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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26026. (Read 26609633 times)

hero member
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Weak minds are incapable of vision, conviction.  Weak minds connect to weak hands.  Thus does wealth gravitate to those who are able to form sound conclusions and retain them in the face of an onslaught of deceit.  With strong hands we scale the mountains of adversity.

Good words.  But legend tells that a King once consulted a famous Oracle about waging war to a rival, and the Oracle had a vision of him destroying a great kingdom.  So the King went all confident to war, and the Oracle was soon proved right -- only with the wrong kingdom, of course.
legendary
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Some people think Bitcoin is indestructible, when it is not. In fact, it is very fragile.
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-really-fragile-bitcoin-core-developer-mike-hearn/2014/09/01
legendary
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legendary
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my theory is that ww3 is short-term bearish, long-term bullish

We're on ww4 now.
legendary
Activity: 1078
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my theory is that ww3 is short-term bearish, long-term bullish
For whom or what? Bitcoin?

This being the bitcoin price movement tracking and discussion thread, that was my intention, yes.

Russia has gradually escalated the invasion of the Donbass to the point (estimated 3 to 5 thousand uniformed) where the Ukrainian government considers it an outright invasion.  European governments (except for Honnecker Merkel) agree. Europe has a backbone composed of over-cooked pasta, but they do remember Hitler, and the parallels to Putin are pervasive, profound, and indicative. I am wishing that I did not have so much New York travel planned, at this point:  A pre-emptive strike by Putin against the allied west is the likely end of any military escalation track.  I should acquire an off-shore life insurance policy in case my domestic one should prove unsuited to the circumstances of my death.

All of this, I consider bearish in the short-term, on risk-aversion, and bullish in the long-term on the fundamental technical capability of crypto to provide value storage and liquidity transfer when other systems break down.



Is this you or the Monkey talking? I do not agree tbh I do not see Putin=Hitler and I do not see a pre-emptive strike from Russia, certainly not a direct overt one.. jesus christ the implications of that are profound...  I can imagine a big bang somewhere.... followed by a game of whodunit... followed by more actions.... which could then lead to mayhem... but a direct overt attack , pre-emptive from Russia... phew... that is the stuff of nightmares... as it could not be a slight attack, it would have to be an end game attack, and well M.A.D comes to mind...  unthinkable... world as we know it done... dusted... game over, fuck Bitcoin if that happens...  unless it is so surgical that it would boggle the realms of what is possible..

Far more likely a catalyst is needed, or rather an instigation, and then what exactly would pre-emptive mean anymore? or do you propose that Ukraine is already that catalyst? or are you talking escalation of military build up from US in places like Poland etc antagonising Putin? and/or possible future NATO involvement?  kicking Russia out of G8 etc as ways of antagonising Putin into a pre-emptive attack?   or do you see a bit by bit escalation with "unintended" consequences? or do you really see Putin as having desires to rebuild the USSR, and as a force that needs to be stopped? as opposed to being antagonised into action?



(edit: yes I do not want to believe it could happen)

(edit: maybe I am blind though... I wonder what is your train of thought? do you really see it escalating to that point "absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event––like a new Pearl Harbor"  http://www.webcitation.org/5e3est5lT link to REBUILDING AMERICA’S DEFENSES Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century )

or should that be "absent some another catastrophic and catalyzing event––like a new Pearl Harbor 9/11" ?
full member
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Colletrix - Bridging the Physical and Virtual Worl
i have to agree that the red baiting is ridiculous. it is trivial to see which country is bent on geopolitical domination. it seems also clear that it shall fail, and go broke in the attempt.
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playing pasta and eating mandolinos
This being the bitcoin price movement tracking and discussion thread, that was my intention, yes.

Russia has gradually escalated the invasion of the Donbass to the point (estimated 3 to 5 thousand uniformed) where the Ukrainian government considers it an outright invasion.  European governments (except for Honnecker Merkel) agree. Europe has a backbone composed of over-cooked pasta, but they do remember Hitler, and the parallels to Putin are pervasive, profound, and indicative. I am wishing that I did not have so much New York travel planned, at this point:  A pre-emptive strike by Putin against the allied west is the likely end of any escalation.  I should acquire an off-shore life insurance policy in case my domestic one should prove unsuited to the circumstances of my death.

All of this, I consider bearish in the short-term, on risk-aversion, and bullish in the long-term on the fundamental technical capability of crypto to provide value storage and liquidity transfer when other systems break down.



You are very wrong. USD is about to being dropped as a reserve currency in international trades (among nation-states).
This has serious implications for the US economy, because it is just an house of cards. They are a vampire economy. I'm sorry but that is what it is.

The people that run the USG at the moment want to trigger a war somewhere, to gain a few years of time.
Meanwhile the rest of the world, including the EU and Russia, just do not give a fuck. They will not be tricked in a war.
The US media (and UK, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia) are doing their worst to scare their inhabitants into docile fear. But, well, there is the INTERNET.
There will be no war because the american public is not receptive to the idea, even if a casus belli is fabricated. You'll see.
There is no 'allied west'. Its a jungle out there. There are only power relations.

Of course this is bullish for bitcoin Smiley
hero member
Activity: 910
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So just jumped back into mining, here is a rough breakdown per TH/s:  (my electricity costs ($0.08/kWh)
Cost $2.18 per day; income @ $480/BTC = $8.80. (I.e. I am paid to heat my house this winter.)

Does that cost include the hardware cost?  (I note that 365.25*(8.80 - 2.18) = 2418 $/year/TH/s, correct?)

Quote
So no drop in hash predicted, and if the price drops to my marginal cost we may see old hardware from mining farmers go offline, which will be good for decentralization.

Why? I would think that the bigger farms are able to keep their equipment more up-to-date than small miners, and threfore have better efficiency.  Is it the other way around?
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
my theory is that ww3 is short-term bearish, long-term bullish
For whom or what? Bitcoin?

This being the bitcoin price movement tracking and discussion thread, that was my intention, yes.

Russia has gradually escalated the invasion of the Donbass to the point (estimated 3 to 5 thousand uniformed) where the Ukrainian government considers it an outright invasion.  European governments (except for Honnecker Merkel) agree. Europe has a backbone composed of over-cooked pasta, but they do remember Hitler, and the parallels to Putin are pervasive, profound, and indicative. I am wishing that I did not have so much New York travel planned, at this point:  A pre-emptive strike by Putin against the allied west is the likely end of any military escalation track.  I should acquire an off-shore life insurance policy in case my domestic one should prove unsuited to the circumstances of my death.

All of this, I consider bearish in the short-term, on risk-aversion, and bullish in the long-term on the fundamental technical capability of crypto to provide value storage and liquidity transfer when other systems break down.

legendary
Activity: 4200
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You're never too old to think young.
we may see old hardware from mining farmers go offline, which will be good for decentralization.

In addition, there should be many small independent miners in the northern hemisphere (myself included) pulling their outdated mining rigs out of the mothballs in time for the heating season.

This should also be good for decentralization.
full member
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Colletrix - Bridging the Physical and Virtual Worl
my theory is that ww3 is short-term bearish, long-term bullish

For whom or what? Bitcoin?

i take it he means that ww3 not going to happen anytime soon, but eventual breakdown of current world order is more than likely.
full member
Activity: 154
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playing pasta and eating mandolinos
Wrong. The hashrate has decreased in the past ... if you cared to take a look and can read a plot.

I saw it stagnate at the last reward halving, maybe I did not look far back enough?

It self-regulate. If mining is unprofitable people stop mining, hash rate drop and mining became profitable again. If prices remain at these levels hash rate MUST drop, unless vast majority of hash power is controlled by entities that have no economic interests in mining per se.

So just jumped back into mining, here is a rough breakdown per TH/s:  (my electricity costs ($0.08/kWh)
Cost $2.18 per day; income @ $480/BTC = $8.80. (I.e. I am paid to heat my house this winter.)
So one of 3 things are going to happen next.

The price will fall to or below marginal cost of production.
Or
The hashing rate will increase until infrastructure grows to meet marginal cost of production.
Or
A combination of the above.

So no drop in hash predicted, and if the price drops to my marginal cost we may see old hardware from mining farmers go offline, which will be good for decentralization.


About your situation: if the hash rate keep going up then you will have to replace your hardware with a more efficient one in 3 months.
This is quite an addition to the cost of mining, that one must factor in. So, even if you have very cheap energy and very efficient hardware you still can't be on positive cash flow for the next 3 month, let alone recover the initial investment in the hardware. Correct?
legendary
Activity: 2380
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legendary
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Wrong. The hashrate has decreased in the past ... if you cared to take a look and can read a plot.

I saw it stagnate at the last reward halving, maybe I did not look far back enough?

It self-regulate. If mining is unprofitable people stop mining, hash rate drop and mining became profitable again. If prices remain at these levels hash rate MUST drop, unless vast majority of hash power is controlled by entities that have no economic interests in mining per se.

So just jumped back into mining, here is a rough breakdown per TH/s:  (my electricity costs ($0.08/kWh)
Cost $2.18 per day; income @ $480/BTC = $8.80. (I.e. I am paid to heat my house this winter.)
So one of 3 things are going to happen next.

The price will fall to or below marginal cost of production.
Or
The hashing rate will increase until infrastructure grows to meet marginal cost of production.
Or
A combination of the above.

So no drop in hash predicted, and if the price drops to my marginal cost we may see old hardware from mining farmers go offline, which will be good for decentralization.

legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125

Getting articles from wsj is pretty simple. In a anonymous browser (e.g. Chrome incognito) paste the exact title into google and open the wsj link directly from there. Then you'll be able to read the article.
legendary
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[Suspicious link removed]jj.com/articles/fbi-probes-possible-computer-hacking-incident-at-j-p-morgan-1409168480

If you look the video here, notice how they stress about the possibilities of 'frauds'. Notice also that in the article at that url they stress that EU banks too have been attacked. They also do allegations about Russia being behind it.

But why?
Because the USG is desperate to keep EU on their side, and are looking to cover the upcoming financial shenanigans in their country.


Edit:
This apparently innocent sentence can be found at the end of the article:
"The threshold for a military response is either massive economic harm or potential loss of life, he said."

Yeah I noticed the anti russian rhetoric,  hard not to , not just in this piece.

Edit: not sure what is up with that link.

legendary
Activity: 1078
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Edit: not sure what is up with that link... I clicked it oppps... (no problem for me though)

The FBI is investigating a possible computer-hacking attack on J.P. Morgan & Co., in what people familiar with the situation described as a highly serious breach of corporate computer security. WSJ's Emily Glazer joins Simon Constable on the News Hub with more on this.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation is probing a computer-hacking attack on J.P. Morgan Chase JPM +0.49% & Co. and as many as four other banks, in what people familiar with the probe described as a significant breach of corporate computer security.

The timing and extent of the hacking attacks weren't immediately clear, though cybersecurity experts began probing the possible J.P. Morgan breach earlier this month, according to people familiar with the investigation.

J.P. Morgan said Thursday morning it isn't seeing "unusual fraud" and it is working closely with law enforcement to determine the scope of the attack. The largest U.S. bank by assets added that it is taking "additional steps" to safeguard sensitive or confidential information and will contact relevant parties as it learns more about who may have been impacted.


It stressed customers should contact the bank -- as always -- if any suspicious activity on their accounts is detected and they will not be liable for fraud.

People familiar with the investigation said the evidence gathered so far suggested hackers were able to make a significant foray into J.P. Morgan's computer system. People with knowledge of the probe said it appeared between two and five U.S. financial institutions may have been affected. The names of all targeted banks couldn't be immediately determined.

J.P. Morgan and federal cyber investigators are in discussions as they examine the apparent attack on the bank's computer system.

"Companies of our size unfortunately experience cyberattacks nearly every day," said Trish Wexler, a J.P. Morgan spokeswoman said Wednesday. "We have multiple layers of defense to counteract any threats and constantly monitor fraud levels."

The FBI said Wednesday it is "working with the United States Secret Service to determine the scope of recently reported cyber attacks against several American financial institutions."


The attack appears to have been caused by malicious computer code, known as malware, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Thefts of U.S. corporate data have in the past often come from hackers based in China, Russia or the former Soviet Union, though that doesn't mean the cyberattacks involve those governments. Just as in the U.S., hackers in those countries can act on their own and sell stolen data to other organizations.

The style of the attacks and the targets—large U.S. financial institutions—have led some people briefed on the investigation to suspect a possible Russian or Eastern European link. Russian organized crime often targets large financial institutions. But several people with knowledge of the investigation cautioned it is too early to tell who was behind the attacks.

Hackers appear to have originally breached J.P. Morgan's network via an employee's personal computer, a person close to the investigation said. From there, the intruders were able to move further into the bank's inner systems. Employees often use software to tap in to corporate networks from home through what are known as virtual private networks.

Such an attack would mark the latest instance in which a large corporate network was breached by a weak external link. When hackers stole 40 million payment-card numbers from Target Corp. TGT -0.46% last year, they originally infiltrated the retailer by stealing a ventilation contractor's password.

J.P. Morgan Chase's corporate headquarters in New York City. Getty Images

In mid-August, cybercriminals hacked in to nearly 1,000 grocery stores around the U.S. The common link: Supervalu Inc. SVU -0.93% of Eden Prairie, Minn., which managed the stores' technology services and had remote access to those locations, people familiar with that incident have said.

In recent weeks, J.P. Morgan called numerous security vendors with concerns it had a problem, people close to the investigation said. The bank in recent months hired a number of employees with Defense Department experience because the firm treats cybersecurity as a problem akin to military security, people familiar with the matter said.

Cybersecurity has been a chief concern—and cost—for large banks over the past few years.

J.P. Morgan, along with other banks, has been vulnerable to attacks in the past, particularly so-called distributed denial of service threats, known as DDoS. These attacks knock websites offline by flooding them with useless traffic. Iranian hackers aimed a DDoS attack at J.P. Morgan, U.S. Bancorp, PNC Financial Services Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. in 2012, according to U.S. officials.

James Dimon, chairman and chief executive of J.P. Morgan, wrote in his annual shareholder letter this year that the bank will spend more than $250 million annually and have about 1,000 people focused on cybersecurity by the end of 2014. That includes building and running three Cybersecurity Operations Centers in its regional headquarters to coordinate incoming information, identify threats, create response procedures and coordinate security of its buildings world-wide, he wrote.

"Cyberattacks are growing every day in strength and velocity across the globe," he wrote. "It is going to be a continual and likely never-ending battle to stay ahead of it—and, unfortunately, not every battle will be won."

Write to Danny Yadron at [email protected], Emily Glazer at [email protected] and Devlin Barrett at [email protected]
legendary
Activity: 2324
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my theory is that ww3 is short-term bearish, long-term bullish

For whom or what? Bitcoin?
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
my theory is that ww3 is short-term bearish, long-term bullish
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