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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26454. (Read 26609609 times)

donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
The point is that with bitcoin (in the endgame, when it is more stable and super user-friendly) they won't have to buy stocks, bonds etc. to get the same benefits that fiat delivers today.  
That is why a "business plan" is needed.  Obviously, the purchase power of bitcoin cannot keep growing 1000% per year forever.   When it stabilizes, will bitcoins appreciate more than stocks, or less than stocks? If more, no one will exchange their bitcoins for stock (so how would new companies start, and where will all the holders' revenue come from)?  If it starts growing less than stocks, then people will want to exchange their bitcoin hoards for stocks, and price will drop, maybe 90% or more, untill all the 21 million coins are in circulation.  Will this be the case, or will bitcoin appreciate just as much as bonds and stocks? The "business plan" would have to pick one aleternative and show that it is consistent with teh rest of the model.

Quote
However there are fees associated with moving in and out of bonds, stocks etc. .   If you want to buy and sell bitcoin on an exchange now, there are also fees associated with it, but when more people use it for buying their pizza, paying out salaries etc., this won't be the case.  
Depending on the date of the "endgame" and the guessed price of bitcoin then, mining may not be enough to sustain the network, so the transaction fees will be mandatory.  The "business plan"  would have to guess the transaction volume, pick a percentage for the fees, and specify the difficulty level that matches that.  (Depending on the fee structure, paying a pizza with bitcoin may or may not make sense.)

One complication is that there may be banks and/or credit card companies offering payment services in bitcoin, possibly with smaller fees (being centralized, their porcessing costs would be much smaller than bitcoin's) and/or other advantages (like lending, cancellation, insurance, etc.)  But payments made through them will normally be accounted in their internal ledgers, not in their blockchain (like, as of now, most dollar payments made through banks do not involve dollar bills).  Those intrabank payments will not pay bitcoin transaction fees.  So, in order to establish the bitcoin demand and fees, the business plan would have to identify the fraction of payments that will be made through the blockchain, and may have to pay higher fees than bank transfers.

I know that all these issues have been extensively discussed, but I have only seen them addressed one at a time, and I wonder whether the "solutions" that have been presented for them in isolation are compatible with each other.  (For example, I recall one famous advocate claiming that people would pay coffee and groceries with a blockchain app on their cellphones, while another claimed that bitcoin would be used only for expensive items like cars or real estate, another wrote that it would be used only for transactions that need to be hidden, and yet another that it would be used only for inter-bank settlements...)
Bitcoin growth and volatility is not an issue if you use businesses willing to take the risk for you. You may choose the level of risk depending on your confidence in Bitcoin. As far as stocks are concerned, they are legacy just like the banks and will be disrupted as well.
Quote
That is why a "business plan" is needed.
This is a strawman. Your entire exposition is based on changing the argument. No business plan is needed. Nobody needs to "guess" the price of Bitcoin unless that is their business model as they can always pass along the cost to their customers just like every other business. All this talk about banks fees is silly. Any large company can float interdepartmental  payments with zero confirmation blockchain transactions because they have some trust and improve corporate transparency with triple-entry accounting.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Relax!
If there is one thing I have learnt about Bitcoin this year it is that no one has a clue what is going to happen with the price

Well ... you're not right :-)

I can say what will happen with the price. 
It will go up and away and this can happen at any time from now :-)


You really sure? What makes you think that? I'm also quite optimistic, a BULL in your language Wink But do you have some of this TA to support that? I really want to make sure the price really goes up again!
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1199
If there is one thing I have learnt about Bitcoin this year it is that no one has a clue what is going to happen with the price

Well ... you're not right :-)

I can say what will happen with the price. 
It will go up and away and this can happen at any time from now :-)
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Relax!
ohh my

http://www.iflscience.com/technology/ibm-reveals-incredible-new-brain-inspired-chip

seriously, i cant wait for the day Intel, IBM & co will jump on bitcoin's train.. CCMFFFFF for ever and ever and everrrrrr Shocked

But what if Intel jumps on the train by designing an IC that's far more superior to any other ASIC chip, and they just use it to achieve over 51% of the total network! They could destroy bitcoin! They're experts in IC design like no one else!!!
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
The point is that with bitcoin (in the endgame, when it is more stable and super user-friendly) they won't have to buy stocks, bonds etc. to get the same benefits that fiat delivers today.  
That is why a "business plan" is needed.  Obviously, the purchase power of bitcoin cannot keep growing 1000% per year forever.   When it stabilizes, will bitcoins appreciate more than stocks, or less than stocks? If more, no one will exchange their bitcoins for stock (so how would new companies start, and where will all the holders' revenue come from)?  If it starts growing less than stocks, then people will want to exchange their bitcoin hoards for stocks, and price will drop, maybe 90% or more, untill all the 21 million coins are in circulation.  Will this be the case, or will bitcoin appreciate just as much as bonds and stocks? The "business plan" would have to pick one aleternative and show that it is consistent with teh rest of the model.

Quote
However there are fees associated with moving in and out of bonds, stocks etc. .   If you want to buy and sell bitcoin on an exchange now, there are also fees associated with it, but when more people use it for buying their pizza, paying out salaries etc., this won't be the case.  
Depending on the date of the "endgame" and the guessed price of bitcoin then, mining may not be enough to sustain the network, so the transaction fees will be mandatory.  The "business plan"  would have to guess the transaction volume, pick a percentage for the fees, and specify the difficulty level that matches that.  (Depending on the fee structure, paying a pizza with bitcoin may or may not make sense.)

One complication is that there may be banks and/or credit card companies offering payment services in bitcoin, possibly with smaller fees (being centralized, their porcessing costs would be much smaller than bitcoin's) and/or other advantages (like lending, cancellation, insurance, etc.)  But payments made through them will normally be accounted in their internal ledgers, not in their blockchain (like, as of now, most dollar payments made through banks do not involve dollar bills).  Those intrabank payments will not pay bitcoin transaction fees.  So, in order to establish the bitcoin demand and fees, the business plan would have to identify the fraction of payments that will be made through the blockchain, and may have to pay higher fees than bank transfers.

I know that all these issues have been extensively discussed, but I have only seen them addressed one at a time, and I wonder whether the "solutions" that have been presented for them in isolation are compatible with each other.  (For example, I recall one famous advocate claiming that people would pay coffee and groceries with a blockchain app on their cellphones, while another claimed that bitcoin would be used only for expensive items like cars or real estate, another wrote that it would be used only for transactions that need to be hidden, and yet another that it would be used only for inter-bank settlements...)
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
ohh my

http://www.iflscience.com/technology/ibm-reveals-incredible-new-brain-inspired-chip

seriously, i cant wait for the day Intel, IBM & co will jump on bitcoin's train.. CCMFFFFF for ever and ever and everrrrrr Shocked
legendary
Activity: 3164
Merit: 2258
I fix broken miners. And make holes in teeth :-)
It does seem to be a bit of a random walk. Speaking of random, been in Vegas this week, lost a total of $400 at the craps tables playing dont come/don't pass. Technically that should be the best odds in Vegas (very close to 50%), so I keep wondering why I tend to lose on trips (no the game can't be rigged as craps is self-biased).

I keep telling myself it is nothing but pure odds, then the girl on the other end of the table rolls a string of 4/10 points and blows my odds into the water. It is nothing but pure odds.....

C
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
If there is one thing I have learnt about Bitcoin this year it is that no one has a clue what is going to happen with the price

Good lesson. Applicable outside of Bitcoin though.
sr. member
Activity: 952
Merit: 281
If there is one thing I have learnt about Bitcoin this year it is that no one has a clue what is going to happen with the price
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 4200
Merit: 4887
You're never too old to think young.
I'm pretty sure only a very small % of the traders actually make profit.

Of course.

It's the exchanges who profit on every buy and sell.

The constant day-traders are the casino/midway rubes being played for suckers by showmen like P. T. Barnum Karpeles and his ilk.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
And it's over already. Now everyone will sell to get their 50 bucks profit and we'll be back where we started.

don't forget the people that panic bought and immediately panic sold for a 50 dollar loss. there's plenty of those here too. Smiley

Oh believe me. I'm pretty sure only a very small % of the traders actually make profit. Making this constant dumping even more stupid.

Did you not participate in this stupid dumping? Makes it you stupid as well in this case?
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1638
Merit: 1001
₪``Campaign Manager´´₪
Why would you hold Garbagecoin or fiat when it depreciates while you hold it.  Why not immediately exchange your Garbagecoin for BTC that holds its value (or appreciates), and then spend it when you want to spend money? 
People still use dollar bills all the time for their convenience, not bothered by the fact that dollar bills lose 1% (or whatever) per year of purchase power.   People who want to store value do not save dollar bills, they buy stocks, Treasury bonds, real estate, etc..  Why would it not be the same with Bitcoin vs. Garbagecoin?

Only problem is that stocks pay dividends, bonds pay uinterest, but bitcoin is worth anything only if people will want to buy it for use as currency...

That is what a "business plan"  would have to do: describe an economic scenario for bitcoin such that individuals (including ordinary consumers as well as miners, entrepreneurs, big investors, etc.), acting on their self-interest, would tend to maintain that scenario, or at least would not destroy it right away.
The point is that with bitcoin (in the endgame, when it is more stable and super user-friendly) they won't have to buy stocks, bonds etc. to get the same benefits that fiat delivers today.  
Real estate is only for rich people.  Bonds and stocks somewhat less so.  However there are fees associated with moving in and out of bonds, stocks etc. .   If you want to buy and sell bitcoin on an exchange now, there are also fees associated with it, but when more people use it for buying their pizza, paying out salaries etc., this won't be the case.  
Moreover, bitcoin would be more liquid, divisible and fungible than stocks, and therefore more desirable in a transaction.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
And the other exchanges are not following Bitstamp.


Sandia... Hello.   We are getting within $3 of never, never land, no?

Yep, what, 4 days later?


If you may recall, your prediction included an outline of a seemingly inevitable weekend pattern (and the inclusion of absolutist type language), yet I hope you did NOT put money on that anticipated pattern b/c you would have lost this weekend.  I am NOT trying to suggest that I know much of anything regarding the direction of the market - except possibly that there are NOT absolutes, and my point is that others do NOT know about the direction of the market with much certainty either.. even though we can talk about probabilities, it is overkill to talk in terms of absolutes - b/c very likely you will be wrong (even though you may get it right, once in a while, too). 
legendary
Activity: 1159
Merit: 1001
Nice little rally, not time yet to pull out the GIF images.  Grin
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100
And the other exchanges are not following Bitstamp.


Sandia... Hello.   We are getting within $3 of never, never land, no?

Yep, what, 4 days later?
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1199

I told you Smiley >$600 till Monday Tongue

And you didn't believed! =) now you will see! Smiley

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