Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking &amp; discussion - page 27900. (Read 26631299 times)

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 02:14:27 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 01:57:14 AM

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

Well, I'm bored too, lol.

But I like this bet even less than you. I can't take that bet, but keep coming up with some and I am sure I might bite at one.

How about this: By May 15 GMT midnight, if we've gone over $500 AND below $400 (in either order), you owe me 0.2 BTC and otherwise I owe you 0.1 BTC

So now you are going to take the high volatility side of the bet?

I will take this bet. If only because if we have that much volatility in the market in the next 2 weeks I will make so much that .2 btc won't even matter. And if its boring, then at least I get a .1 btc consolation price. Cheesy

Deal. FWIW I think I have a ~60% of losing, but with a 2:1 payout, it's worth it.

I think you have a 75-80% of losing, so the odds weigh slightly in my favor if so.

I think your best chance is for us to continue up to $500 and then have an exchange get cut off.

I think if we see $400 before May 15th we won't be seeing $500 for a while.

billyjoeallen

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Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 02:35:49 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 02:26:56 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 02:14:27 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 01:57:14 AM

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

Well, I'm bored too, lol.

But I like this bet even less than you. I can't take that bet, but keep coming up with some and I am sure I might bite at one.

How about this: By May 15 GMT midnight, if we've gone over $500 AND below $400 (in either order), you owe me 0.2 BTC and otherwise I owe you 0.1 BTC

So now you are going to take the high volatility side of the bet?

I will take this bet. If only because if we have that much volatility in the market in the next 2 weeks I will make so much that .2 btc won't even matter. And if its boring, then at least I get a .1 btc consolation price. Cheesy

Deal. FWIW I think I have a ~60% chance of losing, but with a 2:1 payout, it's worth it.

windjc

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Quote from: pjviitas on May 01, 2014, 02:25:50 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 02:26:56 AM

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106.

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

If a go long here, ad it goes to 3500, I make $300. if I short here, and it goes to 2500, I make $100. not to mention, I can reverse my position if fundamentals change on the market, I cant reverse my bet. You better offer me 4:1 odds at least or it's not worth my time.

If you make a bet you believe in based on 100% of your posts you make a 100% profit on <15% market move.

Thats better than going long or going short.

You are a fucking idiot.

I'm calling you out on this one just in case anyone reading this thread bought your drivel and excuses.

Is this what the Bitcoin market has been reduced to...sidebets? Pathetic!!!

Pretty much. Grin

windjc

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 02:14:27 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 01:57:14 AM

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

Well, I'm bored too, lol.

But I like this bet even less than you. I can't take that bet, but keep coming up with some and I am sure I might bite at one.

How about this: By May 15 GMT midnight, if we've gone over $500 AND below $400 (in either order), you owe me 0.2 BTC and otherwise I owe you 0.1 BTC

So now you are going to take the high volatility side of the bet?

I will take this bet. If only because if we have that much volatility in the market in the next 2 weeks I will make so much that .2 btc won't even matter. And if its boring, then at least I get a .1 btc consolation price. Cheesy

billyjoeallen

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Activity: 1106

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Hide your women

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 02:14:27 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 01:57:14 AM

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

Well, I'm bored too, lol.

But I like this bet even less than you. I can't take that bet, but keep coming up with some and I am sure I might bite at one.

How about this: By May 15 GMT midnight, if we've gone over $500 AND below $400 (in either order), you owe me 0.2 BTC and otherwise I owe you 0.1 BTC

pjviitas

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Activity: 434

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 02:14:27 AM

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106.

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

If a go long here, ad it goes to 3500, I make $300. if I short here, and it goes to 2500, I make $100. not to mention, I can reverse my position if fundamentals change on the market, I cant reverse my bet. You better offer me 4:1 odds at least or it's not worth my time.

If you make a bet you believe in based on 100% of your posts you make a 100% profit on <15% market move.

Thats better than going long or going short.

You are a fucking idiot.

I'm calling you out on this one just in case anyone reading this thread bought your drivel and excuses.

Is this what the Bitcoin market has been reduced to...sidebets? Pathetic!!!

windjc

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Activity: 2156

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So it is a Chinese holiday - May Day.

I guess that might explain the volume.

Sorta.

windjc

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 01:57:14 AM

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

Well, I'm bored too, lol.

But I like this bet even less than you. I can't take that bet, but keep coming up with some and I am sure I might bite at one.

billyjoeallen

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1007

Hide your women

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 01:57:14 AM

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

freebit13

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I got Satoshi's avatar!

Man, that 3d MACD can really drag its feet!!!!

Davyd05

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May 10th is the day before Mothers Day? The great tulip crash.. abhahaha.. couldn't help but add a pun.

Odd they'd set a date for a weekend deadline or news release though?

windjc

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This is interesting. The buyers have stopped buying during what is normally the busiest trading time of the day in China.

Is it a Chinese holiday? Because, if not, this is some crazy low volume right now.

windjc

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Activity: 2156

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 01:57:14 AM

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

ChartBuddy

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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation

billyjoeallen

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Hide your women

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

Raystonn

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

I'll make a bet. If BTC goes to $0, you win. If BTC goes to $1,000,000 first, I win. I offer 10,000 BTC if you win. But if I win, you just owe me 1.

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 01:23:43 AM

Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 01:21:03 AM

Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 01:21:03 AM

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106.

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

If a go long here, ad it goes to 3500, I make $300. if I short here, and it goes to 2500, I make $100. not to mention, I can reverse my position if fundamentals change on the market, I cant reverse my bet. You better offer me 4:1 odds at least or it's not worth my time.

If you make a bet you believe in based on 100% of your posts you make a 100% profit on <15% market move.

Thats better than doing long or going short.

You are a fucking idiot.

if you dont offer me 1:4 odds, I can use the capital on leverage to make more money on the same bet, at lower risk too. fact. Im not going to stuff around like this.

And the moral of the story here folks is that Chessnut would take money out on leverage to do this trade if he truly believed we were going to break out of this bear market. But he doesn't and so he avoids doing that and he avoids my bet offer.

Always watch what people DO not what they SAY.

There will likely be plenty of opportunities for future bets on the direction of BTC (or its prices), but I really think that if someone feels fairly confident about the direction of the BTC market, that person should be willing to enter into some small bet... even the equivalent of a few dollars.... then no need to worry about escrow or about whether you could be leveraging that money or whatever,.. though it may be safer, even with the equivalent of a few dollars to safeguard it with a third party... ...

If we are in the business of investing in BTC, then we all should have a few dollars that we could spare and even tie up for a period. if we are expressing considerable confidence about our prediction(s)... When it comes to short-term BTC prices, I rarely have my moments of confidence.

windjc

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Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 01:18:13 AM

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106.

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

If a go long here, ad it goes to 3500, I make $300. if I short here, and it goes to 2500, I make $100. not to mention, I can reverse my position if fundamentals change on the market, I cant reverse my bet. You better offer me 4:1 odds at least or it's not worth my time.

If you make a bet you believe in based on 100% of your posts you make a 100% profit on <15% market move.

Thats better than doing long or going short.

You are a fucking idiot.

if you dont offer me 1:4 odds, I can use the capital on leverage to make more money on the same bet, at lower risk too. fact. Im not going to stuff around like this.

And the moral of the story here folks is that Chessnut would take money out on leverage to do this trade if he truly believed we were going to break out of this bear market. But he doesn't and so he avoids doing that and he avoids my bet offer.

Always watch what people DO not what they SAY.

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 01, 2014, 01:16:27 AM

If you use bitcoins as your measuring amount, then if bitcoins go up, the winner will win more and if the price goes down the loser will lose less. So, odds already seem to be built in favor of the one who is betting that the price will go up. No?

Thats true, the odds would be 1:x-15% lets say, 1:4-15%.

I may be missing something, but my point is that if you are betting in BTC... then the BTC will be worth more upon winning and the BTC will be worth less upon losing. Why would you need additional odds, unless you are going to measure the bet in dollars... so say that you want to bet the equivalent of $20. If you pick a small enough amount, then it does NOT really matter about the money, you are purely betting against your nemesis about which one of you is correct about the direction of the market.

chessnut

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