Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27013. (Read 26630539 times)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/06/26/bitcoin-bitstamp/

It feels good to make a prediction that works out.  Good enough that some (overconfident, young, ego driven) take it as a signal that they've got it all figured out and their next prediction will work out as well. 

For everyone here who mocked me and told me I "can't be trusted" because I'm too passionate about my price forecasts, well, here's some news that you might not like. I called the price (I picked $565 on the poll when it opened last week). At the time, there were only two others in that camp with me and many, many, many in the >650 camp.

So who are you going to listen to? The guy who will bullshit you and tell you that we're going to the moon after the auction, because millionaires -- for whatever inane reason -- are supposedly going to overpay for a depreciating asset, or the the guy who will tell you what's really going on. I'm right again and the permabull morons who flamed me... wrong. Oh well, what's new.

I think this might be the ultimate example of a Keynesian beauty contest. Everything knows it shouldn't be a big deal. But everyone is expecting everyone else to blink first, so a lot of blinking happens.
For the literal-minded among you, replace 'blink' with 'sell' and this will make more sense.

Religious nutters.

on a side note, I am not a Muslim fanatic, I question things very often and I don't care about what any book says, I have to be convinced to believe in things.

the 0% interest is a great thing to be honest, it simply doesn't allow a loaning economy to exist (free money) yet give the chance for businesses and individuals to achieve goals without using them, some could argue that the interest is the benefit that you get for risking your money, yes true to some point but in all economies it turns out to be the free money from the bank and back to the bank, the huge interest is generated from thin air and add nothing to the community, in fact it just encourage greed and laziness and gives a fake pump to the economy.

But how can a bank get income and pay for salaries and and all other costs ? well it is simple an Islamic bank isn't by the western definition a bank, it is a commercial institution, it is not a bank per se, you never get cash as a loan... you need a car? they buy you the car and rent it to you for a tiny profit until you become the owner, you need to buy a house ? they negotiate to buy it for you with the owner and you can live in it and pay "rent" for a time you agreed upon until you pay the whole price and you become the owner, you cant sell it untill you pay, simply you are not the owner of anything until you pay it off.  

think of leasing as the closer to an Islamic loan but with way less fees.


Bitcoin is like commerce, you buy it for $10 and you sell it for the best bidder, it could be $5 or $500, so it is not a gray area, it as clear as it can get, this is what most Arabs did for a living for centuries.

When no one really wants to buy and no one really wants to sell, it doesn't take much to move the price.

Explanation

All human systems will be gamed.

A quick ride to 800 is not all that unlikely, after the auction.  It is major resistance after all.  I would expect an initial continuation of the down-trend, as those who want the auction to pump the market are disappointed, and give up.  When they are done, and the fiat is warmed up, then the upside will be seen.

Look at the last two swings.  The upswing was quite rapid, and the downswing relatively gradual.  Most people are trained on equities.  They know that bull markets are gradual things, climbing a proverbial wall of worry, while bear markets are panic driven, often rapid, sometimes sudden.  But in pair trades like BTCUSD, either component can be in a bull or bear market, so inverting the chart, we see that the current condition is characteristic of a bullish swing in USD, following a quick bearish swing during the latter part of May.  I would not extend this interpretation to the November spike because the topping phase of a hype cycle is a very different dynamic, with different motivations.  

What I draw from this is that holders of BTC have a need of USD.  Given the volumes we are seeing, it might even be that a single seller is driving the trend.  The 500/8hr guy finally succumbed to his wife's insistence on diversifying into u.s. equity mutual funds like all the "wise" financial advice (propaganda) would insist. (Sorry dude, you are doomed now, unless you can hold those funds until 2040 and USD can last that long.)

I don't think the USD bull market can last much longer.  USDJPY is certainly turning.  Very different dynamics, of course, but post-SCO outlook for USD is changing rapidly on several fronts.  Faith in ECB persists while faith in FRB is flagging.  Trade is being re-denominated (and simultaneously shrinking) so that US fiat exports face lower demand.  RMB floats in 2015.  Iran is exporting a lot of oil to China now.  

I'm simplifying for brevity, telling a story by telegraphy.

Thanks for the info!

If I understand it correctly , Muslims are not permitted to earn interest on money, this is "Riba" and is forbidden.
What they can do is receive rent for an asset they own - so a Muslim may buy an apartment, a physical good, and receive rent for allowing someone else to use it.
Given that bitcoin is not a physical thing on which one can earn a return I would have thought it was a bit of a grey area for Islamic finance anyway. Equities are ok as are securitizations as in those you buy the right to a series of cashflows that derive from a real asset, bitcoin hmm, tricky.

By killing each other

Guys, I'm not a professional quote maker (yet), but I must say it...

In this moment, I am euphoric. Not because of any phony god’s blessing. But because, I am enlightened by my intelligence.

Reading about mmitech issue makes me wonder...

How do the Muslims deal with banks? Interest = 0%??

serious question.

Explanation

Religion, not even once

*tip*

He appears to be correct according to the dogma of his religion. However, it should be noted that adherents tie logic in knots in order to allow loans to have an interest-like attachment without actually calling it interest. Humans do tend to rationalize.

...and here is the next one coming around.
I can smell somthing. 
Huobi did just break out downwards... (the ascending trendline)
 

Good news maybe not, real world progress and developments will.