Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27778. (Read 26710859 times)

Explanation

Chinese Slumber Method (non-)prediction for Monday May 12

There is no prediction for Monday.  In fact there will be no more Chinese Slumber Method (CSM) predictions. [ Waiting for the hoorays to subside. ] A short report about it is in the works, and the conclusions are disappointing: while CSM is more accurate than the banal predictor "tomorrow is like today" (TLT) on about 60% of the days, on the other 40% is so much worse that it loses to TLT, by most other measures.

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Sunday 2014-05-11, 02:04 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-05-11, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~17 hours later)

Foiled again again again by the treacherous Chinese:

Huobi's predicted price: 2823 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2687 CNY
Error: 136 CNY (~22 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 456 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 438 USD
Error: 18 USD
 




[ Plot legend ]
 
NOTE:
  "Erasmus Darwin had a theory that once in a while one should perform a
  damn-fool experiment. It almost always fails, but when it does come
  off is terrific. Darwin played the trombone to his tulips. The result
  of this particular experiment was negative."
    -- J.E.Littlewood

Explanation

You mean signature where mine says "brah?!"  This is open to any member (in settings - look around because I am not sure).

Or is there somewhere else are you talking about?  And I do not think any money can be earned from sigs (if I had to guess) (I see ads asking for people who want to advertise though).
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[edit]:  In response to your comment below mines (rather than reply again).  
Oh I probably am talking about something else.  Not sure about that, but if true, maybe it applies to members sub 2012 or something (who have been here a while).

Explanation

lol ya it's not the most exciting time for bitcoin trading
but i don't find it's been boring for bitcoin itself.

I'm really glad you included boredom on the quiz for today.  This narrow trading range is better than the bottom falling out but is not doing much to enliven the community.

Explanation

Explanation

Mavrodi is just Russian Ponzi.

Something I found on another thread of this forum:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Mavrodi

Other sources say he is a mathematician ("brilliant" even).

[troll]Could Satoshi Nakamoto be ... Sergei Mavrodi? (Hm, what did he do during those four years in Siberia?)[/troll]

Explanation

A new US-based exchange could make investing in bitcoins easier for Americans and that may result in increased demand hence an American bubble like the Chinese one.

However, an American exchange would not give intrinsic value to bitcoin, substantially change its utility, or give it any special advantage over other cryptocoins. (Unless the US government legislates that the Bitcoin protocola is the only authorized cryptocoin protocol, and the Satoshi blockchain is the only legally valid one.)  It would improve liquidity, but not necessarily curb volatility.  It may cause Bitcoin to crash faster...

That is of course what the bitcoin hoarders hope for.  Only that anyone can play god and make his own gold. And that is a good reason to expect that bitcoin will be banned, sooner or later, by every government...

One substantial product of all the computing power wasted on mining is a list of strings whose cryptographic signature starts with several zeros.  I don't know whether and how that could be useful in cryptanalysis, but perhaps...

I am with @CAssius on this one.  I don't see religion or race being the cause of war and hatred.  To me, wars and discrimination are always about material disputes - land, jobs, food, gold, oil, etc.  Religion, race, language, politics, or nationality are just convenient and effective ways to define who belongs to which gang.

Granted, organized religions certainly used their power to support or even start wars.  And organized churches often got their power by supporting powerful governments.

US racism was clearly a way to prevent the black ex-slaves from competing economically with their former owners and the lower-class whites. 

Racism is not a natural human instinct, quite the opposite.  Whenever widely different "races" got together without race being used for war or discrimination, they have mixed thoroughly within 3-4 generations.

There have been practically no wars in Europe because of hair color, eye color, or fingerprint patters, because splitting gangs on those criteria would split families and groups.  On the other hand, there have been uncountably many wars between feudal states, even when the two sides had the same religion, race, language, everything.

Explanation

He probably thinks about a situation where bitcoin is happily traded on several large exchanges like oil, metals, corn and so on. But just opening up trade on NYMEX for instance, will not do it. One reasons is that bitcoin will be held back as long as possible by the establishment, they start to see the threat. The other and most important reason, is that it depends on the minds of all traders. It is a painful paradigm shift, every actor has to work hard to understand. It is sound money just like gold money or classical gold standard, except now we don't need to talk about it for a period of a hundred years, it is happening. It is hard to envision, it has to take some time. So we can not multiply by 1000 in the blink of a moment.

It always starts slow before it accelerates.

another dump?? the next rally is taking a long time to put its shoes on. 2014 is gonna be such a boring year at this rate.

Your debating skills are impeccable.




I'm surprised you bothered to type that weak statement. It's a half truth and doesn't address my point. I could just as easily say the opposite and be as impotently and vaguely semi-factual as you.

I said war and hate. War and hate. Just because 2 religions coexist doesn't mean they can't, one or both, pump out hatred and call it love. Like hating not only other religions but hating other DENOMINATIONS in the same fucking religion. Like fomenting hate for women, gays, blacks, (name your flavour). Like supporting human slavery. Like ordering the death of people who say naughty things or don't follow arbitrary rules. You know, hate.




Or, religion does cause war and hate but it simply looks like a convenient peg to you. Your strawman efforts with regard to skin colour is ineffective and amateurish. I never said religion was "the" cause, and skin color *is* a cause for hate and war, like it or not.

Here's a recent war over skin color:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jul/06/mali-war-over-skin-colour

Religion is listed as 1st example of irrational causes of war:
"The Reasons for Wars – an Updated Survey"; 2009
Matthew O. Jackson: Department of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford,
California
www.stanford.edu/~jacksonm/war-overview.pdf

Religion was the cause for these wars:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religious_war

If it tickles your fancy, argue with me that religion isn't the 2nd biggest cause for war and hate beyond resources, as I stated, but trying to argue religion isn't a cause of war and hate only makes you look uneducated. Your deprivation argument doesn't hold up either so you may want to abandon it before I bring up the Holy Roman Empire or perhaps George Bush's Crusade. Oops...