Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26458. (Read 26609460 times)

The binary future meme needs to die.  There is only one future worth living in, and in that future bitcoin can only fail by being replaced by superior tech.  Tech which will be available first, at the lowest cost, to then current holders of bitcoin.
In any other future anyone worthy of the label ' human'  will die in the resistance.

This is fun.  We're like a group of dogs with a bone, but instead of snapping at each other we pass the bone around and just kind of growl in satisfaction because we're civilized dogs.

I want a rainbow castle in the sky! 

Conversely, trying to "fundamentalize" the May 20 breakout seems silly to me. There was no strong fundamental reason in the vicinity of that date that is likely to have caused it. In fact, that you keep coming back to this date/price event shows how unsatisfactory any fundamental explanations of it so far have been.

The way to look at this one is technical, but since you believe technical explanations are circular or uninformative, they're not available to you, so I predict you will come continue searching for an explanation in the future as well

Might as well ask for a unicorn while you are at it  .

That is one reason why I am skeptical of bitcoin: I have yet to see a "business plan", a consistent and fairly complete description of a future "bitcoin economy", with explicit numbers for volume of commercial use, fees, confirmation delays, deflation rate, wealth distribution, hoarding, banking, legal status, taxes, mining costs, etc.

Like, why would people use BTC for payments, if it is not inflationary -- why would they not hoard every BTC they get, and use some Garbagecoin or national currencies for payments?  But if they were to do that, why would bitcoin have any value at all?
The simplistic arguments of trillions divided by 21 million seem to fall apart once one tries to fill in the details...

This is fun.  We're like a group of dogs with a bone, but instead of snapping at each other we pass the bone around and just kind of growl in satisfaction because we're civilized dogs.

We still got 2 months of this if you ask me..

The binary future meme needs to die.

........Conversely, trying to "fundamentalize" the May 20 breakout seems silly to me. There was no strong fundamental reason in the vicinity of that date that is likely to have caused it. In fact, that you keep coming back to this date/price event shows how unsatisfactory any fundamental explanations of it so far have been.

The way to look at this one is technical, but since you believe technical explanations are circular or uninformative, they're not available to you, so I predict you will come continue searching for an explanation in the future as well

What happened? Is nobody interested in Bitcoin anymore?
No postings here, no volume on the exchanges, WTF.

if we don't break below 100 today, i'd say the mid term looks crazy bullish.
if we do break 100 today, mid term will still be bullish

In my mind, I read that in the enthusiastic voice of a shopping network presenter...

We go up? That's bullish! We go down? That's bullish too. We stay where we are? That's ULTRA-bullish!

I agree we needed a drop to get people to start buying again. But I don't think a $5 drop is anywhere near enough. Many people out there were expecting to see 50 on the last drop and we never made it there. Not saying we do this time, but with the dead volume before the drop, it looks like interest (outside of wales) at these levels is not that high.

No, but I'll give you a SHA256 hash you can quote for future reference:

Why not just change the title to "Wall Observer - BTC/USD wall movement tracker - Hardcore"

180?

That is one reason why I am skeptical of bitcoin: I have yet to see a "business plan", a consistent and fairly complete description of a future "bitcoin economy", with explicit numbers for volume of commercial use, fees, confirmation delays, deflation rate, wealth distribution, hoarding, banking, legal status, taxes, mining costs, etc.

That "business plan" does not have to be probable, and I don't mind if there is no plan to get there from here; but it would have to be detailed enough to withstand "attacks" by skeptics.  Like, why would people use BTC for payments, if it is not inflationary -- why would they not hoard every BTC they get, and use some Garbagecoin or national currencies for payments?  But if they were to do that, why would bitcoin have any value at all?

The simplistic arguments of trillions divided by 21 million seem to fall apart once one tries to fill in the details...

A rational true believer should understand that any project has a non-zero probability to fail. Also, no one wants to live in underground sewage while holding five figures of bitcoin @ five figures USD each.

True believers in the future success of bitcoin as global currency should be buying and holding even if the price rose to five figures.  That they are not means that any such true believers have run out of money so they can't influence the price any more.

A rational true believer should understand that any project has a non-zero probability to fail. Also, no one wants to live in underground sewage while holding five figures of bitcoin @ five figures USD each.

I've read we're at a breakout point about 20 times in the last 2 months.
Don't you people ever get tired of claiming this and being wrong.

Hm, ok, so why can't human cognitive process outputs be worth 10$ apiece tomorrow?  

Seriously, you are right in that the current price is not supported by its utility but only by the traders' feelings about what the price will do in the near future.  (Whether it succeeds or fails, bitcoin will be a valuable experiment for financial studies, as an instrument whose market price evolved for years on pure speculation, with no "contamination" by fundamentals.)

Yet, most of the major price moves since last year have clear external causes, such as the seizure of Silk Road, the PBoC decrees and their workarounds, the "bug in bitcoin" announcement, etc..

Granted, most of these events were unpredictable, and acted through changing peoples' outlooks, so that the magnitude of the change would have been impossible to estimate.  But one can imagine dozens of events like those that could happen an d bring the price down.  Just as some predict a rally if the SEC approves COIN.

As for the May/20--Jun/05 rally, in particular: for most of the time since then, the price has either wandered about or drifted down.  The rise (and the support after it) came in a few sudden, concentrated buying spurts. So that rally cannot be explained as a general diffuse change of traders' outlook; it seems more likely that there was a series of discrete external events causing each spurt,

Thus, I would rather believe that is was a few big traders getting some inside information, one at a time. But I can't figure out what the information could be, nor whether it was in China or in the "West".