Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27600. (Read 26712700 times)
May 25, 2014, 04:28:37 PM
I'm tired of watching the charts. I'll come back in two weeks.
May 25, 2014, 04:25:34 PM
It ain't news yet.
May 25, 2014, 04:25:07 PM
The crash to double digits is not gonna happen! But I'm convinced a decline to the price due to the news is perfectly possible. Remember what the speculation about China did?
May 25, 2014, 04:24:33 PM
So today is the official end of bubble day. And this is being declared on the basis of one posting on the internet. Quel dommage. Let's reevaluate at the end of the season.
Because without manipulation and fake trading bubbles are completely impossible of course ....
Correct. I guess we'd better have one last bubble tonight for old time's sake before calling it quits.
May 25, 2014, 04:24:13 PM
So today is the official end of bubble day. And this is being declared on the basis of one posting on the internet. Quel dommage. Let's reevaluate at the end of the season.
If human psychology and herd instinct is such an important factor in market behaviour, it's quite possible that this pattern is now hard baked into the BTC cycle.
If human psychology and herd instinct is such an important factor in market behaviour, it's quite possible that this pattern is now hard baked into the BTC cycle.
Not end of "bubble" day. End off "huge (fake) bubble" day, possibly. There will always be bubbles.
No effect on longterm growth.
May 25, 2014, 04:23:02 PM
So today is the official end of bubble day. And this is being declared on the basis of one posting on the internet. Quel dommage. Let's reevaluate at the end of the season.
Because without manipulation and fake trading bubbles are completely impossible of course ....
May 25, 2014, 04:19:23 PM
So today is the official end of bubble day. And this is being declared on the basis of one posting on the internet. Quel dommage. Let's reevaluate at the end of the season.
If human psychology and herd instinct is such an important factor in market behaviour, it's quite possible that this pattern is now hard baked into the BTC cycle.
If human psychology and herd instinct is such an important factor in market behaviour, it's quite possible that this pattern is now hard baked into the BTC cycle.
May 25, 2014, 04:12:50 PM
Quote
It needs to be recognized that, whether intentional or not (though plausible ignorance only goes so far), Mt. Gox has effectively been abusing Bitcoin to operate a Ponzi scheme for at least a year. The November “bubble” well into the $1000′s – and possibly April’s as well – was driven by hundreds of millions of dollars of fake liquidity pumped into the market out of thin air...
That said, despite everyone’s expectations, it seems unlikely that there will be another huge “bubble”, seeing as they were never “real” in the first place.
That said, despite everyone’s expectations, it seems unlikely that there will be another huge “bubble”, seeing as they were never “real” in the first place.
It's not that there won't be more bubbles, but that they're unlikely to be as extreme (10x in 2 months or whatever) and volatile as they've been in the past. Volatility has been artificially propped up, basically.
This says nothing about Bitcoin's potential to reach various price levels, as it would need to do anyway to support various levels of commerce in 5yrs, 10yrs, etc.
Ironically, these artificial injections may have sped up the growth of Bitcoin. Inevitably, each bubble popped dramatically, but it left in it's wake more media coverage, attention, etc., than would have otherwise been "newsworthy".
May 25, 2014, 04:08:49 PM
Altcoins will come and go... bitcoin is here to stay, there's nothing an alt coin can do that bitcoin can't morph to include...
LTC has a faster blockchain? Bitcoin will get side chains/ tree chains (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/new-paper-accelerating-bitcoins-trasaction-processing-359582).
DRK is anonymous. Bitcoin will get CoinJoin (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/coinjoin-bitcoin-privacy-for-the-real-world-279249) and Dark Wallet.
Don't forget ColoredCoins: http://coloredcoins.org/about/what-are-coloredcoins/
I'm not saying there's no money to be made in alts, but they're just a testing stage for bitcoin.
LTC has a faster blockchain? Bitcoin will get side chains/ tree chains (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/new-paper-accelerating-bitcoins-trasaction-processing-359582).
DRK is anonymous. Bitcoin will get CoinJoin (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/coinjoin-bitcoin-privacy-for-the-real-world-279249) and Dark Wallet.
Don't forget ColoredCoins: http://coloredcoins.org/about/what-are-coloredcoins/
I'm not saying there's no money to be made in alts, but they're just a testing stage for bitcoin.
May 25, 2014, 04:07:00 PM
http://willyreport.wordpress.com/
Crash to double digits incoming.
Quote
It needs to be recognized that, whether intentional or not (though plausible ignorance only goes so far), Mt. Gox has effectively been abusing Bitcoin to operate a Ponzi scheme for at least a year. The November “bubble” well into the $1000′s – and possibly April’s as well – was driven by hundreds of millions of dollars of fake liquidity pumped into the market out of thin air...
That said, despite everyone’s expectations, it seems unlikely that there will be another huge “bubble”, seeing as they were never “real” in the first place.
That said, despite everyone’s expectations, it seems unlikely that there will be another huge “bubble”, seeing as they were never “real” in the first place.
Crash to double digits incoming.
Am i the only one who finds the accent on this kinda fishy? The whole blog tries to come out as just collection of objective facts, and here he just draws a conclusion about future of the btc price. Kinda weird.
that price manipulation in the screen shot was when mtgox was going out of business so they wanted to hold the market up, right? this sounds like fear mongering to me...
Huh??? RTFA. The bot has spent $110 MILLION US DOLLARS buying >280,000 BITCOINS in the November bubble ALONE. There is evidence it was involved in every bitcoin bubble to date. If this is confirmed, its chilling. This is big news.
May 25, 2014, 04:04:33 PM
http://willyreport.wordpress.com/
Crash to double digits incoming.
Quote
It needs to be recognized that, whether intentional or not (though plausible ignorance only goes so far), Mt. Gox has effectively been abusing Bitcoin to operate a Ponzi scheme for at least a year. The November “bubble” well into the $1000′s – and possibly April’s as well – was driven by hundreds of millions of dollars of fake liquidity pumped into the market out of thin air...
That said, despite everyone’s expectations, it seems unlikely that there will be another huge “bubble”, seeing as they were never “real” in the first place.
That said, despite everyone’s expectations, it seems unlikely that there will be another huge “bubble”, seeing as they were never “real” in the first place.
Crash to double digits incoming.
Am i the only one who finds the accent on this kinda fishy? The whole blog tries to come out as just collection of objective facts, and here he just draws a conclusion about future of the btc price. Kinda weird.
that price manipulation in the screen shot was when mtgox was going out of business so they wanted to hold the market up, right? this sounds like fear mongering to me...
umm something is worth what someone will pay for it. clearly people will pay $1200 for btc when it is being operated by some crooked as fuck jap website.
what do you think it is going to be worth when the etf is being operated by some goldman sacks operator?
you guys think $50,000 is time to sell? hahahahhahaha fools.
May 25, 2014, 04:01:41 PM
http://willyreport.wordpress.com/
Crash to double digits incoming.
Quote
It needs to be recognized that, whether intentional or not (though plausible ignorance only goes so far), Mt. Gox has effectively been abusing Bitcoin to operate a Ponzi scheme for at least a year. The November “bubble” well into the $1000′s – and possibly April’s as well – was driven by hundreds of millions of dollars of fake liquidity pumped into the market out of thin air...
That said, despite everyone’s expectations, it seems unlikely that there will be another huge “bubble”, seeing as they were never “real” in the first place.
That said, despite everyone’s expectations, it seems unlikely that there will be another huge “bubble”, seeing as they were never “real” in the first place.
Crash to double digits incoming.
Am i the only one who finds the accent on this kinda fishy? The whole blog tries to come out as just collection of objective facts, and here he just draws a conclusion about future of the btc price. Kinda weird.
that price manipulation in the screen shot was when mtgox was going out of business so they wanted to hold the market up, right? this sounds like fear mongering to me...
May 25, 2014, 04:00:38 PM
May 25, 2014, 04:00:29 PM
at the moment LTC is the only alt that I would consider trading and investing in... it is also the safest one and the biggest and oldest and most developed
18 months back I would have agreed with you but times are changing, innovations and developments occurring - it pays to keep an open mind and a few satoshis available for new things.
+1
I wholeheartedly agree, however, I am afraid no one is listening to you, Nanobrain. I am actually shocked.
I have now sold half my LTC (which I never imagined even a couple of months back I would do) to get into DRK / MRO and XC and these and other new coins are looking really interesting as well as being wonderfully volatile.
So many coins, yes - but not watching alts for developments is extremely short-sighted.
The volumes for the top handfull of new coins is quite hefty, and as long as you buy according to innovative features, they're starting to make LTC look dated now.
It will not move up with BTC like is used to as most people do not want to spend BTC on alts, but old LTC stocks (and PPC /NMC / XPM... et al) seem unnecessary now.
Coins actually die and disappear every day - and only really innovative ones rise (and rise quickly).
IMHO Anyone not watching is taking a big risk, as well as losing some interesting opportunities.
well IMHO all the coins you pointed above are in a temporary hype, as usually they get pumped then people jumps in wishing to make some profits, and you go around the forum to hear them talking about how great the coin is and it offers this and that and whatnot but the real deal is that most coins are horse shit... seriously there I dont see the purpose of most of the coins, and dont tell me about anonimity and privacy... coinjoin offers the same shit, it was gmaxwell project (idea) and it can be implemented on any coin ( Bitcoin, litecoin, shitcoin....), even if we assume that an anonymous coin would technically survive how and who do you think will adopt that coin ?
the only 2 most innovative coins I came across that really deserved some attention were Ethereum and NXT, sadly the pre-mine (IPO) philosophy killed a fear start, also the market is not really prepared for these features yet... we've got a long path to bring the basic features to masses, only then we can think about going to the next level.
People should be watching NXT. If it were on all the exchanges DRK was on, it would be much higher. It is truly innovative and even if its before its time, it will be ready when its time has come.
NXT is also in discussions with Overstock.com regarding a bond issuance and it will soon become its own decentralized alt-coin exchange, where people can trade essentially for free.
So, because people don't do research, they think that DRK has special features, when, in fact, coins like MRO are much more superior as autonomous coins, while coins and systems like NXT are also capable of having this autonomy built into their system.
DRK is going to crash soon.
May 25, 2014, 03:55:23 PM
I dunno what to think. The current formation looks like a top with a bear flag (and we are currently in the flag) But it also feels bullish 
Do you think we might fall out of the bear flag for a leg down and then maybe continue the up trend?
Do you think we might fall out of the bear flag for a leg down and then maybe continue the up trend? Its forming a bullish pennant. There is very little - sans these fake walls - that are keeping us from testing 590-600.
After the big impulsive move up from 540-586, it is very unlikely that we dont have at least one more follow through leg coming.
I do think there will be a bigger overall correction coming soon, but normally that comes right when everything thinks we are going to the moon in 5 minutes. Right now we are consolidating again.
Another leg up is imminent.
May 25, 2014, 03:54:17 PM
at the moment LTC is the only alt that I would consider trading and investing in... it is also the safest one and the biggest and oldest and most developed
18 months back I would have agreed with you but times are changing, innovations and developments occurring - it pays to keep an open mind and a few satoshis available for new things.
+1
I wholeheartedly agree, however, I am afraid no one is listening to you, Nanobrain. I am actually shocked.
I have now sold half my LTC (which I never imagined even a couple of months back I would do) to get into DRK / MRO and XC and these and other new coins are looking really interesting as well as being wonderfully volatile.
So many coins, yes - but not watching alts for developments is extremely short-sighted.
The volumes for the top handfull of new coins is quite hefty, and as long as you buy according to innovative features, they're starting to make LTC look dated now.
It will not move up with BTC like is used to as most people do not want to spend BTC on alts, but old LTC stocks (and PPC /NMC / XPM... et al) seem unnecessary now.
Coins actually die and disappear every day - and only really innovative ones rise (and rise quickly).
IMHO Anyone not watching is taking a big risk, as well as losing some interesting opportunities.
well IMHO all the coins you pointed above are in a temporary hype, as usually they get pumped then people jumps in wishing to make some profits, and you go around the forum to hear them talking about how great the coin is and it offers this and that and whatnot but the real deal is that most coins are horse shit... seriously there I dont see the purpose of most of the coins, and dont tell me about anonimity and privacy... coinjoin offers the same shit, it was gmaxwell project (idea) and it can be implemented on any coin ( Bitcoin, litecoin, shitcoin....), even if we assume that an anonymous coin would technically survive how and who do you think will adopt that coin ?
the only 2 most innovative coins I came across that really deserved some attention were Ethereum and NXT, sadly the pre-mine (IPO) philosophy killed a fair start, also the market is not really prepared for these features yet... we've got a long path to bring the basic features to masses, only then we can think about going to the next level.
May 25, 2014, 03:54:11 PM
http://willyreport.wordpress.com/
Crash to double digits incoming.
Quote
It needs to be recognized that, whether intentional or not (though plausible ignorance only goes so far), Mt. Gox has effectively been abusing Bitcoin to operate a Ponzi scheme for at least a year. The November “bubble” well into the $1000′s – and possibly April’s as well – was driven by hundreds of millions of dollars of fake liquidity pumped into the market out of thin air...
That said, despite everyone’s expectations, it seems unlikely that there will be another huge “bubble”, seeing as they were never “real” in the first place.
That said, despite everyone’s expectations, it seems unlikely that there will be another huge “bubble”, seeing as they were never “real” in the first place.
Crash to double digits incoming.
Am i the only one who finds the accent on this kinda fishy? The whole blog tries to come out as just collection of objective facts, and here he just draws a conclusion about future of the btc price. Kinda weird.
If his facts are facts, then his conclusions are obviously also logical.
Another explanation for the Willy robot is that it was doing arbitrage with China. Namely, buying cheap coins at MtGOX and sending them to a partner in China, who sold them there (presumably at BTC-China) for a higher price.
Indeed, the report argues that Markus must have been the cause of the August rally because the price at MtGOX jumped up whenever Markus bought, and remained flat between his buys. But the price at BTC-China increased steadily through August. This suggestst that BTC-China was leading, and MtGOX was following, by discrete jumps, through Markus's arbitrage.
I have not looked carefully at Sep-Nov, but it seems that there too China (ultimately including Huobi and OKCoin, besides BTC-China) was leading, and Markus/Willy were following.
All that one-sided arbitrage would have required an awful amount (hundreds of millions?) of USD in the arbitrager's MtGOX account. Since Markus/Willy paid no fees, it may have been an insider, and it may have paid with non-existent money, as the report argues. In that case, perhaps Markus/Willy expected to get the money later from the Chinese partner; but the latter defaulted, or could not transfer the money due to the PBoC restrictions.
Indeed, the report argues that Markus must have been the cause of the August rally because the price at MtGOX jumped up whenever Markus bought, and remained flat between his buys. But the price at BTC-China increased steadily through August. This suggestst that BTC-China was leading, and MtGOX was following, by discrete jumps, through Markus's arbitrage.
I have not looked carefully at Sep-Nov, but it seems that there too China (ultimately including Huobi and OKCoin, besides BTC-China) was leading, and Markus/Willy were following.
All that one-sided arbitrage would have required an awful amount (hundreds of millions?) of USD in the arbitrager's MtGOX account. Since Markus/Willy paid no fees, it may have been an insider, and it may have paid with non-existent money, as the report argues. In that case, perhaps Markus/Willy expected to get the money later from the Chinese partner; but the latter defaulted, or could not transfer the money due to the PBoC restrictions.
If you checked the totals, here is what the arbitrager had to have:
Total BTC bought: 268132.73433409
Total USD spent: $111,770,744.48
May 25, 2014, 03:51:44 PM
I dunno what to think. The current formation looks like a top with a bear flag (and we are currently in the flag) But it also feels bullish Do you think we might fall out of the bear flag for a leg down and then maybe continue the up trend?
Do you think we might fall out of the bear flag for a leg down and then maybe continue the up trend? 
May 25, 2014, 03:50:43 PM
Another explanation for the Willy robot is that it was doing arbitrage with China. Namely, buying cheap coins at MtGOX and sending them to a partner in China, who sold them there (presumably at BTC-China) for a higher price.
Indeed, the report argues that Markus must have been the cause of the August rally because the price at MtGOX jumped up whenever Markus bought, and remained flat between his buys. But the price at BTC-China increased steadily through August. This suggestst that BTC-China was leading, and MtGOX was following, by discrete jumps, through Markus's arbitrage.
I have not looked carefully at Sep-Nov, but it seems that there too China (ultimately including Huobi and OKCoin, besides BTC-China) was leading, and Markus/Willy were following.
All that one-sided arbitrage would have required an awful amount (hundreds of millions?) of USD in the arbitrager's MtGOX account. Since Markus/Willy paid no fees, it may have been an insider, and it may have paid with non-existent money, as the report argues. In that case, perhaps Markus/Willy expected to get the money later from the Chinese partner; but the latter defaulted, or could not transfer the money due to the PBoC restrictions.
Indeed, the report argues that Markus must have been the cause of the August rally because the price at MtGOX jumped up whenever Markus bought, and remained flat between his buys. But the price at BTC-China increased steadily through August. This suggestst that BTC-China was leading, and MtGOX was following, by discrete jumps, through Markus's arbitrage.
I have not looked carefully at Sep-Nov, but it seems that there too China (ultimately including Huobi and OKCoin, besides BTC-China) was leading, and Markus/Willy were following.
All that one-sided arbitrage would have required an awful amount (hundreds of millions?) of USD in the arbitrager's MtGOX account. Since Markus/Willy paid no fees, it may have been an insider, and it may have paid with non-existent money, as the report argues. In that case, perhaps Markus/Willy expected to get the money later from the Chinese partner; but the latter defaulted, or could not transfer the money due to the PBoC restrictions.
May 25, 2014, 03:49:42 PM
http://willyreport.wordpress.com/
Crash to double digits incoming.
Quote
It needs to be recognized that, whether intentional or not (though plausible ignorance only goes so far), Mt. Gox has effectively been abusing Bitcoin to operate a Ponzi scheme for at least a year. The November “bubble” well into the $1000′s – and possibly April’s as well – was driven by hundreds of millions of dollars of fake liquidity pumped into the market out of thin air...
That said, despite everyone’s expectations, it seems unlikely that there will be another huge “bubble”, seeing as they were never “real” in the first place.
That said, despite everyone’s expectations, it seems unlikely that there will be another huge “bubble”, seeing as they were never “real” in the first place.
Crash to double digits incoming.
Am i the only one who finds the accent on this kinda fishy? The whole blog tries to come out as just collection of objective facts, and here he just draws a conclusion about future of the btc price. Kinda weird.
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