Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27843. (Read 26709819 times)

You're starting on a strangely simplistic premise, that "the Chinese" bought up a number of coins, have been hoarding them, and are now (slowly? not so slowly?) selling them off one by one, depressing the price.

It is probably more instructive to think of this in terms of supply/demand, which practically seems to mean: in terms of volume. (EDIT: /actual/ volume, not inflated one, hence the entire discussion in here how much we can trust volume on the Chinese exchanges). The relation between volume and supported price is complex, and I make no claim to fully understand it, but in a thread of my own I did some back-of-the-napkin calculations looking at volume on Western exchanges over the last months, arriving at a price target of 250 to 350. As in: if China drops out entirely, the current volume on Bitstamp+Btc-e+Bitfinex supports a price between 250-350, under the assumption that USD volume is a rough predictor of USD/BTC together with the conservative (and probably wrong) estimate that the lowest supported price per coin is related to an average of USD volume of the recent period by a constant.

thought it was funny so i share

GIGO

Garbage in, garbage out

Jorge has been wooed by Chinas pretty volume numbers and actually thinks they own 90% of the coins.

Explanation

Okay well for a start Chinese markets were open as early as 2011 so your mistaken there.

Right and you don't think an exchanges price rising has an effect of dragging the others up. Yes it was 10% higher a lot of the time but the fact is when there is a decline in price as was seen mid to late last year because you couldn't get fiat out people would catch the falling knife quicker and thus would hold up other exchanges. As you have seen over the last several months arbitrage holds exchanges prices closely together so you don't have to be a brain surgeon to see the effect this has on the overall market.


Thats because you weren't involved with Bitcoin earlier than last year. The only thing people like you had to say about BTC was its just used for buying drugs theres no other reason for it etc etc. Well look , the price didn't go to $0 as many were trying to say guess what that does? All the detractors who wrote it off as drug money are suddenly very interested, I mean how can something that was only used to buy drugs have value outside of drugs  

Really with the same old rhetoric ? The dollar and its ponzi scheme is the coin of crime.

Silk Road was open in 2011 so no. Your research is terrible and it makes your points almost laughable. How can I take you views seriously when you can't even find out when Silk Road opened, its even got a Wikipedia page.


The market went from 2 to 30, 15 - 266 in those sorts of time frames as well. Whats your point? It doesn't need earth shattering developments. Just like your seeing now good news came out and developments were happening all the time in the run up to November but the price hardly moves then all of a sudden the price starts rising. All the bears stand around wondering why even though they've just sat around for two months listening to all the developments, no doubt the same will happen this time. You seem to think the market is 100% speculation and needs 'news' to move. The market can move by normal dynamics such as adoption as well you know.

As it currently stands millions of dollars of vc funds and normal investors are building Bitcoin businesses, everyday those services open and gain a wider customer base. In time no doubt the price will rise again to accommodate this and you will be one of those screaming it back down saying how irrational it is. Its very easy to be like you in a bear market I can't wait to see what nonsense you produce in a bull one.

Correct.  The broad market model gives me roughly an 12% edge on directional r2k futures positions over 1 month.  The BTC model is not mature enough to measure accurately.  The more parameters in your model, the more data you need to avoid overfit.  BTC doesn't have enough history to provide useful quality metrics on a scale more than a few hours, for models of this complexity.  I've tried to use some tricks to avoid overfit, but I can't yet quantify my success or failure in that regard, for the current model, with a usable p value.

1/10th

Agreed, that "10x demand" is just a very rough guess, based not only on the price increase but also on the demographics of the market as some articles have described it (not nerds, but mostly amateur speculators with no computer expertise, who used to speculate on other things - a profile that seems to be common in China but not in the US).

What is your guess for the number of coins that Chinese speculators have bought to speculate with -- 2x, or 50x, the Western number? 

I won in three words. That's got to be a record!

EDIT: Well, I guess 4 technically.

I repeat: every move of the price since Oct/2013 correlates with events in China, starting with the opening of the Mainland Chinese market a couple of months before. The crash of early december, the recovery in late decenber/january, the decline since february - all can be explained with China only, with no obvious sign of influence from Western events.

Understandably, bitcoin enthusiasts and entrepreneurs in the West must hate the idea that bitcoin price is set by Chinese speculators, at the mercy of an extremely "statist" foreign government.  How can you promise profits and security to investors in that context?

That came only after the Oct/Nov rally.  By early december there were still many who claimed that MtGOX withrawals were mostly working, only a bit slow.

The dollar withdrawal delays explained why MtGOX prices were 10% higher than those in other exchanges, but they cannot possibly explain the 1000% increase.

I cannot follow that reasoning.  The busting of SR made people realize that bitcoin transactions were not invisible to the FBI at all. How could that have helped other uses?

The "cleansing"of bitcoin's image (which did not actually happen, it is still the "coin of crime" for many people)  cannot possibly explain a rise of 1000% in 2 months.  "Other uses" could not and did not expand that fast.  The Chinese market could and did.

By the way, I still don't know what caused the April/2013 jump.  Some said it was videos on YouTube; perhaps.  Could it have been the opening of the illegal drug market by SilkRoad?  Or was it the initial opening of the non-Mainland Chinese market by BTC-China?

No, only that the "positive" things that happened outside China had very small effect, because they were relevant to only a small part of the market.  Why would the Chinese care about things like Overstock or SMBIT?

Besides, the rise from 100$ to 1000$ took less than 2 months.  What earth-shaking bitcoin developments happened in that interval?

Moreover many of those "positive" things were just vaporware or fizzled, and others had a negative impact when they failed.   

What? Mkay Bye bye

Strawman. Try again.

So if the sign of the almighty $ would be printed on this bag you'd call him bull troll?

Incorrigible bull troll is incorrigible.

Explanation

Who are the sponsors?  I saw a page that mentioned a company with apparent Chinese ownership and with ".pe" (Peruvian) domain, but never heard of them before.

4h bitstamp 30day EMA-indicator follows since 2 days nearly exactly an 6-month trendline!?


 

 
 

it takes both  enormous bubble that needs to deflate and  bad news weekly. to really do some damage to the all mighty value creator that is bitcoin



you know it true....