Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27842. (Read 26709893 times)

$2100,- at the end of august?


2 DA MOON.

Are you refering to BTC-China?  When did Huobi and OKCoin open?

On Bitcoinwisdom, BTC-China's data starts 2011-06-09 with ~1.5 BTC/day, OKCoin's data starts on 2013-06-12 with 0.004 BTC/day, Huobi's starts on 2013-09-01 with 134 BTC/day.  BTC-China always charged trading fees; I am not sure about OKCoin, but I think I read that they initially charged fees until Huobi came up with its zero-fee policy and they had to follow.  So maybe it was the zero-fee trading by Huobi, specifically, that attracted the Chinese habitual speculators.


There can't possibly be other people like me.  

It is not me who is saying that "bitcoin is the coin of crime", that is still a common perception out there.  But on the other hand, based on what people write here and in other forums, I would think that at least 10% of the bitcoin enthusiasts still love it because they (naively) think that it will allow them to make illegal payments and protect their illegal money from confiscation. ("Illegal" here in the literal sense of "prohibited by the laws of the land and times."  That includes tax evasion, bribes, contributing to outlaw organizations, etc.)

Well, then that leaves only BTC-China and those YouTube videos.

By the way, Wikipedia says that "Company CEO Bobby Lee [ who had experience in Yahoo Exclamation and Walmart China ] approached the then two-person company in early 2013, and after investing his own money and attracting investors, oversaw the company's rapid expansion and marketshare growth by the end of the year."  Which seems to fit quite nicely with the timing of the April 2013 bubble...

The bitcoin market now is still probably >95% speculation.  Dumping by miners and buying for long-term investment must be a small fraction of the exchange's volume, and buying for use in commerce must be almost nil.

I agree that mere "news" have little influence in the market.   The things that moved the market since Dec/2013 were not "news" but hard facts (sometimes false): the December five-agency decree, the Huobi and OKCoin workarounds, the "bug in bitcoin", the bank account closures.  News were merely the channel through which the market learned the facts.  

On the other hand, many of the "positive developments" that people keep mentioning here were just news (rather: thinly edited commercial press releases) which did not materialize.  

I see venture capital and established investors shunning bitcoin per se and investing instead in services like Bitpay, bitcoin fund management (SMBIT, PBP), and exchanges, which are profitable independently of the price of bitcoin.

Bitpay for example claimed to have made 100 M$ of payments last year.  Their revenue is the fees on that, a few million dollars.  They must still be lucrative in spite of the 50% BTC price loss since January.   But how much of that volume is new bitcoin adopters, and how much is bitcoiners who have piles of cheap old BTC and are spending some of them?

EDIT fix bad [ quote ] marks

emphasis mine.

This is a dirty, underhanded way of calculating fees. the fees that market maker is charged should not be determined by the market takers.

How would I prefer it to work? Just look at CaVirtex as an example. when you place the order, you pay a fee. both the fee and the order are placed in escrow until the order is filled. if you cancel your order, both the amount of the order plus the fee are refunded to your account. - simple system, easy accounting.

Hopefully this is just a bad implementation of their processes, but it is a very shady set-up regardless of how it came about.

That's hilarious.

, made me lol.

Explanation

True.  And if China dumped their tsys on the market, interest rates would go over 100%.  Both are counter-productive behaviours, and hence unlikely.  Actually, the China scenario is more likely, because it could be a rational move, in a trade war or a shooting war.  Dumping a million BTC is extremely unlikely to be a rational move, ever.

1) Supply in reserve is not supply to the market.
2) Whether the PBoC wants bitcoin or not, the Chinese people want bitcoin.  I frankly wasn't counting on the PBoC being a buyer for another 5 years or so.

I general I agree that the last bubble was largely China-driven.  This is normal.  There is always something that drives the bubble, and something that drives the decompression that follows.  Every time a bubble occurs, it is indicative of more fiat finding its way into BTC.  The 2011 superbubble -- correct me if I err -- was driven by the opening of Mt.Gox, a stable exchange (at the time).  That removed the barriers for a large tranche of fiat to flow into BTC.  It seems obvious that the next bubble will occur when a new mechanism, lowering the fear, cost and inconvenience barriers, allows a larger influx of fiat precisely at a time when the BTC bonanza meme gets resurrected.  The heartbeat schedule would put that event in the summer.  If it skips a beat, then it would more likely coincide with the opening of ETPs in New York and London.  In that case, it is likely to be another superbubble, because it would facilitate a much much larger money flow than previous channels have allowed.

Meanwhile, we will continue to grind down until all the coins have flowed from weak hands to strong hands.  I keep buying small amounts because I think it is premature to lever, but we are close enough to the bottom so that I see more risk of being caught unawares by a sudden CCMF than I do risk of missing a deep-cutting plunge which increases my buying power substantially.  I don't want to watch the paint dry in hopes of a sudden opportunity -- did that, found it unfruitful in low volatility conditions.  I'd rather just average in near the bottom and leave a modest order in the 350 neighborhood in case I'm lucky.

lmao