Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27733. (Read 26711563 times)
May 16, 2014, 08:00:45 AM
May 16, 2014, 07:59:56 AM
^^^ notice the difference between the two charts: In 2013 there was a spike down from 100 to 80 after the bottom but it immediately rebounded back up and spent all of the consolidation time near the high of 100 rather than near 80. In 2014 there is a spike down from 540 to 420 but there was no rebound and it is spending all of its consolidation time near 420 and nowhere close to 540.
In 2014 the spike down was from 440 to 340. It rebounded and the consolidation is here now.
May 16, 2014, 07:59:41 AM
Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.
No it was based on all your other posts. This post was actually bullish. That is what made me take note. Someone, who thus far was predicting the end of the world as we know it, switching to an (exponential) uptrend. I thought that was worthy to be mentioned
If the above is your opinion I retract my post. I certainly haven't read all your post but always got the impression you were just outright negative concerning the future (short term or long) of Bitcoin. (The fact that I didn't like the vast majority of your arguments can't have helped either). Therefore your username was labeled permabear in my head for quite a while.
May 16, 2014, 07:58:38 AM
I am by no means an expert in chart analysis or indicators. But when I look at the 3d chart and the RSI indicator all I see is the fractal repeating itself one more time:
I find this chart particular interesting because there are other indicators the could point to trend reversal (such as the way we have been right at the top of the descending channel and possibly even broken out a few times).
Looking across the 3 sections where we have been overbought you notice that the volume has increased every time. It don't think this means anything... It is just because Kraken has gotten more customers (which of course is a good thing
) If you think my interpretation is wrong then please enlighten me.
I find this chart particular interesting because there are other indicators the could point to trend reversal (such as the way we have been right at the top of the descending channel and possibly even broken out a few times).
Looking across the 3 sections where we have been overbought you notice that the volume has increased every time. It don't think this means anything... It is just because Kraken has gotten more customers (which of course is a good thing
) If you think my interpretation is wrong then please enlighten me. 
May 16, 2014, 07:55:39 AM
Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.
No it was based on all your other posts. This post was actually bullish. That is what made me take note. Someone, who thus far was predicting the end of the world as we know it, switching to an (exponential) uptrend. I thought that was worthy to be mentioned
Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.
And you just realized that ?
May 16, 2014, 07:53:09 AM
3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.
It was like this after the bottom last summer too. People don't want to sell any more at this price. Now we just have to wait for the bears to turn into bulls again.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
No, not really. Actually, not similar at all.
...
I'm talking about the volume.
Me too.
Which of those two look more like "Volume is slowly picking up again a month after the bottom" to you?
Possibly the 'reversal' is more stretched out this time, because the entire correction was more stretched out, so I'm not taking the above as proof that we must go down again. I'm just pointing out that, so far, they look pretty dissimilar to me.
You need to look at Gox which was the biggest exchange in 2013.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
No, I don't. By July / August, gox was in hot water already, and it reflected in volume. More specifically, April 2013 was gox volume in full glory, by the middle of the year they had already taken a hit. I guess to do this the right way, we'd have to sum over gox, stamp, btce and btcchina, but I can't bring myself to do it for such little gain.
May 16, 2014, 07:52:41 AM
Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.
No it was based on all your other posts. This post was actually bullish. That is what made me take note. Someone, who thus far was predicting the end of the world as we know it, switching to an (exponential) uptrend. I thought that was worthy to be mentioned
Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.
And you just realized that ?
May 16, 2014, 07:50:41 AM
Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.
And you just realized that ?
May 16, 2014, 07:48:41 AM
According to my data, the number of new users learning about Bitcoin is still decreasing.
(This is an index number based on statistics from websites/webpages explaining about bitcoin.)
http://btc.pizzacat.net/threerabbitswithhatssittingonsantaslapdancingrockettothemoon/learnaboutbtc.png
Today's index (not plotted here but on hourly chart) looks like it's going to be a new yearly low for a Friday.
(This is an index number based on statistics from websites/webpages explaining about bitcoin.)
http://btc.pizzacat.net/threerabbitswithhatssittingonsantaslapdancingrockettothemoon/learnaboutbtc.png
Today's index (not plotted here but on hourly chart) looks like it's going to be a new yearly low for a Friday.
May 16, 2014, 07:47:40 AM
^^^ notice the difference between the two charts: In 2013 there was a spike down from 100 to 80 after the bottom but it immediately rebounded back up and spent all of the consolidation time near the high of 100 rather than near 80. In 2014 there is a spike down from 540 to 420 but there was no rebound and it is spending all of its consolidation time near 420 and nowhere close to 540.
May 16, 2014, 07:46:16 AM
Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.
No it was based on all your other posts. This post was actually bullish. That is what made me take note. Someone, who thus far was predicting the end of the world as we know it, switching to an (exponential) uptrend. I thought that was worthy to be mentioned
May 16, 2014, 07:45:52 AM
Walls are getting pretty steep...
May 16, 2014, 07:41:29 AM
3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.
It was like this after the bottom last summer too. People don't want to sell any more at this price. Now we just have to wait for the bears to turn into bulls again.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
No, not really. Actually, not similar at all.
...
I'm talking about the volume.
Me too.
Which of those two look more like "Volume is slowly picking up again a month after the bottom" to you?
Possibly the 'reversal' is more stretched out this time, because the entire correction was more stretched out, so I'm not taking the above as proof that we must go down again. I'm just pointing out that, so far, they look pretty dissimilar to me.
You need to look at Gox which was the biggest exchange in 2013.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
May 16, 2014, 07:38:51 AM
Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.
May 16, 2014, 07:33:32 AM
3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.
It was like this after the bottom last summer too. People don't want to sell any more at this price. Now we just have to wait for the bears to turn into bulls again.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
No, not really. Actually, not similar at all.
...
I'm talking about the volume.
Me too.
Which of those two look more like "Volume is slowly picking up again a month after the bottom" to you?
Possibly the 'reversal' is more stretched out this time, because the entire correction was more stretched out, so I'm not taking the above as proof that we must go down again. I'm just pointing out that, so far, they look pretty dissimilar to me.
May 16, 2014, 07:24:24 AM
My new view of the market:
I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.
I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.
Even permabears are drawing uptrends again!
pretty funny how someone can draw an exponential growth curve prediction and still be bearish.
#justbitcointhings
May 16, 2014, 07:23:29 AM
There be dragons
May 16, 2014, 07:15:17 AM
3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.
It was like this after the bottom last summer too. People don't want to sell any more at this price. Now we just have to wait for the bears to turn into bulls again.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
No, not really. Actually, not similar at all.
...
I'm talking about the volume.
May 16, 2014, 07:11:07 AM
My new view of the market:
I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.
I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.
Even permabears are drawing uptrends again!
May 16, 2014, 07:10:11 AM
3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.
It was like this after the bottom last summer too. People don't want to sell any more at this price. Now we just have to wait for the bears to turn into bulls again.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
No, not really. Actually, not similar at all.
I'm pretty much neutral on the question whether the bottom is in or not, but last year, July to be precise, saw a pitch perfect reversal that I picked up comparably easily (and remember making a number of, cautiously, bullish posts about).
This year, assuming the bottom is in fact in, looks much more restrained, bordering on timid, both in volume and price development. I'm sure tera will be quick to jump in pointing to the weekly averages that saw a bearish cross this time vs. no such thing happening last year.
Anyway, the tldr is: last year the bottom was followed by a 2 month period of stable, probably linear (how novel!) growth. This year's "bottom" is followed by sheer stagnation. What conclusion to draw from this is up to you.
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