Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27841. (Read 26709919 times)
May 06, 2014, 04:59:10 PM
In the last few months many, many calms before storms have been called. The end result so far has either been sideways boredom or a bit of a fall.
May 06, 2014, 04:55:50 PM
Ripple +15% after fidor bank announcment. Too bad for close minded people.
May 06, 2014, 04:50:02 PM
The market has continued to be pretty flat over the past days. Really starting to feel like the calm before the storm
I was wondering, do we always have a "calm before the storm?" I seem to remember right before the last run we had a big sell off because of the Silk Road closure but it was not really calm. Feedback from the veterans would be appreciated on this.
May 06, 2014, 04:40:53 PM
The market has continued to be pretty flat over the past days. Really starting to feel like the calm before the storm
May 06, 2014, 04:29:22 PM
Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday May 07
Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-05-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2672 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 430 USD
[ Plot legend ]
The data point for today May/05 was very good (S = 0.0011, W = 0.974). It was signficantly above the previously assumed trend, so it seems that the trend was broken again. With only one data point, we must use the banal "tomorrow like today" prediction.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.22 CNY/USD. Its value was 6.23 today (May/06), but 6.18 yesterday, and 6.16, 6.17, 6.08, 6.11, 6.22 on the previous good sample times.
Checking the previous prediction
Prediction was posted on: Monday 2014-05-04, 21:33 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-05-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~22 hours later)
The predicition for Huobi was not that wrong, considering the swings of the day:
Huobi's predicted price: 2635 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2672 CNY
Error: 37 CNY (~6 USD)
The prediction for Bitstamp was more accurate, due to an unexpected change in the R factor:
Bitstamp's predicted price: 427 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 429 USD
Error: 2 USD
NOTE: There is nothing notable today.
Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-05-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2672 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 430 USD
[ Plot legend ]
The data point for today May/05 was very good (S = 0.0011, W = 0.974). It was signficantly above the previously assumed trend, so it seems that the trend was broken again. With only one data point, we must use the banal "tomorrow like today" prediction.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.22 CNY/USD. Its value was 6.23 today (May/06), but 6.18 yesterday, and 6.16, 6.17, 6.08, 6.11, 6.22 on the previous good sample times.
Checking the previous prediction
Prediction was posted on: Monday 2014-05-04, 21:33 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-05-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~22 hours later)
The predicition for Huobi was not that wrong, considering the swings of the day:
Huobi's predicted price: 2635 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2672 CNY
Error: 37 CNY (~6 USD)
The prediction for Bitstamp was more accurate, due to an unexpected change in the R factor:
Bitstamp's predicted price: 427 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 429 USD
Error: 2 USD
NOTE: There is nothing notable today.
May 06, 2014, 04:26:09 PM
Thanks. So another way of putting this might be:
"Not sure about bitcoin. By the way, recession in 12 months."
"Not sure about bitcoin. By the way, recession in 12 months."
That would be an accurate interpretation. I tend to use maximum entropy defaults and focus on statements about swaps/spreads, so I put it another way.
May 06, 2014, 04:07:41 PM
Adam is my default Leader..I follow him blindly...except for when his resolve waivers and he'll try to sell his bitcoin to pay bills.
May 06, 2014, 04:05:22 PM
Chinese markets were open as early as 2011 so your mistaken [ in relating them to the Oct/2013 bubble ]. .
Are you refering to BTC-China? When did Huobi and OKCoin open? On Bitcoinwisdom, BTC-China's data starts 2011-06-09 with ~1.5 BTC/day, OKCoin's data starts on 2013-06-12 with 0.004 BTC/day, Huobi's starts on 2013-09-01 with 134 BTC/day. BTC-China always charged trading fees; I am not sure about OKCoin, but I think I read that they initially charged fees until Huobi came up with its zero-fee policy and they had to follow. So maybe it was the zero-fee trading by Huobi, specifically, that attracted the Chinese habitual speculators.
dude have you heard of Google? http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-exchange-btc-china-eliminates-trading-fees/
They opened with 0.3%, then in September of 2013 dropped it to 0% in hopes of cementing their control of the market. I believe the owner Bobby then re-instated fees after faking volumes cries came out and the PBoC rulings became clearer... and then re-instated zero fees again http://www.coindesk.com/btc-china-drop-fees-adding-btc-ltc-trading-option/
( I admit better than the 3.0% I have to pay to do a buy/sell move @ CaVirtEx but low volume exchanges with proper security help me sleep at night )
May 06, 2014, 04:04:55 PM
nope its back above 430 all is well again!!
Please stop this, its boring to watch every single move.We all have and can read charts ... get a life my friend
This is literally his thread.
Adam is on topic!
May 06, 2014, 04:01:43 PM
nope its back above 430 all is well again!!
Please stop this, its boring to watch every single move.We all have and can read charts ... get a life my friend
This is literally his thread.
May 06, 2014, 04:00:56 PM
May 06, 2014, 03:47:03 PM
nope its back above 430 all is well again!!
Please stop this, its boring to watch every single move.We all have and can read charts ... get a life my friend
nice!
May 06, 2014, 03:40:23 PM
Choice FUD4U: Without Emptygox artificially inflating the price by disallowing SWIFT withdrawals (as happened since April 2013) and thus dragging up all the other markets thanks to its former market leader role, will it be as easy?
He played a much larger role in the april and the latest bullrun than any of you people know. Now you will see what the market price is without a desperat clown trying to recover his missing coins.
May 06, 2014, 03:21:42 PM
nope its back above 430 all is well again!!
Please stop this, its boring to watch every single move.We all have and can read charts ... get a life my friend
Does having a weekly OT battle count as a life?
There is no life without bitcoin
[Sits at his computer continually refreshing bitcoinwisdom
]Well I'm doing that, too, but when price action is zzz, you gotta have something to pass the time.
May 06, 2014, 03:19:42 PM
nope its back above 430 all is well again!!
Please stop this, its boring to watch every single move.We all have and can read charts ... get a life my friend
Does having a weekly OT battle count as a life?
There is no life without bitcoin
[Sits at his computer continually refreshing bitcoinwisdom
]
May 06, 2014, 03:17:43 PM
nope its back above 430 all is well again!!
Please stop this, its boring to watch every single move.We all have and can read charts ... get a life my friend
Does having a weekly OT battle count as a life?
There is no life without bitcoin
[Sits at his computer continually refreshing bitcoinwisdom
] May 06, 2014, 03:16:17 PM
nope its back above 430 all is well again!!
Please stop this, its boring to watch every single move.We all have and can read charts ... get a life my friend
Does having a weekly OT battle count as a life?
May 06, 2014, 03:10:00 PM
How is Huobi higher than Stamp!?? 
May 06, 2014, 03:06:46 PM
nope its back above 430 all is well again!!
Please stop this, its boring to watch every single move.We all have and can read charts ... get a life my friend
May 06, 2014, 03:04:32 PM
nope its back above 430 all is well again!!
Please stop this, its boring to watch every single move.We all have and can read charts ... get a life my friend
Oops, I think you clicked on the wrong thread.
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