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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27905. (Read 26630471 times)

sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
Blitz:The price affects the perception of the news
I could completely wrong, it is likely that I am, but I think that there are a large number of automated traders on both Bitstamp and BTC-e.  Some while ago these bot-users determined that the Chinese markets could/would serve as nice triggers for the other exchanges.  ++ for a long while it was Gox that served up similar triggers ++

In our increasingly nervous market the bots detect a movement on, say, Houbi and automatically follow suit.  That combination is enough for human traders to climb on the bandwagon and reinforce the initial move.  Then the more rational/reasoned traders counter-move and the initial trajectory is reversed.  

I believe that these oscillations will continue until: 1.  There is no 'other market' that serves up a trigger; or, 2.  Confidence is regained, the nervous market ends, and a true vector forms.

$0.02
Or another possibility: market makers selling BTC short.

I didn't mention whether they were going long or short.  Just that the bots seemed to be following Huobi on the initial movement.

edit:  this latest move appears to have started on Stamp.
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1199

Very nice! Price went up really nicely from last hour.

Are we going to stay with this ++ trend for a day?
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
Ok, i'm giving everyone thumbs up to start buying. My crystall ball says it's time.

(Edit: please noobs, i no nothing more than anyone else, just messing around).

My crystal ball sees Bitcoin-Central as the next exchange to go belly-up. And, for those you love pork bellies or, for that matter, underage boys' bellies, here's another reason I suggest holding off buying for now: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/more-proof-that-savegoxcom-is-a-sham-590970

Paymium's davout, Boussac and Grandval will soon be in damage control mode, meanwhile the media will be all over the paedo- who'll be at the helm of Mt Coxs. Looks like another busy week.

What?
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday May 01

Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-05-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2802 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 450 USD





[ Plot legend ]

Today's data point was quite good (S = 0.0028, W = 0.851), but again below the previous trend line (by 67 CNY).  It is now clear that tere was a break in the trend between Apr/27 and Apr/28 (or, rather, there was no clear trend from Apr/25 to Apr/27).  The last three points Apr/28--30 are good and define a shifted decaying exponential A + B * Q**(d-D0), where (d-D0) is the number of days since Apr/28, A = 2820.80, B = -105.80, and Q = 0.56522.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.23 CNY/USD. It was 6.22 on Apr/30 and 6.25 on Apr/29.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-30, 02:26 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-30, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

The prediction was again too pessimistic because it did not detect the break in the trend:

Huobi's predicted price: 2720 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2787 CNY
Error: 67 CNY (~11 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 439 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 448 USD
Error: 9 USD
 
NOTE:
  "Experience is that marvelous thing that enables you to recognize a
  mistake when you make it again."  -- F. P. Jones
vip
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1043
👻
I could completely wrong, it is likely that I am, but I think that there are a large number of automated traders on both Bitstamp and BTC-e.  Some while ago these bot-users determined that the Chinese markets could/would serve as nice triggers for the other exchanges.  ++ for a long while it was Gox that served up similar triggers ++

In our increasingly nervous market the bots detect a movement on, say, Houbi and automatically follow suit.  That combination is enough for human traders to climb on the bandwagon and reinforce the initial move.  Then the more rational/reasoned traders counter-move and the initial trajectory is reversed. 

I believe that these oscillations will continue until: 1.  There is no 'other market' that serves up a trigger; or, 2.  Confidence is regained, the nervous market ends, and a true vector forms.

$0.02
Or another possibility: market makers selling BTC short.
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1570
Bitcoin: An Idea Worth Spending
Ok, i'm giving everyone thumbs up to start buying. My crystall ball says it's time.

(Edit: please noobs, i no nothing more than anyone else, just messing around).

My crystal ball sees Bitcoin-Central as the next exchange to go belly-up. And, for those you love pork bellies or, for that matter, underage boys' bellies, here's another reason I suggest holding off buying for now: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/more-proof-that-savegoxcom-is-a-sham-590970

Paymium's davout, Boussac and Grandval will soon be in damage control mode, meanwhile the media will be all over the paedo- who'll be at the helm of Mt Coxs. Looks like another busy week.
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Better is just to ignore it.
Shun advice
at any price -
that's what I call
good advice.
-- Piet Hein, /Grooks/
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code


Ah. I remember that monster. The best time to use it is in the middle of the night when there aren't many cars!
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
Blitz:The price affects the perception of the news
I could completely wrong, it is likely that I am, but I think that there are a large number of automated traders on both Bitstamp and BTC-e.  Some while ago these bot-users determined that the Chinese markets could/would serve as nice triggers for the other exchanges.  ++ for a long while it was Gox that served up similar triggers ++

In our increasingly nervous market the bots detect a movement on, say, Houbi and automatically follow suit.  That combination is enough for human traders to climb on the bandwagon and reinforce the initial move.  Then the more rational/reasoned traders counter-move and the initial trajectory is reversed. 

I believe that these oscillations will continue until: 1.  There is no 'other market' that serves up a trigger; or, 2.  Confidence is regained, the nervous market ends, and a true vector forms.

$0.02
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
I want to thank all the fearful for making it much easier to accumulate this afternoon/evening.  Time for dinner.
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1199
Ok, i'm giving everyone thumbs up to start buying. My crystall ball says it's time.

IMO - there is (almost) always good time to buy BTC but not always good time to sell Tongue


^^^^^

  Cheesy I understand you agree with this sentence Smiley As most of us perhaps will.
hero member
Activity: 980
Merit: 1001
Ok, i'm giving everyone thumbs up to start buying. My crystall ball says it's time.

IMO - there is (almost) always good time to buy BTC but not always good time to sell Tongue


^^^^^
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1199
Ok, i'm giving everyone thumbs up to start buying. My crystall ball says it's time.

IMO - there is (almost) always good time to buy BTC but not always good time to sell Tongue
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
Ok, i'm giving everyone thumbs up to start buying. My crystall ball says it's time.

(Edit: please noobs, i no nothing more than anyone else, just messing around).
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1199
See this is what I'm talking about. Why is it that the closer we inch towards the downtrend line where the huge sudden downspikes occur and the traps are about to be sprung, the more bullish people get. It's always at this point people get extra bullish and start making references to trains, etc. Meanwhile it is the worst possible time to trade.

Well I agree that this is not a best time to trade indeed. I am not making any references to trains or rockets yet Tongue as I know price may go down in next hour..
I just think after this boring day 440-450, to see >450 is quite exiting and yes - makes me feel more bullish but I understand that ATM situation is not yet very good Wink
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1010
I'm saying so because I make explicit suggestions every few months.  My last suggestion on this forum was to sell at around 800.

But I think you are asking "why do I think so?"  You can feel the tide turning when you immerse yourself in the datastream.  At the largest granularity, when negative news has no effect, positive news will begin to have a positive effect.  China FUD is exhausted.  Free nations will carry the torch from here, while the Chinese hide the cig in their mouth.

Lots of great stuff happening, too much to recite.  Don't get me wrong, I think the rise may be slow.  It may poke around here a bit; this suggestion is for medium to long term traders.  But it may rebound and THEN be slow.  I think the risk of being out during a pop is becoming greater than the profit for catching another small pullback.  But we may need a small fiat emergency to light the next fuse.  On the other hand nations seem to "schedule" these about once every 18 months so something is coming due...

It might be a little premature to say that China FUD is exhausted. For example, BTC China had only announced stopping of deposit for ONE bank. Until that happens for ALL banks, then China FUD is exhausted. Nonetheless, the market has largely factored in the China FUD.

It is now a question of when the rebound is going to be.

You're right, more accurately I meant the market is exhausted of Chinese central bank announcements.  Those who fear this have probably already sold.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
I'm saying so because I make explicit suggestions every few months.  My last suggestion on this forum was to sell at around 800.

But I think you are asking "why do I think so?"  You can feel the tide turning when you immerse yourself in the datastream.  At the largest granularity, when negative news has no effect, positive news will begin to have a positive effect.  China FUD is exhausted.  Free nations will carry the torch from here, while the Chinese hide the cig in their mouth.

Lots of great stuff happening, too much to recite.  Don't get me wrong, I think the rise may be slow.  It may poke around here a bit; this suggestion is for medium to long term traders.  But it may rebound and THEN be slow.  I think the risk of being out during a pop is becoming greater than the profit for catching another small pullback.  But we may need a small fiat emergency to light the next fuse.  On the other hand nations seem to "schedule" these about once every 18 months so something is coming due...

It might be a little premature to say that China FUD is exhausted. For example, BTC China had only announced stopping of deposit for ONE bank. Until that happens for ALL banks, then China FUD is exhausted. Nonetheless, the market has largely factored in the China FUD.

It is now a question of when the rebound is going to be.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
last call, all aboard



I am very optimistic about what I see and I believe next 24h will bring some more ++.



See this is what I'm talking about. Why is it that the closer we inch towards the downtrend line where the huge sudden downspikes occur and the traps are about to be sprung, the more bullish people get. It's always at this point people get extra bullish and start making references to trains, etc. Meanwhile it is the worst possible time to trade.

But this is exactly why it is possible to make money trading. Why would you complain about this?
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
last call, all aboard



I am very optimistic about what I see and I believe next 24h will bring some more ++.



See this is what I'm talking about. Why is it that the closer we inch towards the downtrend line where the huge sudden downspikes occur and the traps are about to be sprung, the more bullish people get. It's always at this point people get extra bullish and start making references to trains, etc. Meanwhile it is the worst possible time to trade.
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