Jorge, it is so painfully obvious that you operate under some seriously constrictive, empirically unsustainable assumptions about markets in general and price discovery in particular that it'd be pointless to discuss this topic with you.
Well, please write for the other readers then. "Never underestimate the pleasure people feel when being told something that they already know."
(That was Fermi's IIRC.)
Convince yourself of the unlikeliness of (at least the strong forms of) the EMH, or worse, the RWH, and we talk
I don't believe in the EMH (and can't even imagine how it could be applied to an insubstantial asset like bitcoin).
Also I do not believe that price
is a random process (certainly not for large-scale motions like these). The large drops in the past, and most of the rallies, all had obvious external causes. The Brownian model (with variable variance) is merely the only "technical analysis" model (i.e. model that does not have external factors as inputs) that seems to be validated in practice. Which means that, indeed, I do not see any reason to believe in TA.