Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27664. (Read 26712842 times)
May 22, 2014, 10:22:20 AM
Not so fast. If you take mah87 and take out some letters and add some new ones you get - Jed Mccaleb.
May 22, 2014, 10:20:43 AM
Most of the large moves in the past year had very obvious and plausible explanations. The closing of SilkRoad, the opening of the Chinese market, the Chinese decrees and workarounds, the MtGOX "bug" announement, the Caixin leak and the workarounds, etc..
Please tell me how it was obvious the price would almost half and then bounce straight back after silk road got shut down? Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
One cannot predict, from price analysis or any other way, whether and when there will be further moves against bitcoin by the Chinese government. One can say however that if that happens then the price will probably fall by tens or dollars or more, depending on the severity of the move. And if the PBoC reverses its policy about banks x exchanges, then the price may shoot up by hundreds of dollars. On the other hand one can predict that if another store chain accepts bitcoin through BitPay, then the price will hardly twitch.
Since the last rally was due to the opening of the Chinese market, another rally to 10'000$ would require opening another market even bigger than the Chinese one. Perhaps some big regulatory change would attract big investors in the US or Europe; but who can predict that?
It is not rational to expect that new markets will continue to open at regular intervals, each 10x bigger than the previous one, just because there were three such events before with roughly similar spacing.
Sure. That's a bit of a straw man, though.
Very few people know about bitcoin and few of those own any. Few of those own any real quantity.
The rest is just supply and demand.
For what it's worth, every article you publish brings bitcoin to greater public awareness.
May 22, 2014, 10:14:44 AM
Indeed, and that is the problem: many external factors are sudden and unpredictable, and the magnitude of their effect is largely unpredictable as weel. But, in retrospect ,the causal connections are very clear.
One cannot predict, from price analysis or any other way, whether and when there will be further moves against bitcoin by the Chinese government. One can say however that if that happens then the price will probably fall by tens or dollars or more, depending on the severity of the move. And if the PBoC reverses its policy about banks x exchanges, then the price may shoot up by hundreds of dollars. On the other hand one can predict that if another store chain accepts bitcoin through BitPay, then the price will hardly twitch.
Since the last rally was due to the opening of the Chinese market, another rally to 10'000$ would require opening another market even bigger than the Chinese one. Perhaps some big regulatory change would attract big investors in the US or Europe; but who can predict that?
It is not rational to expect that new markets will continue to open at regular intervals, each 10x bigger than the previous one, just because there were three such events before with roughly similar spacing.
Your whole argument fails here. BTCChina was established in 2011 after the $32 bubble. Bitcoin has been opening to Chinese since that was only $2
May 22, 2014, 10:13:43 AM
May 22, 2014, 10:12:18 AM
I'm going to lose 20 BTC on this ripple drama but hey ho, I raped one of their giveaways for 70 BTC few months ago, can't really complain.
May 22, 2014, 10:10:48 AM
Since the last rally was due to the opening of the Chinese market
Well, I disagree with the premise.
May 22, 2014, 10:00:40 AM
May 22, 2014, 09:49:46 AM
Most of the large moves in the past year had very obvious and plausible explanations. The closing of SilkRoad, the opening of the Chinese market, the Chinese decrees and workarounds, the MtGOX "bug" announement, the Caixin leak and the workarounds, etc..
Please tell me how it was obvious the price would almost half and then bounce straight back after silk road got shut down? Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
One cannot predict, from price analysis or any other way, whether and when there will be further moves against bitcoin by the Chinese government. One can say however that if that happens then the price will probably fall by tens or dollars or more, depending on the severity of the move. And if the PBoC reverses its policy about banks x exchanges, then the price may shoot up by hundreds of dollars. On the other hand one can predict that if another store chain accepts bitcoin through BitPay, then the price will hardly twitch.
Since the last rally was due to the opening of the Chinese market, another rally to 10'000$ would require opening another market even bigger than the Chinese one. Perhaps some big regulatory change would attract big investors in the US or Europe; but who can predict that?
It is not rational to expect that new markets will continue to open at regular intervals, each 10x bigger than the previous one, just because there were three such events before with roughly similar spacing.
May 22, 2014, 09:47:53 AM
May 22, 2014, 09:47:52 AM
Where's our buddy mah?
May 22, 2014, 09:47:09 AM
I have some altcoins
i dont know...to sell them and buy btc or not?
i dont know...to sell them and buy btc or not?
May 22, 2014, 09:44:19 AM
May 22, 2014, 09:40:33 AM
https://ripple.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6862
Not sure if real.
From what I've read on the previous link posted, it seems legit. Jed confirmed his identity with a transaction from his own wallet too.Quote
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA512
Hi Everyone,
I started working on ripple in the summer of 2011. I soon hired Arthur and David to help me. In 2012, I met Chris Larsen. He joined us about 5 months before ripple was launched. Chris, Arthur and I kept 20 billion XRP, of which 9 billion were mine. We gave the remaining 80 billion to OpenCoin.
I have given away and donated some of my 9 billion XRP to charities such as MIRI, Literacy Bridge, Give Directly, Mission Bit and others. I plan to start selling all of my remaining XRP beginning in two weeks. Because I have immense respect for the community members and want to be transparent, I’m publicly announcing this before I start. So just fyi…. xrp sales incoming.
Thanks,
Jed.
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: Keybase OpenPGP v0.1.15
Comment: https://keybase.io/crypto
wsBcBAABCgAGBQJTfXm/AAoJED087Ujnqtv8fIYH/1JYnEkfWkx5gm+KEQk3hMFj
ePdvdDj0lWcaCw4SZIoP46IwincCdOysgaSlc4goUxz4n/sGa1pXUJQVJX8hFo+Y
nISFaEKVdXAUCWfU5TnnZmM4HTGq2KDCVchfyM3pq8BJS8RUIB/rHZ6szNdC69JU
QDWps3ykQNZXB7ct/Ss/Zt94EPYTcTinNuWLV4o2O1pnpui0JfO4fL3zjId3nEmN
AnEnt4HmPC+SRyG1qQJfruHUupMlI5aEVUbqh4yRN0TQv7eHpIXOK8RCOv4jkycJ
t3565HjA8MZ7VoqaClqx/PXlTpnNe1xzZqb/JQOAQEDRXhsk+jh1zRf5ea+sCRk=
=9Ktm
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
I didn't want people to wonder if this was from me or not so I signed it with my public key which can be found and verified here: https://keybase.io/jed/key.asc
source: https://xrptalk.org/topic/2629-selling-my-xrp/
Hash: SHA512
Hi Everyone,
I started working on ripple in the summer of 2011. I soon hired Arthur and David to help me. In 2012, I met Chris Larsen. He joined us about 5 months before ripple was launched. Chris, Arthur and I kept 20 billion XRP, of which 9 billion were mine. We gave the remaining 80 billion to OpenCoin.
I have given away and donated some of my 9 billion XRP to charities such as MIRI, Literacy Bridge, Give Directly, Mission Bit and others. I plan to start selling all of my remaining XRP beginning in two weeks. Because I have immense respect for the community members and want to be transparent, I’m publicly announcing this before I start. So just fyi…. xrp sales incoming.
Thanks,
Jed.
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: Keybase OpenPGP v0.1.15
Comment: https://keybase.io/crypto
wsBcBAABCgAGBQJTfXm/AAoJED087Ujnqtv8fIYH/1JYnEkfWkx5gm+KEQk3hMFj
ePdvdDj0lWcaCw4SZIoP46IwincCdOysgaSlc4goUxz4n/sGa1pXUJQVJX8hFo+Y
nISFaEKVdXAUCWfU5TnnZmM4HTGq2KDCVchfyM3pq8BJS8RUIB/rHZ6szNdC69JU
QDWps3ykQNZXB7ct/Ss/Zt94EPYTcTinNuWLV4o2O1pnpui0JfO4fL3zjId3nEmN
AnEnt4HmPC+SRyG1qQJfruHUupMlI5aEVUbqh4yRN0TQv7eHpIXOK8RCOv4jkycJ
t3565HjA8MZ7VoqaClqx/PXlTpnNe1xzZqb/JQOAQEDRXhsk+jh1zRf5ea+sCRk=
=9Ktm
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
I didn't want people to wonder if this was from me or not so I signed it with my public key which can be found and verified here: https://keybase.io/jed/key.asc
source: https://xrptalk.org/topic/2629-selling-my-xrp/
Not sure if real.
$40.9M at today's price excluding slippage completely (which means he won't make anywhere near that figure). Very nice of him to announce this upfront.
May 22, 2014, 09:33:22 AM
I believe Aminorex's arguments (if I'm not misrepresenting them) are partially based on the inevitability of new streams of fiat being made available that are orders of magnitude greater than the current ones. That can only have one effect. It's not a question of technical or fundamental analysis in that regard.
One cannot compute a p value for that "inevitability". He must be using linear regression analysis on the log price since back then, correct?Or... you could read the news?
May 22, 2014, 09:30:23 AM
https://ripple.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6862
Not sure if real.
From what I've read on the previous link posted, it seems legit. Jed confirmed his identity with a transaction from his own wallet too. Quote
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA512
Hi Everyone,
I started working on ripple in the summer of 2011. I soon hired Arthur and David to help me. In 2012, I met Chris Larsen. He joined us about 5 months before ripple was launched. Chris, Arthur and I kept 20 billion XRP, of which 9 billion were mine. We gave the remaining 80 billion to OpenCoin.
I have given away and donated some of my 9 billion XRP to charities such as MIRI, Literacy Bridge, Give Directly, Mission Bit and others. I plan to start selling all of my remaining XRP beginning in two weeks. Because I have immense respect for the community members and want to be transparent, I’m publicly announcing this before I start. So just fyi…. xrp sales incoming.
Thanks,
Jed.
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: Keybase OpenPGP v0.1.15
Comment: https://keybase.io/crypto
wsBcBAABCgAGBQJTfXm/AAoJED087Ujnqtv8fIYH/1JYnEkfWkx5gm+KEQk3hMFj
ePdvdDj0lWcaCw4SZIoP46IwincCdOysgaSlc4goUxz4n/sGa1pXUJQVJX8hFo+Y
nISFaEKVdXAUCWfU5TnnZmM4HTGq2KDCVchfyM3pq8BJS8RUIB/rHZ6szNdC69JU
QDWps3ykQNZXB7ct/Ss/Zt94EPYTcTinNuWLV4o2O1pnpui0JfO4fL3zjId3nEmN
AnEnt4HmPC+SRyG1qQJfruHUupMlI5aEVUbqh4yRN0TQv7eHpIXOK8RCOv4jkycJ
t3565HjA8MZ7VoqaClqx/PXlTpnNe1xzZqb/JQOAQEDRXhsk+jh1zRf5ea+sCRk=
=9Ktm
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
I didn't want people to wonder if this was from me or not so I signed it with my public key which can be found and verified here: https://keybase.io/jed/key.asc
source: https://xrptalk.org/topic/2629-selling-my-xrp/
Hash: SHA512
Hi Everyone,
I started working on ripple in the summer of 2011. I soon hired Arthur and David to help me. In 2012, I met Chris Larsen. He joined us about 5 months before ripple was launched. Chris, Arthur and I kept 20 billion XRP, of which 9 billion were mine. We gave the remaining 80 billion to OpenCoin.
I have given away and donated some of my 9 billion XRP to charities such as MIRI, Literacy Bridge, Give Directly, Mission Bit and others. I plan to start selling all of my remaining XRP beginning in two weeks. Because I have immense respect for the community members and want to be transparent, I’m publicly announcing this before I start. So just fyi…. xrp sales incoming.
Thanks,
Jed.
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: Keybase OpenPGP v0.1.15
Comment: https://keybase.io/crypto
wsBcBAABCgAGBQJTfXm/AAoJED087Ujnqtv8fIYH/1JYnEkfWkx5gm+KEQk3hMFj
ePdvdDj0lWcaCw4SZIoP46IwincCdOysgaSlc4goUxz4n/sGa1pXUJQVJX8hFo+Y
nISFaEKVdXAUCWfU5TnnZmM4HTGq2KDCVchfyM3pq8BJS8RUIB/rHZ6szNdC69JU
QDWps3ykQNZXB7ct/Ss/Zt94EPYTcTinNuWLV4o2O1pnpui0JfO4fL3zjId3nEmN
AnEnt4HmPC+SRyG1qQJfruHUupMlI5aEVUbqh4yRN0TQv7eHpIXOK8RCOv4jkycJ
t3565HjA8MZ7VoqaClqx/PXlTpnNe1xzZqb/JQOAQEDRXhsk+jh1zRf5ea+sCRk=
=9Ktm
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
I didn't want people to wonder if this was from me or not so I signed it with my public key which can be found and verified here: https://keybase.io/jed/key.asc
source: https://xrptalk.org/topic/2629-selling-my-xrp/
Not sure if real.
May 22, 2014, 09:26:24 AM
I believe Aminorex's arguments (if I'm not misrepresenting them) are partially based on the inevitability of new streams of fiat being made available that are orders of magnitude greater than the current ones. That can only have one effect. It's not a question of technical or fundamental analysis in that regard.
One cannot compute a p value for that "inevitability". He must be using linear regression analysis on the log price since back then, correct? May 22, 2014, 09:26:05 AM
https://ripple.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6862
Not sure if real.
Quote
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA512
Hi Everyone,
I started working on ripple in the summer of 2011. I soon hired Arthur and David to help me. In 2012, I met Chris Larsen. He joined us about 5 months before ripple was launched. Chris, Arthur and I kept 20 billion XRP, of which 9 billion were mine. We gave the remaining 80 billion to OpenCoin.
I have given away and donated some of my 9 billion XRP to charities such as MIRI, Literacy Bridge, Give Directly, Mission Bit and others. I plan to start selling all of my remaining XRP beginning in two weeks. Because I have immense respect for the community members and want to be transparent, I’m publicly announcing this before I start. So just fyi…. xrp sales incoming.
Thanks,
Jed.
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: Keybase OpenPGP v0.1.15
Comment: https://keybase.io/crypto
wsBcBAABCgAGBQJTfXm/AAoJED087Ujnqtv8fIYH/1JYnEkfWkx5gm+KEQk3hMFj
ePdvdDj0lWcaCw4SZIoP46IwincCdOysgaSlc4goUxz4n/sGa1pXUJQVJX8hFo+Y
nISFaEKVdXAUCWfU5TnnZmM4HTGq2KDCVchfyM3pq8BJS8RUIB/rHZ6szNdC69JU
QDWps3ykQNZXB7ct/Ss/Zt94EPYTcTinNuWLV4o2O1pnpui0JfO4fL3zjId3nEmN
AnEnt4HmPC+SRyG1qQJfruHUupMlI5aEVUbqh4yRN0TQv7eHpIXOK8RCOv4jkycJ
t3565HjA8MZ7VoqaClqx/PXlTpnNe1xzZqb/JQOAQEDRXhsk+jh1zRf5ea+sCRk=
=9Ktm
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
I didn't want people to wonder if this was from me or not so I signed it with my public key which can be found and verified here: https://keybase.io/jed/key.asc
source: https://xrptalk.org/topic/2629-selling-my-xrp/
Hash: SHA512
Hi Everyone,
I started working on ripple in the summer of 2011. I soon hired Arthur and David to help me. In 2012, I met Chris Larsen. He joined us about 5 months before ripple was launched. Chris, Arthur and I kept 20 billion XRP, of which 9 billion were mine. We gave the remaining 80 billion to OpenCoin.
I have given away and donated some of my 9 billion XRP to charities such as MIRI, Literacy Bridge, Give Directly, Mission Bit and others. I plan to start selling all of my remaining XRP beginning in two weeks. Because I have immense respect for the community members and want to be transparent, I’m publicly announcing this before I start. So just fyi…. xrp sales incoming.
Thanks,
Jed.
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: Keybase OpenPGP v0.1.15
Comment: https://keybase.io/crypto
wsBcBAABCgAGBQJTfXm/AAoJED087Ujnqtv8fIYH/1JYnEkfWkx5gm+KEQk3hMFj
ePdvdDj0lWcaCw4SZIoP46IwincCdOysgaSlc4goUxz4n/sGa1pXUJQVJX8hFo+Y
nISFaEKVdXAUCWfU5TnnZmM4HTGq2KDCVchfyM3pq8BJS8RUIB/rHZ6szNdC69JU
QDWps3ykQNZXB7ct/Ss/Zt94EPYTcTinNuWLV4o2O1pnpui0JfO4fL3zjId3nEmN
AnEnt4HmPC+SRyG1qQJfruHUupMlI5aEVUbqh4yRN0TQv7eHpIXOK8RCOv4jkycJ
t3565HjA8MZ7VoqaClqx/PXlTpnNe1xzZqb/JQOAQEDRXhsk+jh1zRf5ea+sCRk=
=9Ktm
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
I didn't want people to wonder if this was from me or not so I signed it with my public key which can be found and verified here: https://keybase.io/jed/key.asc
source: https://xrptalk.org/topic/2629-selling-my-xrp/
Not sure if real.
May 22, 2014, 09:21:17 AM
I believe Aminorex's arguments (if I'm not misrepresenting them) are partially based on the inevitability of new streams of fiat being made available that are orders of magnitude greater than the current ones. That can only have one effect. It's not a question of technical or fundamental analysis in that regard.
May 22, 2014, 09:18:46 AM
How much do you expect to pay for your lunch a year from now: in euros, and in bitcoin?
I clipped the context, since your question was non sequitur, presumptively because you found directly addressing the point to be inconvenient.
Today I would expect to pay 15 euros. In 1 year, between 16 and 18 euros.
Today I would expect to pay 0.04 btc. In 1 year, between 0.004 and 0.002 btc.
The methods used to arrive at both results have similar numerical and statistical qualities, including p values and precision.
The most notable differences are the relative deviation and the scale and direction of the trend.
I basically agree with your euro estimate; not because of past price history, but because there are very large players who are supposed to keep its price stable, apart from a little inflation, and have at least some reason to want to do that.
There are no such entities for bitcoin (that is one thing that the charts do prove). There is no capital or dividends, so its value is entirely based on short-term speculation and the hope of it being adopted as medium of exchange. Speculation is holding itself in mid-air by its bootstraps, and its price may jump up or down unpredictably by external events, that are clearly not tied to the price history. Adoption may well not happen, and if it happens no one can tell how much or how soon. So the bitcoin price of a meal in May 2015 can be anything.
Sorry Georgey-Boy, your FUD is losing steam.
May 22, 2014, 09:13:53 AM
How much do you expect to pay for your lunch a year from now: in euros, and in bitcoin?
I clipped the context, since your question was non sequitur, presumptively because you found directly addressing the point to be inconvenient.
Today I would expect to pay 15 euros. In 1 year, between 16 and 18 euros.
Today I would expect to pay 0.04 btc. In 1 year, between 0.004 and 0.002 btc.
The methods used to arrive at both results have similar numerical and statistical qualities, including p values and precision.
The most notable differences are the relative deviation and the scale and direction of the trend.
I basically agree with your euro estimate; not because of past price history, but because there are very large players who are supposed to keep its price stable, apart from a little inflation, and have at least some reason to want to do that.
There are no such entities for bitcoin (that is one thing that the charts do prove). There is no capital or dividends, so its value is entirely based on short-term speculation and the hope of it being adopted as medium of exchange. Speculation is holding itself in mid-air by its bootstraps, and its price may jump up or down unpredictably by external events, that are clearly not tied to the price history. Adoption may well not happen, and if it happens no one can tell how much or how soon. So the bitcoin price of a meal in May 2015 can be anything.
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