Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday May 01Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-05-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2802 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 450 USD
[
Plot legend ]
Today's data point was quite good (S = 0.0028, W = 0.851), but again below the previous trend line (by 67 CNY). It is now clear that tere was a break in the trend between Apr/27 and Apr/28 (or, rather, there was no clear trend from Apr/25 to Apr/27). The last three points Apr/28--30 are good and define a shifted decaying exponential A + B * Q**(d-D0), where (d-D0) is the number of days since Apr/28, A = 2820.80, B = -105.80, and Q = 0.56522.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.23 CNY/USD. It was 6.22 on Apr/30 and 6.25 on Apr/29.
Checking the previous predictionPrediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-30, 02:26 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-30, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)
The prediction was again too pessimistic because it did not detect the break in the trend:
Huobi's predicted price: 2720 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2787 CNY
Error: 67 CNY (~11 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 439 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 448 USD
Error: 9 USD
NOTE:
"Experience is that marvelous thing that enables you to recognize a
mistake when you make it again." -- F. P. Jones