idea.
I was thinking that for a while, as well... but look at the 4-hour chart. It be scary.
more crash incoming
September 02, 2014, 05:21:27 AM
Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day
Toss in the 3-handles as well... we are only about 30 to 40 off from setting off margins. If even that much.
after that buy on bitfinex, I remain more or less positive that the large holders are milking people out.. and that leaves great buying opportunities for large money...look for no slippage...and I don't mean etf's gabi etc.. just people who buy on exchange with the extra fiat they feel is worth risking for this revolutionary idea.
I was thinking that for a while, as well... but look at the 4-hour chart. It be scary.
September 02, 2014, 05:19:43 AM
Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day
Toss in the 3-handles as well... we are only about 30 to 40 off from setting off margins. If even that much.
after that buy on bitfinex, I remain more or less positive that the large holders are milking people out.. and that leaves great buying opportunities for large money...look for no slippage...and I don't mean etf's gabi etc.. just people who buy on exchange with the extra fiat they feel is worth risking for this revolutionary idea.
September 02, 2014, 05:14:16 AM
Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day
Toss in the 3-handles as well... we are only about 30 to 40 off from setting off margins. If even that much.
September 02, 2014, 05:12:12 AM
This market is completely fucked. Right now we are simply watching it getting it destroyed. Bitcoin is becoming worthless.
Nobody around me talks about it anymore let alone considers investing in it.
What sane person would put money in a market where he is guaranteed to get dumped on the next day?
The dumpers are destroying the market. It's that simple.
They will keep doing it till we can't go lower anymore. Only then are they happy and will move on.
Nobody around me talks about it anymore let alone considers investing in it.
What sane person would put money in a market where he is guaranteed to get dumped on the next day?
The dumpers are destroying the market. It's that simple.
They will keep doing it till we can't go lower anymore. Only then are they happy and will move on.
exactly. it is really weird that the usmarshall service had a better understanding of timing an auction than most (?) of us in this forum. different to the "the auction will bring prices down to 250" screamers, a good part of the speculation subforum was bullish, even short term. now, that prices went down anyway will make every possible investor careful to just wait a little bit longer to see if it goes down even more. no one wants to pull another draper stunt.
i guess we just have to wait for the final final final capitulation. i am really tired of this. 2014 rally... damned...
September 02, 2014, 05:11:44 AM
Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day
September 02, 2014, 05:10:46 AM
Always wondered why hodlers hang out in speculation.. makes no sense. What do they care, they will never participate in price discovery.
Truly remarkable question! Why would one who owns Apple or Microsoft stocks for 20 years would hang out in a speculation forum of WallSt. regulars... Makes no sense! What do they care, they will never participate in price discovery.
It's been fun meeting you esse83. Time to get some sleep though... not that there would be any difference from being awake with my IQ rating...
Because the wealth increase of Bitcoin thus far makes it at least possible for the investment to be life changing in the short term. People like to keep an eye on that, even if they themselves don't trade.
(mini necro, because it's a topic I've been wondering about myself)
(also, more or less just piggybacking on your post, not addressing you directly in the following rant...)
I don't mind (and understand) "holders" frequenting the speculation forum. I don't mind (and understand) them posting. I get why they're rallying together in a downtrend - it's a nightmare of its own to see your account value (as measured in USD) melt away day by day.
I do mind however the sometimes rather aggressive "anti trading" sentiment in here.
Where. On. Fuckin. Earth? should trading / price discovery / speculation be discussed if not on the Speculation subforum?
Don't trade, but hold on to those coins - absolutely fine by me. But if you constantly feel the need to tell traders who post here that they are in reality "tarders", and need to stop their idiotic ways, then you're no better than trolls like fallling and their ilk.
/rant
This. It makes no sense why people are getting attacked when they are trying to collect thoughts from others so that they can hold some money... sometimes those thoughts are positive and sometimes they are negative. It isn't like they are claiming that the U.N. Security Council has agreed to wage a defense mission against Bitcoin. For f---s sakes.
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