Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27998. (Read 26710286 times)

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My point is still valid, and I could give a shit whether a guy has $10 million in liquid assets or $10,000 in liquid assets.

The point of the bet seems to be to put some money where your mouth is, and you do NOT need to prove yourself with a $50K bet, especially when it seems that the $50k aspect of the bet may be getting in the way of making the bet.  $5k remains a meaningful amount b/c it is meaningful to others, and some people could live for a year off of $5k.

Let's take the guy with $10,000 in liquid assets, he could still prove his point by betting $5 (0.05%) rather than by betting $50 (0.5%).  And, don't tell me that the guys with $10 million are treating $50K the same as a guy with $10k is treating $50.  That may be the same percentage (0.5%), but even well to do people are going to begin to put up some barriers when they are throwing around $50k here and there for quasi-random bets on an internet forum.

Part of my point is that the proposed $50k amount of the bet may be getting in the way of finalizing the terms of the bet, and that $50k amount really is NOT necessary, unless the guys are merely wanting to impress people with pompous big balls numbers, that distract from the main point.... which is to put "some" money where you mouth is... with clear terms that everyone can understand.

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday April 27

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-04-27, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2876 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 471 USD





[ Plot legend ]

Today's data point was even weaker than yesterday's (S = 0.0076 W = 0.311), but we must use it anyway to define the new straight-line trend.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/25, A = 2814 and B = +31.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.11 CNY/USD. It was 6.09 today and 6.05 yesterday; althhough those points had low weight, it seems best to use a value near them rather than the values observed before the crash (6.30, 6.28, 6.34, 6.27, 6.25, 6.26).
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-26, 04:04 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-04-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~15 hours later)

The Huobi's "same as yesterday" prediction was rather good:

Huobi's predicted price: 2814 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2845 CNY
Error: 31 CNY (~5 USD)

The Bitstamp prediction was way too low:

Bitstamp's predicted price: 447 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 467 USD
Error: 20 USD

That last prediction used the pre-crash value of R (6.29) instead of the post-crash one (6.05) to transfer from Huobi to Bitstamp.  Had we used R = 6.05, or the "same as yesterday" estimate for Bitstamp too, the prediction would have been 465 USD, only 2 USD off.
 
NOTE: "Be not simply good; be good for something." -- Thoreau

Changing the oil on the lawn mower.  Which I will now do.  But my cell will alarm me if there's interesting action.

Watching your hair grow.

I never saw this thread so quiet...

Anyway... my predictions about +$4 were not right ...
more likely -$4 and then -$7...

Maybe I should just go to sleep Sunday morning will bring some ++ ... perhaps not.
Monday. Yes - this is a day that we are all waiting for

Explanation

$50k or 100 BTC isnt that meaningful when you have 20,000 BTC my friend. Its like 0.5% of your stash, I bet you would take a bet you thought you would win for .25BTC on a 50BTC stash.

Explanation

I believe 30 days is more than enough time to call Rpietila on his request for a bet.  Initially Rpietila's bet request was somewhat general concerning the conditions and the timeline, which Windjc, narrowed some of those terms. 

I like the idea of charity contribution - and maybe it shoudl be better that the charity goes towards some knid of BTC infrastructure or something BTC related (besides a BTC mansion); however, I doubt that the bet needs to be so large as $50K in order to prove the point. 

If someone, such as Rpietila, is asserting that we will "never" see $435 again, then he certainly should feel confident that will NOT occur in the next 30 days.  If the bet is for a smaller amount, let's say $5k or less, then there should be considerable less incentive to manipulate the market (and on honor both parties are already asserting that they will NOT engage in BTC manipulation tactics - which could be included and defined in the bet terms - eg no buying or selling within a certain amount during the time parameters of the bet).

It seems tome that you guys are very close - and really, you should NOT see a lack of balls, to bring down the amount of the bet - b/c the point seems to be putting some stake (not steak) and commitment into the short-term prediction - which does NOT need to be $50K, in order to be meaningful.

It is rising! I can see it with my magnifying glass!!

In next hour I predict +$4

Explanation

Manipulation is easy to see. For instance, the markets are following Houbi. If they act out of accord with Houbi all of a sudden with a big dump or buy, then its pretty obvious.  Rpeitila cares about his reputation. A LOT. So much so, that I don't think he would openly cheat in this case.

As for me, I am a long term bull. It would be a huge risk to short that many BTC.   I'd have to wire addition funds onto the market, as I am pretty much full fiat at the moment. In fact, I have buy orders in right now, not sell orders.

Im positioned against my own bet at the moment. And I would not change those, because I believe they will get filled on the way to 435.

+1

At 30 days the bet is already at a real risk of ending in a tie. At 90 days, under the original conditions, that's almost guaranteed.

The way I see it, this bet is about making a rather strong, unconditional statement in the middle of a crucial time for the market. At 30 days, it does that just fine.

EDIT: I obviously have no say in this, it's not my bet. But since this is discussed in a public place, you should expect it to be discussed.

Then who needs escrow?  Unless you are very close to someone, it is foolish to expect them to behave to a standard of your mind.  One is rarely well advised to assume even that an internet counterparty intends to hold to their commitments, and insane to expect them to hold to restraints to which they have not agreed.  Honor is highly idiosyncratic, above and beyond being cultural, and extreme diversity of idiom and culture is to be expected in a global community.

Certainly you could easily drive the market to 435, in a matter of a few minutes work.  Would it even be manipulation if you had intended to put on a big short anyhow?

 

Levels of thinking:

1.   The most common and least complicated; say, you are long and want the price to go up.  You post pictures of trains and rockets and post rebuttals to those opposed to that view.  Most of the participants here fall into this category.

2.   Less common and more difficult to pull off.  Say you are short but pretend to be long.  You enter conversations with those who are long, arguing unconvincingly that the price must rise, thereby giving the impression (to level one thinkers) that the price may, indeed, be ready to decline.

3.   Uncommon and requires much more effort and practice; a combination of 1 & 2 with a large dose of logic, numbers, and charts that back up your supposed position.  So, you are long but you want to influence the level 2 people to believe you are short.  Most of the time you are trying to get the level 2’s angry enough that they will do the opposite of what they believe you want, namely talk up the price so you profit.

4.   There are, supposedly, more levels but they come with increasing complexity.  You run the risk of misjudging and damaging your intent.
 
See also:  Roshambo (Rock, Paper, Scissors) for a game simple enough to be played by pre-school children, but is played by high-rolling gamblers.

For an example, I believe, of level 2 practice, see most of the posts by Proudhon.

Awesome then have fun!!! 

Well, a couple of things.

First of all, if this just came out they should have reacted already, even though they are asleep. Second, we are see profit taking in China this weekend from the dump. There will be more dumps. They always come in multiples. And there is going to be plenty of news over the next 2 weeks.

If it will drop to $420 I am going to sell any BTC and buy a pot to make my self happier

Kiddin...

Yes, it is for fun. Not for changing the world. Like most bets. We can give more to charity if you like, but lets not pretend its something its not. It's for fun and bragging rights

I am a bull at heart. Just a bear in the head for now. Unlike Rpeitila who has been relegated to the sidelines like a nervous cheerleader.